East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[mikem81]

12Z versus 18Z

12Z

1 minute ago, VideoBufferMX said:

GEFS says : OP "why did you displace the low to the west"

[mikem81]

Notice how it got rid of the few LP's in the Ohio Valley from 12Z to 18Z

[EasternLI]

This is a little bit better than 12z.

[binbisso]

1 minute ago, mikem81 said:

Notice how it got rid of the few LP's in the Ohio Valley from 12Z to 18Z

 Yup you now have about 1/3 of the  Members over the Atlantic compared to 12Z when there was 2

[Jt17]

Definitely looks like the GFS and the GEFS trended towards a better solution for snow. GEFS says that crazy hard phase that brought the low into PA was way exaggerated, hopefully it's onto something!

[EasternLI]

[binbisso]

2 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

This is a little bit better than 12z.

 I wonder if those weak lows well out in the Atlantic missed the phase with the northern stream.  There's about 10 members that look like it would have minimal to no impact to our area.  I think that's the piece going forward we have to look for when where and if the northern stream phases in

[Rjay]

25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

it phases and there's no blocking, the high is moving out.....so NW it goes

The gefs trying to bring the weenies back in. 

[Rjay]

The gefs are sooo much better than the 12z run for our subforum. 

[Tatamy]

18z GEFS mean

[MJO812]

[Tatamy]

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The gefs are sooo much better than the 12z run for our subforum. 

What is most interesting is how the model is struggling to resolve the UVVs that are taking place across eastern PA and NW NJ in the area of heaviest precip.  Very dynamic system.

[EasternLI]

2 minutes ago, binbisso said:

 I wonder if those weak lows well out in the Atlantic missed the phase with the northern stream.  There's about 10 members that look like it would have minimal to no impact to our area.  I think that's the piece going forward we have to look for when where and if the northern stream phases in

Hard to say without dissecting every one of them. I'm not getting into all of that lol. Could be. 

[Rjay]

I really can't comment on this run.  I need to see the whole 0z suite.  

[Roger Smith]

That 18z GFS run has very fast occlusion over central NJ which could mean a wild ride for NYC - I wonder if eventually this will turn into a very dynamic system with a deeper center than currently advertised, and still thinking it could be double centered, with features of a wintry nature that might mirror some of those late summer rainstorm features of locally intense bands oriented NW-SE near the Hudson valley. Potential for some very high snowfall totals in parts of PA and NY state, right now it seems like NYC could see a bit of everything but even so, a strong gradient of snow totals across the northern portions of the metro region. For a location like JFK, perhaps 5-8 inches snow, followed by sleet, brief rain back to sleet and then blowing snow as wrap around hits, another inch or two with that. Temps 25-28 during the initial snow, 30-33 mid-storm, spike to 42 then back down into low 30s. But I suspect this may evolve into more of a classic coastal as the GFS backtracks further. Maybe ICON had the best solution after all. Would not be surprised to see this into the 970s by event time.

[North and West]

The gefs trying to bring the weenies back in. 

.

[SnoSki14]

I wonder if models are incorrect on hanging back the shortwave around day 3. 

Because that would make a big difference down the line. 

[NEG NAO]

18Z GFS OP is off its rocker

 

[sussexcountyobs]

Everything we are commenting on will change by Saturday 0Z run. It will. Not saying it will change to a  snowier solution. But it will change. So sit back. Relax. Don't throw up the white flag, or call for a blizzard run to run. Give it 2 days. 

[romba]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

18Z GFS OP is off its rocker

 

That's 12Z snowmap.

 

18Z:

[romba]

54 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

18z GEFS mean

 

52 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Difference in maps is the resolution? Algorithm? Does the bottom one show sleet as snow? Bottom seems to have been smoothed out and shows Central Jersey for example as 10-12 and top one shows it as 4-6. Pretty big difference in map totals....

[romba]

1 minute ago, Torch said:

The high pressure over us this weekend is not heading out. It will hang over New England long enough to keep us snow.

Could be sleet too if it stays long enough but the storm still cuts/hugs

[White Gorilla]

[the_other_guy]

accu weather going for glory…just sayin

[White Gorilla]

[North and West]

Anyone else (who’s old enough) getting March 1993 vibes?

Not saying that it’s anywhere near that magnitude, but the inland track and major storm signal.


.

[sussexcountyobs]

7 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

accu weather going for glory…just sayin

Mine for NW New Jersey says the same thing. At this early point, I would pay no attention to snow accumulation forecasts like this.

[wxman]

3 minutes ago, North and West said:

Anyone else (who’s old enough) getting March 1993 vibes?

Not saying that it’s anywhere near that magnitude, but the inland track and major storm signal.

I am and this is brings to mind the fact that most of the "greats" were well-modeled several days out.  Not saying we're doomed on this one as shoving this thing east just enough to give us a big snow is well with the envelope of a well-modeled storm 5 days out.
 

 

[lee59]

The only thing I am confident of, the storm track as by the GFS and Euro give my area rain and I would say just about from start to finish. The good thing, what the track is now will more than likely change.

[White Gorilla]