wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Their snowfall map has north of thruway in 6-8" or 8-12" right along border where we are. I still like 6" as the over/under for us, net. They actually have a 12"-18" strip for extreme northern onondaga county lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Their snowfall map has north of thruway in 6-8" or 8-12" right along border where we are. I still like 6" as the over/under for us, net. I'm still going with my call from yesterday of 6 to 12 inches by Tuesday. I am thinking Bville will get another 8 to 10 inch event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 Looks like someone feels like an ass lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: They actually have a 12"-18" strip for extreme northern onondaga county lol That isn’t how their WWA reads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Looks like someone feels like an ass lol Who’s that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Who’s that? Probably me. I had a smart-alek comment to something he posted and then realized my mistake on interpreting so deleted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 6 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: That isn’t how their WWA reads. Yeah that was this morning, maybe the afternoon update will look different.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 At least we have an 88% chance of getting the grass covered. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 I've noticed BGM often has lower totals in their advisories/warnings than on their maps. People tend to read those quick advisories/warnings when they pop up on their phone. Seems like a "middle ground" option where they can bump up if needed or they're just a "little off" if it doesn't materialize. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 This setup looks about as good as you could hope. Extreme instability from deep Arctic air, upstream seeding from two separate bands on slightly different trajectories, that converge right at the south east end of a lake that has surface temps in the low 40s, and an approaching shortwave with increasing synoptic moisture. I mean come on. If you chase this one you better know what you’re doing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 So close, yet so far. P.S. If you guys want to entertain yourselves for a moment, check out the "Hilarious" thread on the Philly subforum. This guy is ridiculous...so disrespectful to a professional met...giving him a piece of my mind. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Amazing sounding. Now picture where the lake temp is, around 5c. That’s a shit ton of CAPE to work with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: So close, yet so far. P.S. If you guys want to entertain yourselves for a moment, check out the "Hilarious" thread on the Philly subforum. This guy is ridiculous...so disrespectful to a professional met...giving him a piece of my mind. lol How much for Philly! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 NWS not backing down as of now.. Lake Ontario... Lake induced equilibrium levels will quickly rise to around 8K feet this evening, then steadily rise to over 10K feet on Monday as the core of coldest air aloft approaches. Synoptic scale moisture will steadily deepen, especially Monday afternoon and early evening with the approach of a strong shortwave. The boundary layer beneath the inversion will feature a deep favorable thermodynamic environment for large dendrites, with snow:water ratios of better than 20:1 in the band. The depth of instability and thermal profiles suggests some thunder/lighting is possible Monday and early Monday evening. Expect a few bands of lake effect snow to develop ESE of the lake this evening across Wayne, Cayuga, and southern Oswego counties. This initial development will be more lake enhanced snow as trough induced snow showers interact with the lake. This may produce a few inches of accumulation this evening ESE of Lake Ontario. Later tonight expect a band of heavy lake effect snow to consolidate and intensify across southern Oswego County. This lake effect band will then drift north late tonight and Monday morning as boundary layer flow backs a little closer to 270 degrees. We then expect the lake effect snow to remain in place from northern Oswego to far southern Lewis counties through most of the day Monday. The forecast is strongly based on the Canadian GEM band position for Monday, with the high-res WRF and 3km NAM runs likely showing their systematic bias of being too far south with dominant single bands. The band on Monday will be intense, especially in the afternoon when snowfall rates will likely exceed 3"/hr. Early Monday evening an arctic front will cross Lake Ontario and capture the east-west oriented lake band, shoving it south and onshore along the entire south shore of the lake. This will produce a quick burst of heavy snow along the entire south shore, including the Rochester area down to about the NY Thruway. Following this burst, NW/NNW flow will force multiple bands to develop along the entire south shore of the lake overnight. The airmass becomes cold enough to force the dentritic growth zone down to near the ground, which may cut back some on snow:water ratio. Locally enhanced low level convergence near Irondequoit Bay and Mexico Bay (driven by concave lake shorelines) may produce locally better snowfall rates, including the eastern suburbs of Rochester. As far as accumulations go, we still expect a bullseye of 2+ feet focusing on northern Oswego County and the southwest corner of Lewis County, with 8-14 inches across much of the remainder of Oswego County. There will be a very sharp northern edge to the band, so there remains some uncertainty on if it will move into far southern Jefferson County. We will maintain an advisory there for now and monitor the movement of the band as the event unfolds. Farther west, expect 4-7" along the south shore of the lake in Cayuga, Wayne, and Monroe counties Monday night through Tuesday morning, and 3-5 inches in Niagara/Orleans counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Just realized the metro Buffalo area has a lake RAIN band over it…that’s just cruel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Just realized the metro Buffalo area has a lake RAIN band over it…that’s just cruel Haha. Nah, that’s just the front, but it probably scooped a little moisture. Temps should be dropping real soon for you. