East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

44 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The cupboard is bare; the pipeline is dry. We just a major snowstorm (for some) now likely followed by two anomalously deep trofs with strong associated SLP. This was our shot.

I have a feeling there are a good number of additional shots ahead. I'm intrigued at the period around January 26th and January 30th. There's plenty more cold air and I think we're going to see some of the coldest air we've seen in about 4 years later this month.

WX/PT

[nycsnow]

Models are starting to be very consistent with some incredibly strong winds esp nyc east. Might be the first high impact wind and costal flooding event we’ve had in a while

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, eduggs said:

The cupboard is bare; the pipeline is dry. We just a major snowstorm (for some) now likely followed by two anomalously deep trofs with strong associated SLP. This was our shot.

we will have chances after the 20th....if not oh well.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I have a feeling there are a good number of additional shots ahead. I'm intrigued at the period around January 26th and January 30th. There's plenty more cold air and I think we're going to see some of the coldest air we've seen in about 4 years later this month.

WX/PT

maybe even go below zero?

fwiw so much cold air is actually  a bad sign for snow and indicates suppression.

we want normal cold air not the extreme stuff

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, jm1220 said:

All you need to know about that NAM run. Is it overdone-maybe, but it doesn't matter that the sfc low track went SE. That SE jet at 850 is an inferno of mid level warmth coming in. It actually has a good chunk of the event in central PA as freezing rain verbatim and the good snow is in E OH/NW PA. For most of us it's heavy rain since that'll also transport lots of Atlantic moisture and there could be some very strong wind if the jet can mix down. 925mb winds are also upwards of 75kt. 

that 850 low is really annoying, it's why I like vertically stacked systems so you don't need to worry about it

[wdrag]

Basic thread headline looks acceptable to me still well in advance of the Sunday night-Monday morning storm.  I'll rereview everything this event and possibly improve the headline but I just don't want to lock out possibilities yet.  I know it says Noon Sunday start. I'm protecting at a slightly faster forward motion. And it looks like very little snow LI/coasts (less than 2", if that but it still could be messy for an hour or two, especially if cold air damming even holds sway along the coast for a little while.  Have a good day: will revisit this evening.  

[wdrag]

Added 10z/14 ensemble chance of 1" and 4+" of snow: both by 7AM Monday. 

More careful details and graphics post this evening.  The NWS GIS snowfall was only thru 7PM Sunday as of this writing so useless to post. 

[jm1220]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

maybe even go below zero?

fwiw so much cold air is actually  a bad sign for snow and indicates suppression.

we want normal cold air not the extreme stuff

Our chance at something big would be when the pattern shifts. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Our chance at something big would be when the pattern shifts. 

Shifts to what? The pattern has  changed.

[MJO812]

8 hours ago, eduggs said:

The cupboard is bare; the pipeline is dry. We just a major snowstorm (for some) now likely followed by two anomalously deep trofs with strong associated SLP. This was our shot.

At first this storm looked really flat

Then it looked good and now it's too far inland. Being a coastie is really tough.

We need a great pattern for us. 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Shifts to what? The pattern has  changed.

From cold to milder within the upcoming pattern. Usually big storms happen when these patterns shift. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

From cold to milder within the upcoming pattern. Usually big storms happen when these patterns shift. 

Very true but we need to capitalize now with this cold pattern. 

[Yanksfan]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Very true but we need to capitalize now with this cold pattern. 

After this storm the potential really ramps  up. If we don’t see a 12+ event by months end then it’s a massive failure.

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

After this storm the potential really ramps  up. If we don’t see a 12+ event by months end then it’s a massive failure.

Yes hopefully. Nothing worse than cold/dry. I'd rather it be 60-70F if that's the case.

[crossbowftw3]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Yes hopefully. Nothing worse than cold/dry. I'd rather it be 60-70F if that's the case.

Do I hear another February with an 80 degree day? 

[North and West]

At first this storm looked really flat
Then it looked good and now it's too far inland. Being a coastie is really tough.
We need a great pattern for us. 

I don’t agree. When it doesn’t snow, everyone acts like it never snows in the New York metro area. This how we get averages.


.

[jm1220]

And this is a big storm even if for most of us it’ll be rain. That SE jet means business and the Euro had gusts over 70 mph near the coast. We might have moderate to major coastal flooding in spots too. That’ll be the main story in this sub forum. 

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Do I hear another February with an 80 degree day? 

Hey - last time we baked in February (2018) we had a 4.5 inch snowfall between 70 degree days followed by the snowiest March/April pattern of all time!

