East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[nyrangers1022]

  On 1/16/2022 at 1:51 PM, rclab said:

Good morning nyr1022. You might also have to trade the Rangers for the Panthers. As always ….

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Watching Duclair on the Panthers now, hes some player.  I knew when rangers traded him he would breakout in a few years

[BxEngine]

  On 1/16/2022 at 12:32 PM, wdrag said:

The moderators should collaborate and let me know if they want me to change the thread strategy. If they feel this is not of detrimental value, then they will let me know. Moderators: all yours. 

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You are more than welcome to post whatever you feel is insightful and needed for our forum, you have obviously more than earned that here. 

[Tatamy]

  On 1/16/2022 at 1:49 PM, Shades said:

Belmar NJ reporting snow on station OBS: ocean effect.

Not picking up well on radar, however.

 

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I checked the webcam out there.  Just the SC deck coming in off of the ocean. No flurries there at this time.

[MJO812]

  On 1/16/2022 at 1:57 PM, Tatamy said:

I checked the webcam out there.  Just the SC deck coming in off of the ocean. No flurries there at this time.

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[nycsnow]

Snowing in midtown 

[Brian5671]

  On 1/16/2022 at 12:32 PM, wdrag said:

The moderators should collaborate and let me know if they want me to change the thread strategy. If they feel this is not of detrimental value, then they will let me know. Moderators: all yours. 

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Not at all.  This one didn't go our way but it certainly could have and no one would be complaining.    Leave it as it-we enjoy your thoughts and threads here as is....

[Great Snow 1717]

  On 1/16/2022 at 12:32 PM, wdrag said:

The moderators should collaborate and let me know if they want me to change the thread strategy. If they feel this is not of detrimental value, then they will let me know. Moderators: all yours. 

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Walt all of your contributions are very much appreciated by me. I am sure other members of the forum share the same sentiment. 

Keep posting....actually post more often!

[nycsnow]

Seems like latest nam brings 50+ wind gust nyc east for a longer duration now @bluewave

[MJO812]

  On 1/16/2022 at 2:03 PM, nycsnow said:

Snowing in midtown 

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Ocean effect

[EasternLI]

  On 1/16/2022 at 1:53 PM, EasternLI said:

3k NAM was showing that as a possibility with the flow off the water ramping up. Pretty cool.

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Here's that depiction on the 12z run. It's cool to see that, because it doesn't happen very often. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

  On 1/16/2022 at 2:18 PM, MJO812 said:

Ocean effect

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Nothing showing on radar can anyone else confirm? I’m in Vermont and skipped out on snow removal based on it not snowing in the city 

[wdrag]

Okay, I understand Moderators general hands off.  Thank you all for your strong support.

I have a couple of goals in mind when threads are started. To ensure an impact storm occurs or is real close (ACY 10" 1/3 but bust up here),  and to highlight the accuracy (or inaccuracy) of the many different models physics up to 7 days in advance. Finally, that the impact will include NYC where snow and ice in winter is at a premium. If it's I84 only, I lay off.

Believe me: It takes plenty of time to figure things out and my time is also precious and so I definitely  do not want the membership to be torn away from family for just some weather, especially since so much can go wrong more than 60 hours in advance.

I am confident that the 1 day forecast accuracy when I was growing up in nw NJ in 1960 is now valid as accurate to 5 days in 2022.  To me, this is dedication of researchers and the financial support of platforms-computer power.  Like it or not, there is valuable information well in advance that can prepare the interested consumer to mitigate adverse impact be it winter storms, firestorms, hurricanes, 10+" rains.  Some of our posters are able to mine the gold and share some pretty cool stuff- we're fortunate to share these advance notice posts.

----

Will post Jan 21-23 open ended east coast storm thread-threat to likely (not categorically) followed by  coldest weather of the season around the 24th.  I think we're noticing each cold surge getting a little colder here in the northeast as the month proceeds. I see two more potentially big shots of cold air around here (24th), 27th)... dates fluid.  921A/16

[North and West]

  On 1/16/2022 at 2:21 PM, wdrag said:

