East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[hudsonvalley21]

17 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Is that the expected snow amount map, or the high end 10% chance map? Seems to match the Mt. Holly high end map that is about 10% chance.

It looks like Upton is going with a snow and heavy at times inland changing to a mixed bag where Mt.Holly is going with a mixed bag forecast in your area without the thump at the onset.

[MJO812]

 

[EasternLI]

^ That's the shortwave thats the biggest problem with this thing. You can see how it just dives in and tilts the whole system west. 

[the_other_guy]

29 pages later that’s the best graphic to explain situation. 

Thanks for sharing

[lee59]

Interesting that the GFS went more east this morning. Went from near Philly to near Atlantic City, just what lee Goldberg was mentioning yesterday. Not saying it will happen or giving him credit because it has not happened, just saying.

[lee59]

35 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It’s not news that NYC is generally a lousy place for snow. Central Park averages 30” annually (boosted considerably by how lucky we’ve been in the last decade) while the Catskills average 70+. Syracuse averages over 120”. I noticed @sferic moved to Cicero near Syracuse. Hate it that much, do what he/she did. 

We have boom and bust cycles lately where we have a monster 30” Feb 2021 or little/nothing.

If you compare NYC to Catskills and Syracuse it is a lousy place for snow. Compare it to Ocean City Md. or Cape May N.J. and it isn't so bad. Depends on perspective and if you like snow or not.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, lee59 said:

Interesting that the GFS went more east this morning. Went from near Philly to near Atlantic City, just what lee Goldberg was mentioning yesterday. Not saying it will happen or giving him credit because it has not happened, just saying.

We’re not really concerned with the surface low tracks at this point. Pay a lot more attention to the mid level lows which still look to go well inland. They also have plenty of time before getting here to wrap in warm air since the storm is maturing. Models still show a very powerful SE jet at the mid levels which will warm those layers up quickly. 

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

^ That's the shortwave thats the biggest problem with this thing. You can see how it just dives in and tilts the whole system west. 

Yep

[Tatamy]

47 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

Unless things change drastically everyone is changing over within 3 hours of precip onset.  It is a very, very brief window it can snow here before the column warms.  GFS this AM has the 0C 850 isotherm north of 287 by between 11pm and 12 AM Monday. 

 

You'd need the entire mid-level low structure shifted about 150-200 miles to make this work.

I am in eastern PA, 80 miles west of NYC.  I am figuring on 2-3 hours of snow then a quick flip to sleet/ice/rain in that order.  That 850mb jet means business and the NAM / RGEM seems to be leading the way with this feature.  As depicted that jet will be whistling over our heads at Cat 2 hurricane strength early Monday morning.  The source region will be from out over the Atlantic so it won’t be bringing cold air with it either.

[lee59]

I guess one big question is how hard does it snow at the onset. If you are in an area that has even 3 hours of snow, is it possible you could get a quick 3-5 inches.

[lee59]

Where I am, I am expecting the winds to be the biggest factor in this storm.

[EasternLI]

You're actually sucking up tropical moisture into this thing. Check out the moisture feed. This image also helps to show how WNY is under the gun for the most snow with this. If you look closely at the wind barbs, the 850 jet grinds to a halt around Binghamton. So in simple terms the moisture piles up, is lifted and is dumped as snow on WNY. This is another illustration of why mid level low tracks are very important as well. Instead of the little red L on surface maps. 

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The NAM is even stronger with the storm than the last run. It now has 60-70 mph gusts near the coast. This coincides with the Monday morning high tide cycle. So it  will maximize the coastal flooding potential.

 

 

Yikes. 70 mph right up to the coast. There’ll definitely be outages and flooding if that happens. I’ll be in Long Beach this weekend, could be some washovers. 

[coastalplainsnowman]

40 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Where I am, I am expecting the winds to be the biggest factor in this storm.

Does anyone else find that in storms like these that the winds infrequently -- not always, but infrequently -- come close to materializing, or at least are so localized that it seems that way for most?  I'm talking about Long Island in particular.  Anecdotal, I know, but feels like I've had maybe a storm every two years here where 60mph plus gusts are expected, and it turns out to be not just not very windy, but downright calm, and I'm thinking 'what the heck?'

[lee59]

2 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Does anyone else find that in storms like these that the winds infrequently -- not always, but infrequently -- come close to materializing, or at least are so localized that it seems that way for most?  I'm talking about Long Island in particular.  Anecdotal, I know, but feels like I've had maybe a storm every two years here where 60mph plus gusts are expected, and it turns out to be not just not very windy, but downright calm, and I'm thinking 'what the heck?'

I don't find when strong winds are expected that we get very little or calm winds. I do know that the extreme wind gusts that are forecast, generally occur at airports or right on the coast, exposed locations. Of course that makes sense.

