East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[romba]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Exactly. If we keep this cold pattern and +PNA there will be more chances in the future. As others pointed out and I said yesterday, if the mid level lows go west of you there won’t be much snow for you. Maybe sleet inland but it would be quick snow to rain on the coast if that. You want those tracking east of you if you’re hoping for snow. Any run that shows them west of you is bad news. 

So ideally 500, 700, 850 lows should track East for snow. Does surface lp matter or not really?

[jm1220]

Just now, romba said:

So ideally 500, 700, 850 lows should track East for snow. Does surface lp matter or not really?

Doesn’t really matter all that much for big snow accum. The surface low east of you can keep surface winds northerly but the mid levels would still be torched due to the mid level low bad tracks. And even out ahead of the surface low there looks to be prolonged easterly flow which would torch people near the coast anyway. 

You want to be in central PA, central/northern NY for this event. Anywhere west of those mid level lows really. 

[HVSnowLover]

25 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Yes everybody is going to mix with this setup but front end dump is definitely on the table for N and W. Surface temps are also important though when you look at sleet and ZR vs just plain rain. It may be that 50+ N and W doesn't get that much rain if cold air is locked in at the surface. It's something we just don't know yet and topography plays a big part in that. Remember it's going to be very cold this weekend. 

I think we need this to be faster and more progressive. The longer the low is over land with onshore flow and east wind is going to warm the surface. The city is now already above freezing when precip starts on most models and going straight to rain. Interior will get a thump but want it coming in fast and heavy for more than a few hours of heavy snow to ice/rain scenario inland.    

[Wxoutlooksblog]

The surface high pressure is horribly located for snow. The HP source of cold air must be over Ontario stretching into the mid west and Great Lakes. There is no likelihood of this storm being all or mostly snow for any coastal locations as long as the antecedent HP moves east into the Atlantic. Could the storm actually wrap the HP back into its circulation? It's extremely rare for that to happen.

WX/PT

[eduggs]

The deform almost gets to Cleveland on the 12z UK. Just light snow accumulations there now. Maybe next run will get them.

[eduggs]

10 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

The surface high pressure is horribly located for snow. The HP source of cold air must be over Ontario stretching into the mid west and Great Lakes. There is no likelihood of this storm being all or mostly snow for any coastal locations as long as the antecedent HP moves east into the Atlantic. Could the storm actually wrap the HP back into its circulation? It's extremely rare for that to happen.

WX/PT

If we could just figure out why the HP is doing that...

[jm1220]

15 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

The surface high pressure is horribly located for snow. The HP source of cold air must be over Ontario stretching into the mid west and Great Lakes. There is no likelihood of this storm being all or mostly snow for any coastal locations as long as the antecedent HP moves east into the Atlantic. Could the storm actually wrap the HP back into its circulation? It's extremely rare for that to happen.

WX/PT

Yep. When you look at the KU book for what happened before big inland snowstorms that about sums it up. The flow turns easterly as the storm arrives which kills any chance at significant snow near the coast. Maybe at best something brief that gets washed away. 

[snowman19]

25 minutes ago, eduggs said:

If we could just figure out why the HP is doing that...

No -NAO block to trap the high/confluence, it just slides off into the Atlantic and we are already into return flow by the time the precip gets here. It also doesn’t force secondary redevelopment off shore

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

This looks like a 1 to 3 followed by heavy rain for me. Meh. Focusing on the Long Range now.

I'd be surprised with 3-maybe a coating that is quickly washed away especially south of the merritt

[jm1220]

I’m actually happy for the central PA crowd that should get a significant to major event here. They very rarely have gotten big snow events over the past 15-20 years other than a couple of exceptions like 3/14/17 and last Dec’s storm. And the ski resorts are begging for this.

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I'd be surprised with 3-maybe a coating that is quickly washed away especially south of the merritt

Just going by the events of the early 90s. Had this setup and usually was 1 to 3 followed by rain. 

The latest EURO snow map looks exactly like what I saw back then.

 

 

 

[MJO812]

This reminds me of a classic 90s storm

 few inches of snow then drizzle. 

