East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[Tatamy]

The 18z Euro has run.  The overall presentation of expected snow amounts is similar however the 850mb low does track very slightly further west on this run.

[NittanyWx]

57 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Between I-287 and I-80... maybe even I-78 I definitely think there could be a few hours of snow before any flip. Decent cold in place with a slight upglide into terrain with that wind direction should be sufficient. A relatively early occlusion in VA might actually help us blunt the warm surge slightly. I also think north of the City into Rockland, and parts of Westchester could put down a little snow as well. I agree the duration is likely to be relatively brief. But it could be intense for however long it lasts.

A small period is fine.  I'd take the under on snow duration even up by 287/80 if thats the setup we get, you'll warm the 900-700 column very quickly with that setup.

 

That's not to say the GFS is even right on the the track or occlusion timing, but that 700mb low track is no good.  This ain't it.  

[NittanyWx]

I am very interested in the timing of high tide vs LLJ cranking as this storm develop for Jersey.  Thankfully I believe that has the worst of the winds are in between high tide cycles, but subtle differences in timing could make for a pretty rough coastal flooding situation.

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep only 2 models showed snow 

Better like this than to be let down with a last minute northwest trend. This is one of those where we know it's not our storm and at this point it's like hope for the best which would be front frozen precip hanging on a bit longer. 

[SnowGoose69]

The issue is solely at the surface for the coast (as far as the first 6 hours anyway)...18Z Euro is not bad aloft 00-06z Sun night/Mon AM but with 090-100 15-20kts you'd probably get 34-35 at a depth of 2000 feet and rain...if...if that high is slower or the models are not seeing somewhat of a wedging impact yet and the winds are more 060-80 there could be 2-3 inches at the coast...especially NYC proper

[Tatamy]

3 minutes ago, sheahunter said:

Be careful with Hunter, this sort of setup screams lots of sleet, wind and with the warmth aloft maybe even worse. Seen it too many times

Your caution is well advised however the poster did not want to travel more than 100 miles from the NYC area.  As others have noted this one definitely has the look of being mainly a snow producer for areas in central and western PA and NY state.

[Rjay]

Excited for my squall line

[Tatamy]

16 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

I am very interested in the timing of high tide vs LLJ cranking as this storm develops midweek for Jersey.  Thankfully I believe that has the worst of the winds in between high tide, but subtle differences in timing could make for a pretty rough coastal flooding situation.

If there is an upside here the forward movement of the storm system is such that it is not likely to cause flooding through multiple tidal cycles.

[HVSnowLover]

1 hour ago, Wannabehippie said:

Which model is suggesting a path SE of what most are showing, that he can say that?

The GFS is the furthest SE model right now but is still not showing significant snow near the coast.  

[jm1220]

12 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

The GFS is the furthest SE model right now but is still not showing significant snow near the coast.  

We’re probably beyond the point where it can make much of a difference snow wise near the coast. Maybe the high can hang on a little longer and make it a 1-2 hour period of good snow but we’d need a major change to get it to where it’s a snow event near the city. We’d need a couple hundred mile shift SE with all the major mid level features. 

[eduggs]

55 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

I would take Hunter over MPO in a heartbeat.  Hunter is close to 4000’ above MSL while MPO is 2000’.  Track will be key of course.

That's true. But I wasn't even thinking of mountain tops... I was more thinking of towns on or near highways. The town of Hunter is approx. 2000ft asl and a great place for easterly-flow coastals. That's why it's my first choice. But the area near Mt. Pocono is right off I-80 and a little closer, although only about 1200ft or so. Right now you'd have to go out to central or western PA to get into any kind of deform. So Catskills are probably the better choice.

[EasternLI]

Only way I could see any meaningful changes one way or another, is if changes occur with handling that northern vort digging in on the backside. It's still out in the Pacific. But that just seems like a long shot TBH. 

[Tatamy]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

That's true. But I wasn't even thinking of mountain tops... I was more thinking of towns on or near highways. The town of Hunter is approx. 2000ft asl and a great place for easterly-flow coastals. That's why it's my first choice. But the area near Mt. Pocono is right off I-80 and a little closer, although only about 1200ft or so. Right now you'd have to go out to central or western PA to get into any kind of deform. So Catskills are probably the better choice.

I was thinking of the ski resort at Hunter Mtn. which is much higher.  KMPO where the airport observing site is at 1886ft (from the Mt. Holly website).  The town itself is a couple of hundred feet lower.

[EasternLI]

EPS 18z  

[eduggs]

13 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

I was thinking of the ski resort at Hunter Mtn. which is much higher.  KMPO where the airport observing site is at 1886ft (from the Mt. Holly website).  The town itself is a couple of hundred feet lower.

Base lodge is about 1700', top of lift elevation is about 3200'.

Top of Hunter Mountain is 4039'

[mikem81]

18z Navgem for the win!!! We are desperate 

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

EPS 18z  

2 lows to keep track of 

[tomcatct]

1 minute ago, mikem81 said:

18z Navgem for the win!!! We are desperate 

JMA will pull the coup

[mikem81]

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, tomcatct said:

JMA will pull the coup

Feb 2006

[tomcatct]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Feb 2006

Jan 1996

[North and West]

.

[Northof78]

NAM well S/E

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_078_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

NAM well S/E

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_078_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

heavy rain for most here

[Brian5671]

Flood watches are likely if this verifies

[Rjay]

38 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

NAM well S/E

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_078_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

 

[jm1220]

All you need to know about that NAM run. Is it overdone-maybe, but it doesn't matter that the sfc low track went SE. That SE jet at 850 is an inferno of mid level warmth coming in. It actually has a good chunk of the event in central PA as freezing rain verbatim and the good snow is in E OH/NW PA. For most of us it's heavy rain since that'll also transport lots of Atlantic moisture and there could be some very strong wind if the jet can mix down. 925mb winds are also upwards of 75kt. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Just tiny baby shifts east with the track though it's not really going to make that much of a difference. The cold air is gone and winds are gusting up to 60mph out of the east-southeast. Bring on the next one.

WX/PT

[eduggs]

Could be some wrap around snow showers on Monday 

[eduggs]

12 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Just tiny baby shifts east with the track though it's not really going to make that much of a difference. The cold air is gone and winds are gusting up to 60mph out of the east-southeast. Bring on the next one.

WX/PT

The cupboard is bare; the pipeline is dry. We just a major snowstorm (for some) now likely followed by two anomalously deep trofs with strong associated SLP. This was our shot.