BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 On 1/10/2022 at 8:48 PM, wolfie09 said: Meanwhile Expand We know with RGEM you have to cut QPF by around 70%. At least it hits locations good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 On 1/10/2022 at 8:59 PM, BuffaloWeather said: If I lived off Ontario I would have to pick a spot that got hit with bands like that. I couldn't do the NW transient flow bands. Expand Our bands are the worst. Of the 20 winters I’ve lived on the south shore we’ve had like 2 good years for lake effect. Pure lake effect that is. Which is why I live and die on that synoptic hill. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 On 1/10/2022 at 9:01 PM, winter_rules said: I did that, and then moved away to be closer to family. I don’t regret that today. Nope, not at all. Expand I mean if I lived in Syracuse I would be in the middle of that thing right now after work. How far of a drive is it like 20-30 minutes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Dave move to Youngstown so you can complain about lake snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 On 1/10/2022 at 8:56 PM, Revracer800 said: Somewhere up there is gonna end up with 3-4' of white gold. Carol Yerdon has gotta be getting hammered. Textbook perfect band right now. Expand Carol only has 11” as of 15 minutes ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 On 1/10/2022 at 9:02 PM, BuffaloWeather said: We know with RGEM you have to cut QPF by around 70%. At least it hits locations good. Expand Yeah it looks like that but as the we get closer some of that precipitation has already fallen.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 On 1/10/2022 at 9:01 PM, vortmax said: Tonight Snow before 2am, then snow showers likely after 2am. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of blowing snow before 2am. Low around 5. Wind chill values as low as -10. Blustery, with a northwest wind 18 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Expand Not sure i buy it. Could definitely see 2 to 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 BGM's got my back...matches closely... lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just north of me now, can see clearing to the south, light snow overhead.. Band should be back in business around 6-7pm for the finale.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 On 1/10/2022 at 9:01 PM, vortmax said: Tonight Snow before 2am, then snow showers likely after 2am. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of blowing snow before 2am. Low around 5. Wind chill values as low as -10. Blustery, with a northwest wind 18 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Expand I have no idea what they are looking at for those accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 On 1/10/2022 at 9:08 PM, wolfie09 said: Just north of me now, can see clearing to the south, light snow overhead.. Band should be back in business around 6-7pm for the finale.. Expand And don't be surprised if the heaviest snow will be on the northern edge of the band when it does move through you. A lot of times the vertical circulation structure as it's getting shoved by a front, will tilt it such a way that the heaviest snow will fall in the northern part of the band. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 On 1/10/2022 at 8:59 PM, BuffaloWeather said: If I lived off Ontario I would have to pick a spot that got hit with bands like that. I couldn't do the NW transient flow bands. I'd rather get 1-2 big boy events than 10-12 small events. Expand I would have headed up today but been in work conferences all day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 On 1/10/2022 at 9:04 PM, lakeeffectkid383 said: Carol only has 11” as of 15 minutes ago. Expand FFS I want to hurl. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 Rgem next 6 hrs.. Between 4-7 pm little JP just north of me, 1/2" liquid.. Takes it's time moving south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 On 1/10/2022 at 9:08 PM, rochesterdave said: I have no idea what they are looking at for those accumulations. Expand Only thing I can think of is they are counting on what wrfs are showing. Alot of models won't pick up on the snow cause its so shallow in atmosphere after front goes thru. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 On 1/10/2022 at 8:26 PM, CNY_WX said: After looking at models I think the band will be in our area around 8 PM. At the rate it will be moving south I don’t expect it to be over us more than an hour. Plus once it falls off the lake it will fall apart quickly. I don’t see us getting the 6 inches you’re forecasting. I’m thinking 1-2 inches max. Expand Don't these southward moves typically take longer than models predict with these strong single bands? I def recall that they tend to "hang up" and tilt SW-NE with the more inland portion of the band adding to the lag time. Pretty sure Lake Effect King mentioned this earlier in the thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 On 1/10/2022 at 9:04 PM, lakeeffectkid383 said: Carol only has 11” as of 15 minutes ago. Expand Yeah south redfield has been target all day. I zoomed in and looks like she has teeth. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 On 1/10/2022 at 9:25 PM, tim123 said: Only thing I can think of is they are counting on what wrfs are showing. Alot of models won't pick up on the snow cause its so shallow in atmosphere after front goes thru. Expand They may be also using analog data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 On 1/10/2022 at 9:29 PM, tim123 said: Expand I guess this has to be it. We can hope and pray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 On 1/10/2022 at 9:38 PM, rochesterdave said: I guess this has to be it. We can hope and pray. Expand Things are still lit up on the other lakes post front. Lakes are extra warm as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 Looks like it might of hit it's northern extent.. Snow starting to pick up some once again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 snow ridge is getting it good now https://snowridge.com/live-feed/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 On 1/10/2022 at 9:39 PM, vortmax said: Things are still lit up on the other lakes post front. Lakes are extra warm as well. Expand Last I saw lake ontario was 43 in middle of lake. In January thats warm. With this type of airmass dry air may not matter as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 44 plus sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Osceala has been getting hit hard all day. I believe that stick on bottom left side is 5-6'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Looks like a few feet in redfield on this cam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 good website to bookmark, they organized the cams https://www.northernchateau.com/w/webcam17.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 On 1/10/2022 at 9:51 PM, BuffaloWeather said: Looks like a few feet in redfield on this cam Expand Few feet or a few teeth? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Looking forward to a few inches later on in Cicero. 2-3 hours of heavy snow and an accumulation of 2-4, or 3-5 will make me happy Learning the unique meteorology here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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