East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is even more west

Unfortunately there isn't any confluence to stop this from trending west. 

Given current trends I think it very well might be correct. 

[Snowlover11]

meh, i guess we better get the arks.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Unfortunately there isn't any confluence to stop this from trending west. 

Given current trends I think it very well might be correct. 

Quite possible 

Remember when people thought this was going to be squashed ?

[SnoSki14]

11 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

meh, i guess we better get the arks.

The GFS track would create serious coastal flooding and strong winds. Timing around Full Moon. 

If it is gonna cut then I hope it keeps trending west. The storm could be a wave breaking event that flips the NAO/AO negative and makes future systems more favorable for us. 

[Tatamy]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is even more west

Brings rain almost to Pittsburgh… lol

[MJO812]

Gefs more amped

I thought the pattern would be conducive for a nice coastal storm.  I guess wrong. 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs more amped

I thought the pattern would be conducive for a nice coastal storm.  I guess wrong. 

 

Its track and evolution from GA up the coast makes more sense than the Op...you probably won't have a primary low hanging on that long in the TN Valley 

[EasternLI]

00z EPS too close for comfort now. 

 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, EasternLI said:

00z EPS too close for comfort now. 

 

These aren't bad if they stay out in the Atlantic 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Its track and evolution from GA up the coast makes more sense than the Op...you probably won't have a primary low hanging on that long in the TN Valley 

Remember when people thought suppression was the concern ?

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs more amped

I thought the pattern would be conducive for a nice coastal storm.  I guess wrong. 

I thought it could work out though the high to the northeast of the storm moving out was a red flag.

Now I'm concerned we might be dealing with a powerful south'easter. 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Remember when people thought suppression was the concern ?

Its possible this thing is still going to dig more over the WRN Gulf.  If you ask me the pattern is conducive at 500 for that.  If it digs more there however then the evolution is slower and its still probably going to come up the coast along or just inland

[Tatamy]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs more amped

I thought the pattern would be conducive for a nice coastal storm.  I guess wrong. 

This is morphing from a coastal to an inland runner to an apps runner - and it’s not done yet.  The part that remains somewhat interesting is the CAD ahead of the storm east of the spine of the appalachians.  Whether this continues and to what degree is an open question. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I thought it could work out though the high to the northeast of the storm moving out was a red flag.

Now I'm concerned we might be dealing with a powerful south'easter. 

The Ocean storm is hurting us both ways

[EasternLI]

Just now, MJO812 said:

These aren't bad if they stay out in the Atlantic 

Just have to see how it goes through the coming days. That's a little too close for comfort now though IMO. 

[MJO812]

Gefs clearly west of 0z

[Tatamy]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs clearly west of 0z

Ensemble mean now has the axis of heaviest snows up through the central appalachians.  OP is really leading the way on this one.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Tatamy said:

Ensemble mean now has the axis of heaviest snows up through the central appalachians.  OP is really leading the way on this one.

We need the members offshore to be right 

[SnoSki14]

We do still have 4 days to go. It is possible the confluence trends stronger again and the track shifts east again. 

We've seen substantial short term changes already. But if the 12z suite holds or keeps trending west then it's probably not gonna be a coastal.

[dseagull]

The ocean storm and lack of confluence are the primary drivers of this scenario, correct? 

Could a faster and deeper SW bring this storm further off the coast?  I'm trying to digest and learn exactly how we went from squashed storm suppression to inland runner over 12 hours yesterday.  This wasnt a sampling issue. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, dseagull said:

The ocean storm and lack of confluence are the primary drivers of this scenario, correct? 

Could a faster and deeper SW bring this storm further off the coast?  I'm trying to digest and learn exactly how we went from squashed storm suppression to inland runner over 12 hours yesterday.  This wasnt a sampling issue. 

It was a quick reversal which is very weird for the models.

[MJO812]

This is not what you want to see 

[the_other_guy]

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is not what you want to see 

Its the GFS

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, jfklganyc said:

Its the GFS

Other models are also trending west . 

[the_other_guy]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Other models are also trending west . 

I know…just adding levity

[Yanksfan]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Other models are also trending west . 

UKIE went east and the EURO OP ticked east. Let’s wait till the ocean storm gets out of the way first before throwing in any towels.

[Shades]

FWIW There's a difference between model watching/prognosticating and tracking a storm. There is no storm atm. We are tracking models and it's important to establish that before making any calls involving absolutes. Just a word to the wise, and I do consider ya'll wise. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

51 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is not what you want to see 

Show me how many times a track like that has occurred…

I’ll wait….

 

storms either hug the coast or go just west of the mountains. A coastal hugger ala 3/17 is the most likely outcome at this time 

[MJO812]

0z eps still has a big spread from inland to offshore

 

[CIK62]

Wind Gusts according to the EURO during worst of it:   Passes by quickly.