[jm1220]

NAM is so warm in the mid levels that it switches almost the whole state of PA to an ice storm. I have to think that’s a little extreme but goes to show that anyone in our area that starts as snow, it’ll be quite brief. 

[nycsnow]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The NAM is even stronger with the storm than the last run. It now has 60-70 mph gusts near the coast. This coincides with the Monday morning high tide cycle. So it  will maximize the coastal flooding potential.

 

 

Gfs has 40-50mph Sunday night ramping up 60-70+ for a few hours over night into am!

[Tatamy]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

NAM is so warm in the mid levels that it switches almost the whole state of PA to an ice storm. I have to think that’s a little extreme but goes to show that anyone in our area that starts as snow, it’ll be quite brief. 

I saw that graphic a short time ago as well.  Folks in the western part of the state have been progged to get a big dumping on the models and still are on the globals.  The NAM doesn’t play favorites does it??

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

I saw that graphic a short time ago as well.  Folks in the western part of the state have been progged to get a big dumping on the models and still are on the globals.  The NAM doesn’t play favorites does it??

NAM can be overdone with the mid level warmth but it’s usually closer to reality than the globals. 

[EasternLI]

If that trailing shortwave comes in any stronger, this thing could actually amp up a bit further west than shown now too. That thing is still offshore. Will be onshore for tomorrow's model runs. 

[Brian5671]

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

NAM is so warm in the mid levels that it switches almost the whole state of PA to an ice storm. I have to think that’s a little extreme but goes to show that anyone in our area that starts as snow, it’ll be quite brief. 

I doubt anyone on LI/NYC Jersey coast sees any snow.   SE winds will be picking up before any precip arrives

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

If that trailing shortwave comes in any stronger, this thing could actually amp up a bit further west than shown now too. That thing is still offshore. Will be onshore for tomorrow's model runs. 

Absolutely and there's not much to stop this from doing so. 

[nycsnow]

Wonder if upton drops a high wind watch this afternoon 

[Tatamy]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

NAM can be overdone with the mid level warmth but it’s usually closer to reality than the globals. 

My rule of thumb has been if we are dealing with a potential winter storm that you think can bring mixing / taint issues then you want to see a mid level jet from a warm source region of at least 20 - 30 mph to ensure that changeover happens.  I will be the first to admit that this is a general statement and is oversimplifying  the atmospheric processes involved however I seen this play out time and again.  In any case the 850mb jet we are seeing will be from the SE at up to 90 mph for a few hours Monday morning.  

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

My rule of thumb has been if we are dealing with a potential winter storm that you think can bring mixing / taint issues then you want to see a mid level jet from a warm source region of at least 20 - 30 mph to ensure that changeover happens.  I will be the first to admit that this is a general statement and is oversimplifying  the atmospheric processes involved however I seen this play out time and again.  In any case the 850mb jet we are seeing will be from the SE at up to 90 mph for a few hours Monday morning.  

For sure. When you see a roaring SE mid level jet like models are showing, a lot of the snow maps on the SE edge are going to be overdone because you know the sleet line is going to explode northward. On the west side of the storm though there definitely will be an axis of heavy snow totals since those winds slow down and cause a region of quickly rising air where the deform axis forms. Unfortunately that’ll be way far west-if you believe the NAM it’ll be from E OH to Buffalo up into Canada. 

Concerning how much of that jet is shown to mix down near the coast. If it coincides with high tides there could be some serious problems in vulnerable flooding spots since ESE winds will pile in lots of water. 

[eduggs]

NAM, RGEM, ICON all pretty locked so far at 12z. Meteorologically interesting but hideous for snow enthusiasts. Maybe we can score a few intense snowsqualls for on Monday.

[Tatamy]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

For sure. When you see a roaring SE mid level jet like models are showing, a lot of the snow maps on the SE edge are going to be overdone because you know the sleet line is going to explode northward. On the west side of the storm though there definitely will be an axis of heavy snow totals since those winds slow down and cause a region of quickly rising air where the deform axis forms. Unfortunately that’ll be way far west-if you believe the NAM it’ll be from E OH to Buffalo up into Canada. 

Concerning how much of that jet is shown to mix down near the coast. If it coincides with high tides there could be some serious problems in vulnerable flooding spots since ESE winds will pile in lots of water. 

Very true.  The upside of this is that this won’t last over multiple tidal cycles.  If it did it would be a much more serious issue. For coastal areas I think that the biggest concern will be strong winds leading to power outages.

[LoboLeader1]

29 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Wonder if upton drops a high wind watch this afternoon 

Usually posted 24hrs prior to the event.

[nycsnow]

Just now, LoboLeader1 said:

Usually posted 24hrs prior to the event.

For the warning I believe, I think they can issue a watch earlier 

[HVSnowLover]

Gets uglier and uglier by the run. GFS is all rain for city and even up to I287. Maybe thats almost better than having a half inch of slop be washed away.