CNY_WX Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 The center of the band appears to be right along the route 104 corridor in Mexico. I might have gotten a couple of inches overnight but right now I’m right on the edge watching a flake fly by every now and then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 We got a light accumulation overnight night, not sure how much at the moment, maybe a couple inches..The heart of the band is just to the south at the moment.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just back from Hancock Field. Rt 481 and I-81 just wet. Same with Rt 31 in Clay now. My road was untouched when I left but plowed since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Rgem wins again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 19 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Look at the intensity of the band just north of you around Perth. It’s only about 3-4 miles wide but is probably producing 1-2 inches per hour. I assume you’re south of that. Just like me it’s very frustrating to be a spectator in a front row seat. That band makes it all the way to NE CT. Pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 5 hours ago, Blue Moon said: We're rocking right now in Oswego! Btw, question for y'all: although the temp profile is below freezing from the CL to surface where I am, I have received all graupel so far. Is this because the wind is blowing graupel onshore from the lake nearby? I'm just a half mile from the lake, so it makes some sense to me if the sfc. temp above the lake is above freezing and graupel is what's falling there. Thanks! I think the convective nature of lake effect causes a lot of vertical mixing within the cloud as strong updrafts cycle snow that is currently falling back up into the portion of the cloud where water is condensing and snow is forming. The combination of these strong updrafts smashing snowflakes together along with a lot of Latent heat release eventually forms the graupel pellets. That’s just my guess at least. I always see graupel in the really heavy bands though, including last week in Buffalo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 Pulaski south exit vs pulaski north exit.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Pulaski south exit vs pulaski north exit.. I’m not sure exactly where you are in relation to Pulaski but I think you’ll be in the middle of it soon. The band is still moving north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 From KBUF AFD re: tonight...interesting shoreline mention for the ROC people... Locally enhanced low level convergence near Irondequoit Bay and Mexico Bay (driven by concave lake shorelines) may produce locally better snowfall rates, including the eastern suburbs of Rochester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Interesting view from my Ring camera this morning. It faces almost due east so north is to the left and south to the right. As the sun rises you can see the heavy cloud cover from the lake band to the north while the skies brighten to the south. I am close to the southern edge of the band. IMG_1168.MP4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 3.2" overnight in Westmoreland. Snow stopped as of 7:15am 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 ..A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT PARTS OF JEFFERSON...OSWEGO... LEWIS...AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES... HAZARDS...A band of heavy snow which can rapidly reduce visibility to less than a quarter of a mile. This band of heavy snow is producing extremely heavy snow at the rate of 2 to 3 inches per hour. LOCATION AND MOVEMENT...a band of heavy snow was located north of Central Square and oriented west to east across the northern portion of Oswego county. This band of heavy snow will slowly drift a bit further north across Oswego county this morning. Expected snow covered roadways and difficult driving conditions, especially if traveling on I-81 from Parish to Mannsville. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... Oswego, Fulton, Sandy Island Beach State Park, Fair Haven Beach State Park, Pulaski, Central Square, Redfield, Selkirk Shores State Park, Highmarket, Mexico Point State Park, Nine Mile Point, Battle Island State Park, Hastings, Scriba, Volney, Richland, Constantia, West Monroe, Palermo and New Haven. This includes Interstate 81 between exits 32 and 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 May you get dumped on today, Wolfie, Blue Moon, and tombo. Enjoy! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 If I get into that band it will be by the hair of my chinny chin chin. Going to be close. Rgem and hrdps most aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 I just talked with my sister up in Parish. She said they have a foot on the ground and still white out conditions. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 Yeah I'm thinking the rgem was to far north with the strong banding, obviously still early..I noticed the WPC has the highest probabilities of 12+ north of me now which is doubtful imo..By the time it gets there (if it does)it will be headed right back south lol Imby it has been more of a hit and miss so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah I'm thinking the rgem was to far north with the strong banding, obviously still early..I noticed the WPC has the highest probabilities of 12+ north of me now which is doubtful imo..By the time it gets there (if it does)it will be headed right back south lol Imby it has been more of a hit and miss so far.. I think this gets up your way around noon unknown. And I think the rates will only continue to increase as the frontal system approaches. You may get 12 to 16" of snow in short order!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 The band looks way more cellular than I was expecting. Certainly doesn’t seem like any insane rates going on in there. Anyone have a reason for this? Maybe winds too strong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 I see Ava is in it. Every time I drive through there in winter they have mountains of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah I'm thinking the rgem was to far north with the strong banding, obviously still early..I noticed the WPC has the highest probabilities of 12+ north of me now which is doubtful imo..By the time it gets there (if it does)it will be headed right back south lol Imby it has been more of a hit and miss so far.. Would think it lifts north a bit. Incoming arctic front diving down with trough should back flow a bit more wsw briefly before going south again as torugh gets close then goes over head 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: I see Ava is in it. Every time I drive through there in winter they have mountains of snow. 1500-1700' of elev certainly helps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 @TugHillMatt may get some goods as the flow turns northerly after the trough passes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, tombo82685 said: 1500-1700' of elev certainly helps That SE corner of the Tug is pretty wild. Toofless 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 21 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: The band looks way more cellular than I was expecting. Certainly doesn’t seem like any insane rates going on in there. Anyone have a reason for this? Maybe winds too strong? I was thinking the same honestly but didn’t want to say anything since I’m relatively new to the lake effect game. Was expecting a more consolidated band. This one looks like it are rice krispy treats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 My Brother in law is cashing in out in S Wales. Solid 6" so far. Incredibly tiny band off of Erie with an upstream feeder. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 21 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: @TugHillMatt may get some goods as the flow turns northerly after the trough passes Yeah, I am thinking it will be a crazy evening commute in these parts. Looks like we had about 2 inches overnight. I can't believe how much snow we lost in less than a day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 Lake induced equilibrium levels will rise to over 10K feet today as the core of coldest air aloft moves in. Synoptic scale moisture will steadily deepen, especially this afternoon and early evening with the approach of a strong shortwave. The boundary layer beneath the inversion will feature a deep favorable thermodynamic environment for large dendrites, with snow:water ratios of better than 20:1 in the band. Expect snowfall rates of 3 inches per hour within this band, especially this afternoon into this evening when there will be convergence and the greatest convective cloud depth. While this will be a very cold airmass...the deep convective depth inferred by the cap rising to 10-15kft will offer an excellent environment for charge separation. In other words...the intense band will likely become electrified. Research has shown that while a more shallow mixed phase layer (low -10c level) works against sufficient graupel production to induce a charge...there is also evidence that strong winds within a very cold airmass will lead to ice splintering/fracturing that aids in charge production. This is not contrary to electrification with moisture and silica in eruptions. The greatest chance for lightning within the band will come Monday and Monday into Monday evening when convergence will be strongest and the convective cloud depth will be the greatest. Keep in mind that such lightning is TYPICALLY within 20-25 miles of the source of instability...so it is not expected for the lightning to get as far inland as the Black River valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 With the frontal passage and NW flow tonight I think Rochester sees just about 1-2”. No need for flags. Boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Yeah, I am thinking it will be a crazy evening commute in these parts. Looks like we had about 2 inches overnight. I can't believe how much snow we lost in less than a day. Good thing is though, the rain last night added some meat to it, so that will help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2" or so last night up until now, solely from that Gregorian Bay connection band. Board cleared, hoping rgem and hrdps is right, but not sure it gets as far north as me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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