Okay, I understand Moderators general hands off.  Thank you all for your strong support.
I have a couple of goals in mind when threads are started. To ensure an impact storm occurs or is real close (ACY 10" 1/3 but bust up here),  and to highlight the accuracy (or inaccuracy) of the many different models physics up to 7 days in advance. Finally, that the impact will include NYC where snow and ice in winter is at a premium. If it's I84 only, I lay off.
Believe me: It takes plenty of time to figure things out and my time is also precious and so I definitely  do not want the membership to be torn away from family for just some weather, especially since so much can go wrong more than 60 hours in advance.
I am confident that the 1 day forecast accuracy when I was growing up in nw NJ in 1960 is now valid as accurate to 5 days in 2022.  To me, this is dedication of researchers and the financial support of platforms-computer power.  Like it or not, there is valuable information well in advance that can prepare the interested consumer to mitigate adverse impact be it winter storms, firestorms, hurricanes, 10+" rains.  Some of our posters are able to mine the gold and share some pretty cool stuff- we're fortunate to share these advance notice posts.
----
Will post Jan 21-23 open ended east coast storm thread-threat to likely (not categorically) followed by  coldest weather of the season around the 24th.  I think we're noticing each cold surge getting a little colder here in the northeast as the month proceeds. I see two more potentially big shots of cold air around here (24th), 27th)... dates fluid.  921A/16

I love your posts! It’s literally the reason why I check this forum from Thanksgiving through March.




.

[ChineseFood4Snow]

  On 1/16/2022 at 2:21 PM, wdrag said:

Okay, I understand Moderators general hands off.  Thank you all for your strong support.

I have a couple of goals in mind when threads are started. To ensure an impact storm occurs or is real close (ACY 10" 1/3 but bust up here),  and to highlight the accuracy (or inaccuracy) of the many different models physics up to 7 days in advance. Finally, that the impact will include NYC where snow and ice in winter is at a premium. If it's I84 only, I lay off.

Believe me: It takes plenty of time to figure things out and my time is also precious and so I definitely  do not want the membership to be torn away from family for just some weather, especially since so much can go wrong more than 60 hours in advance.

I am confident that the 1 day forecast accuracy when I was growing up in nw NJ in 1960 is now valid as accurate to 5 days in 2022.  To me, this is dedication of researchers and the financial support of platforms-computer power.  Like it or not, there is valuable information well in advance that can prepare the interested consumer to mitigate adverse impact be it winter storms, firestorms, hurricanes, 10+" rains.  Some of our posters are able to mine the gold and share some pretty cool stuff- we're fortunate to share these advance notice posts.

----

Will post Jan 21-23 open ended east coast storm thread-threat to likely (not categorically) followed by  coldest weather of the season around the 24th.  I think we're noticing each cold surge getting a little colder here in the northeast as the month proceeds. I see two more potentially big shots of cold air around here (24th), 27th)... dates fluid.  921A/16

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[donsutherland1]

  On 1/16/2022 at 2:21 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Nothing showing on radar can anyone else confirm? I’m in Vermont and skipped out on snow removal based on it not snowing in the city 

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It’s below the radar beam.

[Shades]

  On 1/16/2022 at 2:21 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Nothing showing on radar can anyone else confirm? I’m in Vermont and skipped out on snow removal based on it not snowing in the city 

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It's very light, akin to drizzle (snizzle, if you will). I've observed here in central Queens, the dendrites are miniscule and almost float like dust. It's precipitating from a low cloud base, as advection drizzle would.

[TheManWithNoFace]

  On 1/16/2022 at 2:21 PM, wdrag said:

so I definitely  do not want the membership to be torn away from family for just some weather,

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Heres the thing, Walt. If people wanted to get together on a weather forum to talk about partly cloudy and 45F, it's not anyone's prerogative to stop them. This  whole discussion is totally bizarre. Nobody agrees with the other guy, thanks for doing your thing.  

[donsutherland1]

  On 1/16/2022 at 2:21 PM, wdrag said:

Okay, I understand Moderators general hands off.  Thank you all for your strong support.

I have a couple of goals in mind when threads are started. To ensure an impact storm occurs or is real close (ACY 10" 1/3 but bust up here),  and to highlight the accuracy (or inaccuracy) of the many different models physics up to 7 days in advance. Finally, that the impact will include NYC where snow and ice in winter is at a premium. If it's I84 only, I lay off.

Believe me: It takes plenty of time to figure things out and my time is also precious and so I definitely  do not want the membership to be torn away from family for just some weather, especially since so much can go wrong more than 60 hours in advance.

I am confident that the 1 day forecast accuracy when I was growing up in nw NJ in 1960 is now valid as accurate to 5 days in 2022.  To me, this is dedication of researchers and the financial support of platforms-computer power.  Like it or not, there is valuable information well in advance that can prepare the interested consumer to mitigate adverse impact be it winter storms, firestorms, hurricanes, 10+" rains.  Some of our posters are able to mine the gold and share some pretty cool stuff- we're fortunate to share these advance notice posts.

----

Will post Jan 21-23 open ended east coast storm thread-threat to likely (not categorically) followed by  coldest weather of the season around the 24th.  I think we're noticing each cold surge getting a little colder here in the northeast as the month proceeds. I see two more potentially big shots of cold air around here (24th), 27th)... dates fluid.  921A/16

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I love your posts. There’s always something to learn from seeing the thinking and reading the insights of someone who is truly exceptional in his field.

