East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[wdrag]

454AM Wednesday Jan 12: title and tags adjusted to drop Saturday, focus late Sunday-Monday morning for what appears to be an 18 hour storm of snow-rain-snow. Heaviest snow tends to be modeled west of the I-95 corridor but ensembles still warrant continued concern for the axis of heavy snow including I95. At this point far too uncertain but where it snows for 12 hours, widespread 6+" seems likely. Also a 6 hour period of potential 50 kt inflow gusts is possible for the coasts Sunday morning and if it occurs with the dawn Monday high tide, would result in coastal flooding, magnitude unknown. This does not appear to be a long duration storm (24 hours+) but it should be intense for a few hours Sunday night or Monday morning. Again track uncertain, and sensitive to the intensity of the surface low. There still is opportunity that this will track too close to our area for much snow but there are several days to adjust the track and resultant precipitation type. It does appear there will be a general inch to 1.5 inches of qpf with this system, maybe thunder too. A big storm with large scale impacts entire east coast-Appalachians. The only reason I didn't highly stronger wording for impact, is that this will occur later Sunday and the following Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday. 

---

At this 6-7 day lead time 8PM Sunday Jan 9 issuance, options are fairly wide open.  For now, a light or moderate event 'seems' likely but absolutely not a lock, nor is a heavy event excluded. This event still could be demolished to zero by what happens off New England on the 14th, or what follows between the 19th-22nd.  However there already has been discussion the past several days for the coming weekend. 

Ending 12z/9 the past 6 cycles of the ECMWF op, the last 4 cycles of the CMC GGEM [LI 3 cycles, I84-4 cycles] have some sort of snow event, especially I84.  Maybe the GFS via it's 18z/9 cycle is shifting snow emphasis on the 16th for our area instead of bombing off the coast on the 14th?

Having reviewed ensembles: 12z/9 EPS/GEFS/NAEFS all have some sort of frozen event is coming to the northeast USA,  along and north of I80 including LI. 

Have added the broad coverage low chance WPC D7 issued at 17z/9,   the EPS 24 hour qpf ending 12z/17 and the 12z/EC 850 MB low (GEFS so far has nothing, still favoring the 14th but not as far south and west as previous).  NAEFS products for 00z/17 are added including previous 24 hr qpf, 00z sfc temp in C, and the sfc pattern. 

There will be quite a few model changes-conflicts and this could end up having been a wasted effort... but it seems worthy of further scrutiny as our next possible significant snow or ice event for at least a portion of the NYC subforum. 

[EasternLI]

00z EPS looks a little bit better than yesterday for this IMO. With some better spacing from the ocean storm and a lean west of the members from the mean. 

[wdrag]

Late 13 -14 still a concern: GEFS in particular likes this bombing storm for a LI/SNE grazer.  Did not start a thread for this due to most modeling and WPC missing east but this probable big ocean storm is a concern by not allowing enough separation between systems for the necessary ridging in the northeast ahead of the next Great Lakes diving short wave - ie depressed weaker further south on the 16th.

The good news for an event are ensembles (GEFS, and especially the EPS) are in favor of a weekend centered snow event and the new overnight WPC D6-7 graphics are added - use time period and the low probs legend to continue D6-7 perspective on 3" chance. The EPS in particular is developing a nice 850 Low just to our south,  Will check back on the modeling this Monday evening.  

[NEG NAO]

12Z Canadian is a miss - I liked the 12Z GFS delays any storm along coast till next Tuesday

[NEG NAO]

Only thing Canadian gives us is a rain storm next week

[MJO812]

Some gefs members are further  north than the op

[NEG NAO]

12Z Euro Similar To GFS through weekend at least

[NEG NAO]

We are in the Screw Zone !

[MJO812]

Eps has alot of members way further north than the op for this weekend 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

We are in the Screw Zone !

Onto the ensembles 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

42 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

We are in the Screw Zone !

Tomorrow another map, a different scroo zone. Hopefully anyway. 

[IrishRob17]

2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Tomorrow another map, a different scroo zone. Hopefully anyway. 

These maps shouldn't be posted.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said:

These maps shouldn't be posted.

why ?

[USCG RS]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

why ?

Because they honestly have no scientific value to them in general. However, this far out is pure fantasy 

[EasternLI]

No clarity here yet. Probably more convoluted today. Ocean storm looks like a solid miss on this run though before this. Going to have to wait it out a little bit more. Hopefully more clarity tomorrow. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, USCG RS said:

Because they honestly have no scientific value to them in general. However, this far out is pure fantasy 

They are definitely going to change by 0z

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

They are definitely going to change by 0z

IMO only the Canadian will change and trend towards the GFS and Euro.........

[Volcanic Winter]

People here I would think are aware of the highly speculative to straight tea leaf nature of model maps this far out. Doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be posted and discussed IMO. 
 

That’s what people discuss here anyway, the current trends from the latest model runs. The maps are just a visualization of that. 
 

Granted people have to remember not to put too much faith into them, but I would think users here know that. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

IMO only the Canadian will change and trend towards the GFS and Euro.........

We don't know that yet

[Stormlover74]

29 minutes ago, Torch said:

Hard to believe it will stay dry now thru Sunday.

Maybe the end of the month

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, Torch said:

Hard to believe it will stay dry now thru Sunday.

Not that hard to believe, cold and dry is rather common here,

We'll get a nice storm when the cold air is about to go away

 

[hazwoper]

Oh boy…0Z GFs……

[Allsnow]

Gfs huge hit for Monday 

[NEG NAO]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Gfs huge hit for Monday 

[Jt17]

GFS showing a powerful coastal bomb for 1/17...

[SnoSki14]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

That's a nice Miller A. 

The shortwave that eventually dives out of western Canada hangs back longer allowing for greater separation between it and the ocean storm. 

[eduggs]

The 0z GFS would work. Powerful and severely tilted s/w trof fighting low upstream heights and a kicker on its heels and it still pulls it off. But barely 

I hope we move towards this kind of full east coast system in the coming days. But man, that trof better be impressive.

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's a nice Miller A. 

The shortwave that eventually dives out of western Canada hangs back longer allowing for greater separation between it and the ocean storm. 

I doubt this is the final or correct solution unfortunately..

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's a nice Miller A. 

The shortwave that eventually dives out of western Canada hangs back longer allowing for greater separation between it and the ocean storm. 

Fwiw, the Jan. 7 system was essentially a Miller A as well. Of course the Miller classification system is clearly oversimplified. 

[SnoSki14]

9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I doubt this is the final or correct solution unfortunately..

Well there's still room for improvement but the threat is real.