East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

GFS has led the way for sure-it's not the same ol GFS anymore!

There was one run of the gefs where everything went offshore. 

[LoboLeader1]

Is Upton waiting on runs today regarding HWW for the area Sunday night into Monday?

[HailMan06]

42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 12z GFS continues with the 60-70 mph gust theme near the coast with localized higher gusts. 

 

What a mess that would be for Morris County, verbatim.

[Tatamy]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While the 12z hi res Nam is still a little out of its best range, it has a similar look. One wild card for the wind gust potential is where the meso lows pop to the east of the main parent low. The hi res Nam is showing one wind maxima near the Jersey Shore to Western Long Island. Then another stronger one with meso low out near Eastern Long Island.

Was digging into the models and in looking at the HRRR from 12z it seems to be slightly less intense with the strength of the 850mb jet as compared to the NAM.  The result is more snow in inland locations.  The NAM has 1-2” vs 3-6” on the HRRR.  Any thoughts on this?

[jm1220]

54 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Was digging into the models and in looking at the HRRR from 12z it seems to be slightly less intense with the strength of the 850mb jet as compared to the NAM.  The result is more snow in inland locations.  The NAM has 1-2” vs 3-6” on the HRRR.  Any thoughts on this?

HRRR isn’t in its optimal range yet. I wouldn’t pay much attention to it until the event’s almost here. 

[HVSnowLover]

Bizzare winter so far, first we have 60 and then a foot of snow for ACY the next day. Now we have highs in the teens today and rain the next day. 

[NEG NAO]

3 hours ago, Greg g said:

Any storms to look out for on the horizon after this one??

Mainly just rain storms in the immediate NYC metro - this winter continues to be a real clunker here

[HVSnowLover]

1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

Was digging into the models and in looking at the HRRR from 12z it seems to be slightly less intense with the strength of the 850mb jet as compared to the NAM.  The result is more snow in inland locations.  The NAM has 1-2” vs 3-6” on the HRRR.  Any thoughts on this?

Ride the NAM at this range. 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

Mainly just rain storms in the immediate NYC metro - this winter continues to be a real clunker here

Actually just dry no rain

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Bizzare winter so far, first we have 60 and then a foot of snow for ACY the next day. Now we have highs in the teens today and rain the next day. 

Thats the sign of a crummy winter in NYC.........

[NEG NAO]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Actually just dry no rain

good to hear

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

Thats the sign of a crummy winter in NYC.........

plenty of time to go-I remember thinking 12-13 was going to be horrid but then we got monsters in Feb and Mar

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

plenty of time to go-I remember thinking 12-13 was going to be horrid but then we got monsters in Feb and Mar

I don't think this will be like that winter IMO.....

[HVSnowLover]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Thats the sign of a crummy winter in NYC.........

Lucked out on one storm intensifying enough to get 6+ inches, too bad it rained and was gone two days later. 

[Greg g]

3 hours ago, Jt17 said:

Well if it’s not going to snow let it be 50 or 60 every day 

[Greg g]

That was my reply not sure how it got into jt quote 

1 minute ago, Greg g said:

3 hours ago, Jt17 said:

Well if it’s not going to snow let it be 50 or 60 every day 

 

[sussexcountyobs]

3 minutes ago, Greg g said:

That was my reply not sure how it got into jt quote 

 

I'd rather it be 70-80° every day. 

[Greg g]

4 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

I'd rather it be 70-80° every day. 

You got that right but that might be asking too much for Jan or feb 

[USCG RS]

24 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I don't think this will be like that winter IMO.....

Thinking the Nina shows its true colors?

[HVSnowLover]

NAM basically says you have to be in the catskills to get more than an inch of snow. What a waste of cold air region wide. I can't remember an airmass this cold where there wasn't at least some front end snow for a large part of the subforum.   

[NEG NAO]

52 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

10 degree weather followed by a rainstorm and then cold temps again is a real bummer

but I have hope

im a big fan of Larry Cosgroves Facebook posts

 

heres what he had to say:

I suspect a hidden gremlin is the impulse in the subtropical jet stream off of Baja California. Since all of the model ensemble platforms develop a James Bay vortex that interacts with the three jet stream branches near the Virginia Capes January 21, that obscure circulation will hold the moisture and energy keys to both a strong winter weather event and cold wave in the 11-15- and 16-20-day time frames.

Patience. The Siberian Express and a probable Nor'easter are your likely guests during the last ten days of January.

 

Unfortunately I favor the GFS over the Cosgrove model ATM. - GFS gas plenty of potential and it leaves it at that and we get nothing.......

[HVSnowLover]

I'd be worried about icing in the HV west of the Hudson and especially north of 84. If mid and upper levels really warming up that fast we know the cold may hold on longer in those spots in the lower levels plus really cold ground from this weekend. 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Unfortunately I favor the GFS over the Cosgrove model ATM. - GFS gas plenty of potential and it leaves it at that and we get nothing.......

So you are going with an op run that's definitely going to change  instead of a well thought post by a meteorologist?

[White Gorilla]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

So you are going with an op run that's definitely going to change  instead of a well thought post by a meteorologist?

I like LC too.  I definitely take his posts with attention. 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

So you are going with an op run that's definitely going to change  instead of a well thought post by a meteorologist?

yes sir - I am sure the GFS OP was thoughtful too

 

[NittanyWx]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

So you are going with an op run that's definitely going to change  instead of a well thought post by a meteorologist?

Now you know how I feel.

[wdrag]

Considerations: I84 corridor,  hope HRRR and HRRX are too cold. Otherwise quite a snow/ice problem with power outages  That's what Im getting hints of in the 18Z cycle...and the HRRRX is consistent with its 12z cycle.  So, the bias is probably too cold and am looking for warmer cycles, especially the 00z.  I am thinking the warming above 32F-scouring at the surface high valleys I84 corridor may not complete til after sunrise. If that happens, combined snow/ice will be a warning impact for at least some of this area. 

Pressure falls inflow will tend to turn the surface wind ne-or ene despite se isobars, at least in the interior.

As of this mornings WPC cycles: am thinking the freezing rain risk is being underplayed n off I78 and w of I287 (ne NJ/se NYS and ne PA)

Modeling is weakening the coastal flood threat NJ/NYC... onshore 40-50kt winds too short and pass by, by 12z..however low pressure in the 985 MB range gives a decent surge. So flooding possible but more than minor?? Have my doubts but reserve the opportunity to rereview tomorrow morning.

Modeling also seems to trending to run a little east with the storm in the Carolinas then turns due north to DC-CXY to co-locate with the 850-500MB closed lows. 

Modeling also tending to offer only a 6-12 hr period of too warm for snow, suggesting any back side showers will fall as wet snow Monday, certainly the interior hills of w NJ and ne PA  (closed low and colder thicknesses with the cold pool moving ne from DCA-CXY-which will make for steep moist lapse rates it crosses our area).

No thread title adjustments now, but will re-review in the morning. I think it continues yes to serve reasonably well.  

 

 

[eduggs]

32 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

So you are going with an op run that's definitely going to change  instead of a well thought post by a meteorologist?

I definitely would FWIW.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I definitely would FWIW.

So the gfs will never change ? There is a reason why people say look at the ensembles in the mid to long range. 

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I definitely would FWIW.

Models have known biases. Meteorologists have mostly unknown biases.