[Dan76]

  On 1/16/2022 at 2:18 PM, MJO812 said:

Ocean effect

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Looks like its snowing here very dark

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44065

[nycsnow]

Latest nam has nyc east gusting 40-50 by 10pm with a max of 70-80 during early Monday morning hours. Wild 

[NittanyWx]

  On 1/16/2022 at 2:53 PM, nycsnow said:

Latest nam has nyc east gusting 40-50 by 10pm with a max of 70-80 during early Monday morning hours. Wild 

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I was surprised Upton kept the HWW limited to eastern areas, I think most of the Island will verify criteria.

[guinness77]

@wdrag

Youre a large part of the reason I finally made an account after, literally, a decade of lurking here. There are a lot of posters here who really know their shit, and I love sitting here and absorbing the information, but when you start a thread I always take notice and so should everyone else. Thanks for everything. 

[bluewave]

  On 1/16/2022 at 2:04 PM, nycsnow said:

Seems like latest nam brings 50+ wind gust nyc east for a longer duration now @bluewave

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Yeah, the NAM gets the 925mb jet near 75 KT while the strong squall line is crossing the area. The record for January at OKX is very close to those levels. But the balloon launch will probably miss it since the peak winds will be before 12z. So it’s no surprise that the NAM has wind gusts in the 60-70 mph range from near NYC South Shore across Long Island. Some spots especially further east could even see higher gusts than that. 
 

 

[nycsnow]

  On 1/16/2022 at 3:06 PM, NittanyWx said:

I was surprised Upton kept the HWW limited to eastern areas, I think most of the Island will verify criteria.

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Could justify jersey coast through nyc out east imo

[guinness77]

At least the ground should be nice and solid after this kind of cold. That’s the only positive I can say about the wind. Hoping the gusts stay in the 40-50 range and not the 60-70s. 

[nycsnow]

ConEd Alert: We're preparing for severe weather in your area tomorrow. If your power goes out, reply OUT to let us know, and we'll send you updates as restorations progress. Please stay away from downed wires. Reply STOP to opt out of all future outage msgs. Reply HELP for help

[USCG RS]

  On 1/16/2022 at 12:40 PM, IrishRob17 said:

If people don’t like the thread they don’t need to read it or post in it.  People would’ve been posting for a week about this large strong storm regardless. 

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I agree here. It is not the job of a poster - professional or otherwise - to be responsible for the behavior of persons who are gong to obsess over the storm. A thread is a thread and the more information we have, the better.

I don't want to pile on the original poster because I can understand the sentiment, however, to hold someone accountable for starting a legitimate thread due to other persons actions/behaviors is... Just no. 

[hudsonvalley21]

  On 1/16/2022 at 12:32 PM, wdrag said:

The moderators should collaborate and let me know if they want me to change the thread strategy. If they feel this is not of detrimental value, then they will let me know. Moderators: all yours. 

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My opinion, is your posts are excellent. 

[nycsnow]

Gfs has 50mph gust around 10pm with a max of 60-70+ nyc east from around 2am

[jm1220]

  On 1/16/2022 at 2:21 PM, wdrag said:

Okay, I understand Moderators general hands off.  Thank you all for your strong support.

I have a couple of goals in mind when threads are started. To ensure an impact storm occurs or is real close (ACY 10" 1/3 but bust up here),  and to highlight the accuracy (or inaccuracy) of the many different models physics up to 7 days in advance. Finally, that the impact will include NYC where snow and ice in winter is at a premium. If it's I84 only, I lay off.

Believe me: It takes plenty of time to figure things out and my time is also precious and so I definitely  do not want the membership to be torn away from family for just some weather, especially since so much can go wrong more than 60 hours in advance.

I am confident that the 1 day forecast accuracy when I was growing up in nw NJ in 1960 is now valid as accurate to 5 days in 2022.  To me, this is dedication of researchers and the financial support of platforms-computer power.  Like it or not, there is valuable information well in advance that can prepare the interested consumer to mitigate adverse impact be it winter storms, firestorms, hurricanes, 10+" rains.  Some of our posters are able to mine the gold and share some pretty cool stuff- we're fortunate to share these advance notice posts.

----

Will post Jan 21-23 open ended east coast storm thread-threat to likely (not categorically) followed by  coldest weather of the season around the 24th.  I think we're noticing each cold surge getting a little colder here in the northeast as the month proceeds. I see two more potentially big shots of cold air around here (24th), 27th)... dates fluid.  921A/16

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You're an asset and treasure on this board. Keep the contributions coming!