Let's do that again.

[wishcast_hater]

I went to bed at 8:00 last night hoping for a change, when I saw that this thread just had 1 extra page from where I left off last night I knew it was over.

[SnoSki14]

15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

And this is a big storm even if for most of us it’ll be rain. That SE jet means business and the Euro had gusts over 70 mph near the coast. We might have moderate to major coastal flooding in spots too. That’ll be the main story in this sub forum. 

We'll have to see if that ramps up as we get closer.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

We'll have to see if that ramps up as we get closer.

Do you really think 70 +mph gusts will occur? This isn't a tropical storm.

[NittanyWx]

13 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Yes we're all aware of the strong LLJ but that CAD signature over the Hudson Valley is no joke. Perhaps 15 miles inland was a little bullish, but I think a lot of areas North of 287 and west of the GSP have a better chance of just drying up due to the proximity of the mid level lows rather than flip to rain. NYC South and East is a completely different ballgame unless things change drastically. 

Unless things change drastically everyone is changing over within 3 hours of precip onset.  It is a very, very brief window it can snow here before the column warms.  GFS this AM has the 0C 850 isotherm north of 287 by between 11pm and 12 AM Monday. 

 

You'd need the entire mid-level low structure shifted about 150-200 miles to make this work.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, NittanyWx said:

Unless things change drastically everyone is changing over within 3 hours of precip onset.  It is a very, very brief window it can snow here before the column warms.  GFS this AM has the 0C 850 isotherm north of 287 by between 11pm and 12 AM Monday. 

 

You'd need the entire mid-level low structure shifted about 150-200 miles to make this work.

Hoping to reach 1 inch here in SW CT of snow sleet mix.

Just want to pad the stats.

[hudsonvalley21]

[sussexcountyobs]

9 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Is that the expected snow amount map, or the high end 10% chance map? Seems to match the Mt. Holly high end map that is about 10% chance.

[hudsonvalley21]

1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Is that the expected snow amount map, or the high end 10% chance map? Seems to match the Mt. Holly high end map that is about 10% chance.

That’s the expected map below is the high end. Not much different.

 

[jm1220]

43 minutes ago, North and West said:

I don’t agree. When it doesn’t snow, everyone acts like it never snows in the New York metro area. This how we get averages.


.

It’s not news that NYC is generally a lousy place for snow. Central Park averages 30” annually (boosted considerably by how lucky we’ve been in the last decade) while the Catskills average 70+. Syracuse averages over 120”. I noticed @sferic moved to Cicero near Syracuse. Hate it that much, do what he/she did. 

We have boom and bust cycles lately where we have a monster 30” Feb 2021 or little/nothing.

[North and West]

It’s not news that NYC is generally a lousy place for snow. Central Park averages 30” annually (boosted considerably by how lucky we’ve been in the last decade) while the Catskills average 70+. Syracuse averages over 120”. I noticed [mention=4098]sferic[/mention] moved to Cicero near Syracuse. Hate it that much, do what he/she did. 
We have boom and bust cycles lately where we have a monster 30” Feb 2021 or little/nothing.

That was my point.


.

[sferic]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It’s not news that NYC is generally a lousy place for snow. Central Park averages 30” annually (boosted considerably by how lucky we’ve been in the last decade) while the Catskills average 70+. Syracuse averages over 120”. I noticed @sferic moved to Cicero near Syracuse. Hate it that much, do what he/she did. 

We have boom and bust cycles lately where we have a monster 30” Feb 2021 or little/nothing.

Actually still have Lynbrook and Liberty houses just broadened my horizons

 

Love Long island, hate the rain snow line creeping up the coastt LOL

[the_other_guy]

13 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It’s not news that NYC is generally a lousy place for snow. Central Park averages 30” annually (boosted considerably by how lucky we’ve been in the last decade) while the Catskills average 70+. Syracuse averages over 120”. I noticed @sferic moved to Cicero near Syracuse. Hate it that much, do what he/she did. 

We have boom and bust cycles lately where we have a monster 30” Feb 2021 or little/nothing.

You don’t even need to do that if you moved up to Westchester or Rockland there is still snow on the ground in many places.

 

New York City was never a good place for us snow because it’s too warm. In a warming climate, even with monster storms, you have less ground cover days because the temperature has warmed so dramatically and the overnight lows in the urban core have been particularly affected.

I notice that this week with a lot of moans and groans of no winter. Many of us still have spotty snow cover and it makes a bad winter much more palatable