[HVSnowLover]

Euro is a little better but still far from cutting it for the city. Sharp cutoff about 1 inch for me and 4 inches 5 miles to my north. 

[romba]

Slight improvements on the Euro at 500 and the surface, but still too way too far west for the city/coast.

[jm1220]

Just now, romba said:

Slight improvements on the Euro at 500 and the surface, but still too way too far west for the city/coast.

If those mid level lows are still west of me and the high is still getting chased out, I couldn’t care less about minor changes. Might just make the rain a degree or two colder. 

[HVSnowLover]

12z Euro is actually pretty good for a large part of the NW crew. I think for them it depends how long the primary holds on and how far west the mid level lows track in terms of snow vs slop. The coast needs a miracle.  

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

If those mid level lows are still west of me and the high is still getting chased out, I couldn’t care less about minor changes. Might just make the rain a degree or two colder. 

How many times in the past have the models been wrong with the CAD ? If we get a good track we will snow then possibly change to rain. This is far from over.

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Euro is a little better but still far from cutting it for the city. Sharp cutoff about 1 inch for me and 4 inches 5 miles to my north. 

Beware those 10:1 ratio maps on Pivotal weather, it’s counting sleet as snow. Look at the Euro mid-level low tracks, they are west of us. The midlevels are going to torch, a lot of that is going to be sleet and not snow

[EastonSN+]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

12z Euro is actually pretty good for a large part of the NW crew. I think for them it depends how long the primary holds on in terms of snow vs slop. The coast needs a miracle.  

Yeah already punting here in SW CT.

Looking ahead, hoping for more events while we are in phase 8.

[White Gorilla]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Beware those 10:1 ratio maps on Pivotal weather, it’s counting sleet as snow. Look at the mid-level low tracks, they are west of us. The midlevels are going to torch, a lot of that is going to be sleet and not snow

Have to agree even up here near 84.  More sleet than snow sadly. 

[HVSnowLover]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This reminds me of a classic 90s storm

 few inches of snow then drizzle. 

I almost miss those storms even though snow to ice to rain is sorta of depressing. However I remember those storms in the 90s having much colder airmass at onset. This storm is starting at best upper 20s-30 in the metro area. Those storms used to start in the teens. 

[wishcast_hater]

1 minute ago, White Gorilla said:

Have to agree even up here near 84.  More sleet than snow sadly. 

I will take sleet over rain - the kids can still go sledding. 
 

80’s and early 90’s all over again. Except this time I’m 70 miles North of Manhattan

[Nibor]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

How many times in the past have the models been wrong with the CAD ? If we get a good track we will snow then possibly change to rain. This is far from over.

Eh, the door is about an inch away from closing.

[nyrangers1022]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

I almost miss those storms even though snow to ice to rain is sorta of depressing. However I remember those storms in the 90s having much colder airmass at onset. This storm is starting at best upper 20s-30 in the metro area. Those storms used to start in the teens. 

I remember being a kid in these storms.  We would have 4 of us friends shovel out a football field at his grandmas yard.  Play football for a few hours and ultimately turned to sleet and then rain.  Seemed like every storm did that here too in orange County

[Northof78]

Again, 4"+ thump from about Rt.78 N and NYC area and W. Models are starting to converge on this solution. 

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah already punting here in SW CT.

Looking ahead, hoping for more events while we are in phase 8.

hopefully this low becomes a 50/50

[mikem81]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

hopefully this low becomes a 50/50

Tomorrow's storm failing us in this respect...

[White Gorilla]

14 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

I will take sleet over rain - the kids can still go sledding. 
 

80’s and early 90’s all over again. Except this time I’m 70 miles North of Manhattan

I am in Poughkeepsie.  Yeah, sleet is a nice snow preserver, so whatever snow we get will stay for a while 

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The main event near the coast on the 12z Euro is a low topped squall line with 60 + mph gusts.

 

 

Yeah this should be interesting. The strength & track, gradient & timing around Full Moon should at least produce a significant wind/coastal flooding event.

[PuraVida]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The main event near the coast on the 12z Euro is a low topped squall line with 60 + mph gusts.

 

 

70+ even?