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East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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wdrag
wdrag

Okay, I understand Moderators general hands off.  Thank you all for your strong support. I have a couple of goals in mind when threads are started. To ensure an impact storm occurs or is real cl

jm1220
jm1220

Geez, so conservative. We can always bump up if needed. 

forkyfork
forkyfork

how hard were the impact tremors when you typed this?

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
  On 1/14/2022 at 7:21 PM, guinness77 said:

Euro model is notorious for over estimating wind speed, right? 

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GFS and NAM both bring 70mph gusts to the coast. Not sure how those do in terms of overestimating wind speeds. All models have a very impressive mid level jet at 850-925mb that can do some damage if they mix down. 

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guinness77

guinness77

Posted
Posted
  On 1/14/2022 at 7:27 PM, jm1220 said:

GFS and NAM both bring 70mph gusts to the coast. Not sure how those do in terms of overestimating wind speeds. All models have a very impressive mid level jet at 850-925mb that can do some damage if they mix down. 

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I’m in Western Suffolk, not right on the water but just above Sunrise Hwy, so I’m always checking on the wind, and, especially, the gusts. I have one tree left on my property, I had 6, and I want to keep this one. I’ve already took anything in that could be damaged, but I always get nervous….wind is just so unforgiving. 

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USCG RS

USCG RS

Posted
Posted
  On 1/14/2022 at 7:27 PM, jm1220 said:

GFS and NAM both bring 70mph gusts to the coast. Not sure how those do in terms of overestimating wind speeds. All models have a very impressive mid level jet at 850-925mb that can do some damage if they mix down. 

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It looks like a quasi-squall line develops. That would easily mix down those gusts. Much like Isaias 

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BxSnowWx37

BxSnowWx37

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Every run is looking a bit more promising if you want frozen precip. The low keeps popping every so slighty east and occlusion happens much faster for nyc compared to the older guidance. It's still possible for this to shift a bit more south and east, esp if the high is under modeled in strength. Any low developing east of acy is gonna be a win for us. Let's see what 18z brings.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
  On 1/14/2022 at 7:57 PM, BxSnowWx37 said:

Every run is looking a bit more promising if you want frozen precip. The low keeps popping every so slighty east and occlusion happens much faster for nyc compared to the older guidance. It's still possible for this to shift a bit more south and east, esp if the high is under modeled in strength. Any low developing east of acy is gonna be a win for us. Let's see what 18z brings.

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It's a low chance 

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Intensewind002

Intensewind002

Posted
Posted
  On 1/14/2022 at 7:30 PM, guinness77 said:

I’m in Western Suffolk, not right on the water but just above Sunrise Hwy, so I’m always checking on the wind, and, especially, the gusts. I have one tree left on my property, I had 6, and I want to keep this one. I’ve already took anything in that could be damaged, but I always get nervous….wind is just so unforgiving. 

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The amount of trees we’ve lost around here dating back to the march 2010 noreaster to present day is pretty crazy, I remember there being much more trees in my neighborhood when i was a kid in the early 2000s

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MegaMike

MegaMike

Posted
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  On 1/14/2022 at 7:21 PM, guinness77 said:

Euro model is notorious for over estimating wind speed, right? 

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This is a good question.

I conducted some evaluations on reanalysis and analysis data (consider it the initialization hour) for multiple modeling systems including the ERA5 (reanalysis system of the ECMWF), FNL (reanalysis system of the GFS), GFS (0.5x0.5deg), HRRR (3km), NAM (12km), and RAP (13km). All modeling systems predominately underestimate wind speed and overestimate wind gust. Keep in mind, I ran the evaluations for the entire month at 00, 06, 12, 18 UTC, therefore, the results are skewed in favor of fair weather conditions.

I actually posted the results online for a couple reasons - 

 

 

When I ran evaluations operationally (WRF w/NAM and GFS forecast data), results were similar... Obviously, expect more erratic error past forecast hour 6.

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BxSnowWx37

BxSnowWx37

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  On 1/14/2022 at 7:58 PM, MJO812 said:

It's a low chance 

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At this point to have any chance at all would be a win,all I'm saying is run per run it's still a possibility that this goes east,im not sold on the whole hard phase. Its also kind of hard to get a low to go almost due north in any climotological setting,even with minimal blocking. 

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted
  On 1/14/2022 at 7:57 PM, BxSnowWx37 said:

Every run is looking a bit more promising if you want frozen precip. The low keeps popping every so slighty east and occlusion happens much faster for nyc compared to the older guidance. It's still possible for this to shift a bit more south and east, esp if the high is under modeled in strength. Any low developing east of acy is gonna be a win for us. Let's see what 18z brings.

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The ship has sailed on a snowstorm for the metro area. The fat lady is signing 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
  On 1/14/2022 at 7:57 PM, BxSnowWx37 said:

Every run is looking a bit more promising if you want frozen precip. The low keeps popping every so slighty east and occlusion happens much faster for nyc compared to the older guidance. It's still possible for this to shift a bit more south and east, esp if the high is under modeled in strength. Any low developing east of acy is gonna be a win for us. Let's see what 18z brings.

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If the 850 and 700mb lows stay wrapped up and west of us, there’s little chance of any more than very brief snow at the start in the city that’s quickly gone/over to heavy rain. The surface low track isn’t too relevant for us. The flow is from the E/SE aloft and at the surface which warms us up fast. 

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BxSnowWx37

BxSnowWx37

Posted
Posted
  On 1/14/2022 at 8:11 PM, jm1220 said:

If the 850 and 700mb lows stay wrapped up and west of us, there’s little chance of any more than very brief snow at the start in the city that’s quickly gone/over to heavy rain. The surface low track isn’t too relevant for us. The flow is from the E/SE aloft and at the surface which warms us up fast. 

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I agree ..but recent runs do show occlusion happening much faster for us in the upper levels. The euro,rgem and navgem show this scenario. It would cut off that  that easterly flow fast if trickles east or pops a new low east,which some models are hinting at. 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
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  On 1/14/2022 at 8:16 PM, jfklganyc said:

I noticed you guys keep mentioning Lee Goldberg. I see AccuWeather still has 3 to 6 inches of snow.

What are they seeing that we aren’t?

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Couldn’t really care less what Accuweather says here. If they’re saying 3-6” for NYC in this, they’re a joke. Maybe 3-6 mangled flakes at the start.

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matt8204

matt8204

Posted
Posted
  On 1/14/2022 at 8:16 PM, jfklganyc said:

I noticed you guys keep mentioning Lee Goldberg. I see AccuWeather still has 3 to 6 inches of snow.

What are they seeing that we aren’t?

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The mainstream outlets are sometimes a little behind the curve in terms of updating their forecasts.  I'm sure they'll reflect the changes by this evening.

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted
  On 1/14/2022 at 8:17 PM, jm1220 said:

Couldn’t really care less what Accuweather says here. If they’re saying 3-6” for NYC in this, they’re a joke. Maybe 3-6 mangled flakes at the start.

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The new NAM is a complete torch. It has less than an inch of snow total, all the way up here in Rockland county. The boundary layer got even warmer than it had at 12z and the midlevels torch before the precip even starts. This may be a brief period of sleet at the onset to all rain 

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