East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[eduggs]

4 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Is there any rhyme or reason why the seemingly weaker low pressure tugs the more intense low pressure west on the GFS the last few runs into PA. Seems like the last GFS ensemble was hinting that it was an exaggerated scenario...?

I think there was a little more upper level divergence (i.e., sharper, more negatively tilted trof). Since upper level divergence causes low surface pressure, there was a little more of an inland (primary) surface reflection. That can give the impression of a storm being tugged west, but it really just reflects the evolution of the upper level features.

[Rjay]

Lol. Right over the bm.  

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

wow? 00z gfs ensembles take even better track than 18z

 

Meanwhile the CMC is snowing to Detroit and Toronto with heavy deform to Buffalo 

Take the GEFS trend but toss the mean.

[SnowGoose69]

This is by far the worst ensemble/Op difference on a run to run basis since January 2015 

[Franklin0529]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Lol. Right over the bm.  

I was just going to say that lol. Thats where it was a couple days ago when it showed dc to Boston blizzard.  Could it? Yes. Will it?? Only god knows 

[Rjay]

Ukie

 

 

[Franklin0529]

Just now, Rjay said:

Ukie

 

 

Looks a tick or 2 se no?

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Looks a tick or 2 se no?

Yea but meh. 

[LibertyBell]

52 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Lol. Right over the bm.  

See this is what happens when people make rash storm decisions on a storm STILL OVER THE OCEAN lol.

No one should ever talk about long range forecasting when we cant even get 5 day forecasts right.

 

[LibertyBell]

50 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This is by far the worst ensemble/Op difference on a run to run basis since January 2015 

If it keeps people from making predictions 5 days out then it's a good thing.

Forecasting should only be done 2-3 days out, anything beyond that is random noise.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Snowlover11 said:

we are all waiting for the 0z models to bring this thing east!

we wont know the track of this thing before Saturday

[RU848789]

The huge variance between Op and ensemble runs is a big red flag at this point, especially since it's certainly enhanced by sparse data on the initial conditions for the shortwave still out in the Pacific, as there are no more important deterministic, non-linear numerical model inputs than initial conditions, so until that baby is well sampled (including the weather flight data tonight and relevant data from being over land early this morning), we're flying partially blind, which is why I don't live and die with model outputs until we have those initial conditions nailed down much better, which will likely be by 12Z today  The old modeling adage of "garbage in, garbage out" may sound trite, but it's quite relevant here.  

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Yea but meh. 

I don’t believe any “east trend” in the GEFS. Every storm this year so far has trended west and north as we get within a day or 2 of it, every one, there is no reason to believe it….we don’t have a block in place to force the track off shore

[Syrmax]

6 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

The huge variance between Op and ensemble runs is a big red flag at this point, especially since it's certainly enhanced by sparse data on the initial conditions for the shortwave still out in the Pacific, as there are no more important deterministic, non-linear numerical model inputs than initial conditions, so until that baby is well sampled (including the weather flight data tonight and relevant data from being over land early this morning), we're flying partially blind, which is why I don't live and die with model outputs until we have those initial conditions nailed down much better, which will likely be by 12Z today  The old modeling adage of "garbage in, garbage out" may sound trite, but it's quite relevant here.  

Check the NE forum (yeah, I know) there is a post from Twitter about special sampling that has been done of the system in the PAC.  Was likely ingested into the 00Z runs. It's not as much of a black hole area as it usually is.  Attached part of the tweet here.

[MJO812]

Why did I stay up for the euro

Way west

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Why did I stay up for the euro

Way west

Disaster 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Disaster 

I have work in 5 hours 

[Franklin0529]

Just now, MJO812 said:

I have work in 5 hours 

Oof. Sorry to hear that. Euro ran that thing all the way to buffalo.  Idk what to think,  I'll wait till Friday to wave the white flag

[Syrmax]

0Z Euro.  0 op models supporting a run to the BM or halfway to Bermuda, despite several GFS ensembles members insisting on it, which is why the GooFuS ens mean is skewed east. Could change...

[RU848789]

14 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Check the NE forum (yeah, I know) there is a post from Twitter about special sampling that has been done of the system in the PAC.  Was likely ingested into the 00Z runs. It's not as much of a black hole area as it usually is.  Attached part of the tweet here.

That was from Monday evening - looking at something I saw elsewhere, there was a flight tonight which would not have had data going into tonight's 0Z models, which initialize at 7 pm EST.  

 

[Syrmax]

5 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

That was from Monday evening - looking at something I saw elsewhere, there was a flight tonight which would not have had data going into tonight's 0Z models, which initialize at 7 pm EST.  

 

Thanks. No idea on details but i wonder if the op model changes over the past few days have anything to do with these flight's data?  Every single op model shows same track idea over the last 2-4 0/12z cycles whereas most were OTS prior.  Frankly, I'm hoping this ends up a touch east like the rest of your forum. 0Z EC slots the hell out of CNY...

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

There also might be a possibility that a trough over the western Great Lakes and upper mid west might late in the game (late Sunday night or Monday) act as a kicker. What I mean by that is that initially the storm hooks to the left and we go over to rain, but as it gains latitude it turns back e-ne. That is IMO possibly something to watch which could happen. Could it change the rain back to snow or would it be too late? Too early to know.

WX/PT

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

The huge variance between Op and ensemble runs is a big red flag at this point, especially since it's certainly enhanced by sparse data on the initial conditions for the shortwave still out in the Pacific, as there are no more important deterministic, non-linear numerical model inputs than initial conditions, so until that baby is well sampled (including the weather flight data tonight and relevant data from being over land early this morning), we're flying partially blind, which is why I don't live and die with model outputs until we have those initial conditions nailed down much better, which will likely be by 12Z today  The old modeling adage of "garbage in, garbage out" may sound trite, but it's quite relevant here.  

GIGO basically applies to anything data related lol

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Syrmax said:

0Z Euro.  0 op models supporting a run to the BM or halfway to Bermuda, despite several GFS ensembles members insisting on it, which is why the GooFuS ens mean is skewed east. Could change...

I have a feeling many are already going to move onto the 1/21 "threat" if this keeps up for a few more runs.  That "threat" could use a NW push.

[USCG RS]

1 hour ago, Franklin0529 said:

Oof. Sorry to hear that. Euro ran that thing all the way to buffalo.  Idk what to think,  I'll wait till Friday to wave the white flag

Unfortunately, this - meteorologically - has made the most sense for a while. No banana HP. Rapidly strengthening storm over the deep south. 

This is going to push right in up through CPA and potentially through W NYS. Heck this could end up in the OH River Valley. The trough turns negative very very early, phases in a lot of energy and has nothing to force a transfer. 

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t believe any “east trend” in the GEFS. Every storm this year so far has trended west and north as we get within a day or 2 of it, every one, there is no reason to believe it….we don’t have a block in place to force the track off shore

That's def not true. Our last snow event did not keep trending west otherwise we would have had a foot. 

The snow event that slammed Atlantic City trended west initially but stopped as we got within 3 days. 

[SnoSki14]

I think the only way the outcome changes is if models are incorrect in holding back the energy around day 3 when the storm is in Arkansas.

If the storm ends up being more progressive then it'll end up further east.

The west pull into central PA is the result of a complete phase with northern stream. If this phase is delayed due to the southern vortex moving east faster then the track will most likely be offshore or a coastal hugger.

Note Euro tends to be hold back things too much so its amped up track wasn't surprising. 

The GEFS were def interesting.

[MJO812]

Gefs still looking good for the coast

[EasternLI]

[EasternLI]

Here was the 00z EPS