East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

It was a quick reversal which is very weird for the models.

The big reversal may be related to the recon mission and dropsondes over the EPAC giving the models more information since yesterday.

https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/status/messages/

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
0300Z TUE JAN 11 2022

00Z GFS is running on time.

UPDATED 00Z RAOB RECAP...

91348/PNI - Purged temp/moisture 812-767mb...wet bulb effect.
70414/SYA - TTBB missing.
72357/OUN - 10148.
72632/DTX - 10142.
72403/LWX - No report for NAM. Available for GFS.


27 dropsondes were available for GFS ingest in support of the
Atmospheric River recon over the Eastern Pacific.



Liddick/SDM/NCO/NCEP

 

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
0305Z WED JAN 12 2022

00Z GFS is running on time.

UPDATED 00Z RAOB RECAP...

76225/CUU - Purged spurious wind data at 867mb.
91334/TKK - Purged temp/moisture 483-415mb...wet bulb effect.
70414/SYA - 10145.
72357/OUN - 10148.
72632/DTX - 10142.
78384/GCM - 10142.
72582/LKN - TTAA missing for NAM. Full report for GFS.
72202/MFL - No report for NAM. Available for GFS.

21 dropsondes were available for GFS ingest to support
Atmospheric River Recon in the East Pacific.



Liddick/SDM/NCO/NCEP

 

[dseagull]

Is it safe to assume that the models overdid the blocking pattern that we were looking at 36-48 hours ago?  The SW that we orginally had our eyes on is diving 24-30 hours later than what we anticipated.  Ocean storm must have been (still is) the wild card.

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, dseagull said:

Is it safe to assume that the models overdid the blocking pattern that we were looking at 36-48 hours ago?  The SW that we orginally had our eyes on is diving 24-30 hours later than what we anticipated.  Ocean storm must have been (still is) the wild card.

There isn’t much of a blocking pattern. There’s a pseudo -NAO upcoming but not enough to really shunt east a vigorous storm like this one. This looks like it wants to amp up fast and cut north. I don’t see much to really stop it. Also the ridge axis is a little too far west than what I’d want for an offshore tracking storm. Nothing to stop a frigid pattern from suddenly featuring a warm cutter or hugger that changes us over to rain when we lack the blocking. 

That said this is 5 days away and will change but I don’t see anything to stop it from being a lousy outcome either. 

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, Tatamy said:

This is morphing from a coastal to an inland runner to an apps runner - and it’s not done yet.  The part that remains somewhat interesting is the CAD ahead of the storm east of the spine of the appalachians.  Whether this continues and to what degree is an open question. 

This is a GREAT point. Models almost always under model CAD. So the models that show a coating to 1 inch before pure rain are likely incorrect. Even with a coastal runner we will see more snow and SLEET. Of course rain too.

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is a GREAT point. Models almost always under model CAD. So the models that show a coating to 1 inch before pure rain are likely incorrect. Even with a coastal runner we will see more snow and SLEET. Of course rain too.

with a phased storm cutting or our west we'd have strong E or ESE winds off of 45 degree oceans-that cold air won't stand a chance....

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

with a phased storm cutting or our west we'd have strong E or ESE winds off of 45 degree oceans-that cold air won't stand a chance....

I could see there being front end snow at the onset for a few hours especially inland but tracks well inland like shown will switch everyone over to rain. Near the coast whatever would fall probably gets washed away. 

[LoboLeader1]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Show me how many times a track like that has occurred…

I’ll wait….

 

storms either hug the coast or go just west of the mountains. A coastal hugger ala 3/17 is the most likely outcome at this time 

Would rather see this system go OTS as opposed to dealing with possible high wind and flooding. NWS depicts temps near 40 on Monday.

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I could see there being front end snow at the onset for a few hours especially inland but tracks well inland like shown will switch everyone over to rain. Near the coast whatever would fall probably gets washed away. 

Gets washed away, but what falls before getting washed still counts against season totals.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Gets washed away, but what falls before getting washed still counts against season totals.

Been awhile since we've had a storm that dropped accums and then got washed away-seems like we either have BM storms or cutters to Detroit

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Been awhile since we've had a storm that dropped accums and then got washed away-seems like we either have BM storms or cutters to Detroit

For some reason this storm keeps popping up in my mind while watching the EURO op track.

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/03-Mar-94.html

[wdrag]

06z GEFS of interest on 2" snowfall: it cuts w of BWI-PHL, then turns ene across LI.

What I'm seeing via the 06 GEFS is a tendency to close off the 500 short shortwave as it crosses LI Monday.  I think interest in snowfall NYC north and west should be continued til future modeling closes the door.  5 days to go. 

[EasternLI]

06z eps, bunch of inside runners. The mean isn't awful yet though. We keep monitoring. 

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

06z eps, bunch of inside runners. The mean isn't awful yet though. We keep monitoring. 

Ugly.