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Just realized the metro Buffalo area has a lake RAIN band over it…that’s just cruel Not lake effect rain, that’s the front moving through. Still rain none the less but not lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 I’d be chasing this event if it wasn’t occurring during the workday. I’d drive 2 hours for 4” rates 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 The whole south shore of Lake Ontario now has an Advisory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 In the meantime, BGM DROPPED our totals to a max of 5 inches through the entire event. lol Not sure I agree with that. It says til "1 am Tuesday" so maybe they're "sort of" just issuing it for the first round? But Round 2 would be tomorrow evening. Sort of confusing. Onondaga-Madison- Including the cities of Syracuse, Hamilton, and Oneida 305 PM EST Sun Jan 9 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, lake effect snow expected beginning tonight. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 5 inches, highest along and north of the Thruway. For the Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 20 below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 21 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Not lake effect rain, that’s the front moving through. Still rain none the less but not lake effect. Damage done anyways. Lost most of our snowpack save for the plowing sand piles…and now the euro lost thaw weekend storm…2 weeks of dry would suck fiercely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: I think that just corresponds to the WWA for the first round Yep... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: I think that just corresponds to the WWA for the first round 3 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Yep... Hmmm, the timeline of the advisory would not imply that though? The second round comes tomorrow evening before this advisory expires. For example BUF included both rounds in their advisory. It's just a bit more clear. Oh, well. It's a logistical thing. NYZ005-100400- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220111T0600Z/ Northern Cayuga- Including the city of Fair Haven 252 PM EST Sun Jan 9 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow tonight, and again Monday night. Snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches tonight in the most persistent lake snows. Additional accumulation of 3 to 5 inches Monday night. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Both evening NAM runs have come south as well. On almost all the runs, southern Oswego county scores the jackpot. If Rgem doesn't budge and ends up right, it will be another great win for that model. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 12 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: You already know I want to watch a fire burn. Can you link the thread? Whoa! You really "threw off the gloves" in that Philly thread! lol... Delta too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 @TugHillMatt Matt, Can you tell me please when and why one would look at Kuchera numbers? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: So close, yet so far. P.S. If you guys want to entertain yourselves for a moment, check out the "Hilarious" thread on the Philly subforum. This guy is ridiculous...so disrespectful to a professional met...giving him a piece of my mind. lol That guy is a real a**. I guess they don’t teach professional conduct at that grad school he’s attending. If he keeps this up the only place he’ll be able to get a forecasting job is Siberia. Also, he probably wasn’t even alive in 1996 so where does he get the right to criticize a meteorologist probably in the middle of his career at the time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Just now, sferic said: @TugHillMatt Matt, Can you tell me please when and why one would look at Kuchera numbers? Kuchera is often used to determine snowfall ratios. It gives us a general idea of ratios based on different atmospheric conditions/temperatures in which the models are determining. Often times, it's an 18:1 or 20:1 ratio. During synoptic storms, the guys on here are much more prone to use 10:1, as dendritic growth, temperatures, moisture, etc... all affect amounts. Also, if it's a wet snow...OR a very dry snow (pixie dust), ratios can be lower. We also use Kuchera when we are in weenie moods and want to get excited about future GFS calls of 249 inches over a 384 hour period. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: That guy is a real a**. I guess they don’t teach professional conduct at that grad school he’s attending. If he keeps this up the only place he’ll be able to get a forecasting job is Siberia. Also, he probably wasn’t even alive in 1996 so where does he get the right to criticize a meteorologist probably in the middle of his career at the time. For real. He needs to be banned. He's a detriment to the Philly forum and I feel bad they have to deal with him. He didn't deserve the time and energy Mike Gorse put into talking with him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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