Hope the LR still looks great on the EPS and GEFS with no signs of breaking down!

If so then plenty more opportunities after this one.

 

[EasternLI]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Ugly.

Hope the LR still looks great on the EPS and GEFS with no signs of breaking down!

If so then plenty more opportunities after this one.

 

Long range looks the same. 

[jm1220]

If we keep the cold/+PNA pattern there will be other chances after this one. I wouldn’t get too bummed out. 

[Tatamy]

26 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

with a phased storm cutting or our west we'd have strong E or ESE winds off of 45 degree oceans-that cold air won't stand a chance....

I my original post I was referring to areas well inland away from the coast.  As modeled there is a fair amount of sleet and freezing rain associated with this storm in those places.  Strongly agree that the strong easterly or SE flow will kill chances for freezing/frozen precip near the coast.

[eduggs]

What a perfect phase on the GFS between the bowling ball trof and the follow up wave. The ridging in between wave 1 and 3 just perfectly aligns, and wave 3 amplifies just ideally to wrap up the bowling ball into its waiting arms. Beautiful! But where was this so many times when we needed it with storms exiting east off the SE coast?

[eduggs]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

We do still have 4 days to go. It is possible the confluence trends stronger again and the track shifts east again. 

We've seen substantial short term changes already. But if the 12z suite holds or keeps trending west then it's probably not gonna be a coastal.

I think the issue is the upstream wave, not the downstream trof. Right now the GFS is strengthening and deepening this trof just at the perfect moment to Fujiwara the bowling ball almost due north. I'd love to see the follow up wave significantly delayed, with a height field less conducive to phasing, or in a different location. 

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, Torch said:

To see guidance like this in mid January is a good thing.

Good for what/who ? If you would explain your theory some of us might be convinced !

[eduggs]

36 minutes ago, wdrag said:

06z GEFS of interest on 2" snowfall: it cuts w of BWI-PHL, then turns ene across LI.

What I'm seeing via the 06 GEFS is a tendency to close off the 500 short shortwave as it crosses LI Monday.  I think interest in snowfall NYC north and west should be continued til future modeling closes the door.  5 days to go. 

I think the evolution of this storm may be highlighting a weakness of the ensembles. If several runs in a row an operational model is a far western outlier with respect to its members and then it continues to shift further west away from them, how useful are they at that stage? We've seen this clearly with the GFS/GEFS and to a similar but lesser extent with EPS and GEPS.

Until the multi-run shift is halted and some kind of continuity is established, I think it could be misleading to look at the ensemble mean.

[NEG NAO]

Here is my analog for this upcoming weekend storm

Snow and ice storm, March 2-3, 1994 - Storm Summary (raymondcmartinjr.com)

[SnoSki14]

51 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If we keep the cold/+PNA pattern there will be other chances after this one. I wouldn’t get too bummed out. 

Pattern gets better later next week actually so I def think we'll score eventually.

[EastonSN+]

37 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Here is my analog for this upcoming weekend storm

Snow and ice storm, March 2-3, 1994 - Storm Summary (raymondcmartinjr.com)

Ha I provided same exact one!

[NEG NAO]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Ha I provided same exact one!

I didn't see you post it here before I did - I swear !

[HVSnowLover]

I think people might be overrreacting to GFS. Euro coastal hugger solution may be more realistic until I see it trend to the gfs. I think the NW parts of the subforum still have a shot at a significant snowfall.   

[MJO812]

At this point I will be happy with front end snow.

[North and West]

Here is my analog for this upcoming weekend storm
Snow and ice storm, March 2-3, 1994 - Storm Summary (raymondcmartinjr.com)

That was a nice storm in Morris County… nice finish to that winter.


.

[mikem81]

Hopefully this is the most west weve seen the models swing. I mean they went from OTS to inland runner in 1 day so clearly the uncertainty here is huge.

[MJO812]

Nam has single  digit temps for the coast Saturday Morning with below 0 temps for the far interior. 

[romba]

I've become a pro at spotting cognitive dissonance attempts to wishcast snow. You do never know, but sometimes you gotta read the tea leaves  

 

Snow Enthusiasts Defense Mechanism 101- A Course For Proper Weenie-ing, for the pros, by the pros.

When models briefly show blizzard but switch to consistently show rain (or OTS), how do you properly cope to postpone the disappointment? We have your answers right here!

 

-Look to the Operational if that shows snow but look to the ensembles if that shows snow. If neither shows snow anymore, please proceed to next step.

-We need to wait for the first storm to pass before models will get a real handle on our storm.

-That one model still shows a good hit.

-Storms have trended X way at Y time, as they get closer (Where X=direction for more snow and Y=time period when X trended favorably)

-Wait for better sampling.

Warning: Please implement the following only in backside of winters with minimal snowfall: Models clearly are having convective issues

 

 

 

In any case, the period following this storm seems pretty favorable, maybe we can get a nice storm out of it- that's the truth not a defense mechanism, I think lol