wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 Even though the 3k continues to remain south, it does have a max around 40" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 High Rez Canadian continues to bump north, closer to the rgem..Sharp cutoff just to the north though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 Kbgm issuing some headlines.. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of less than one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze up to one tenth of an inch. Lake Effect snow begins tonight lasting through Monday with additional snow accumulation of 1 to 8 inches. The highest amounts are expected north of the Thruway. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph. * WHERE... Onondaga county. * WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions due to the wintry mix today. Where Lake Effect snow occurs, roads will become slick and snow covered in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...For the Lake Effect Snow Warning, heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 24 inches in northern Oneida county and 6 to 16 inches in Southern Oneida county. For the Winter Weather Advisory, mixed precipitation expected. Very light snow and sleet accumulation of an inch or two in spots, ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Northern Oneida and Southern Oneida counties. * WHEN...For the Lake Effect Snow Warning, from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Tuesday. For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 4 PM EST this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible tonight and Monday. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning and evening commutes Monday. A few slick spots from freezing rain today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: High Rez Canadian continues to bump north, closer to the rgem..Sharp cutoff just to the north though.. For awhile, tomorrow through the time of the Arctic fropa, we should see occasional rates of 5-7" per hour, and from my experience, as that front passes and is oriented with the band and merges, there could be a very brief period of mind blowing rates...seen it twice in my life when living in Parish. I took about an 80/20 ratio (Rgem/3k Nam) when making my call. I believe the difference between the 2 models is that the nam keeps the band as a lakeshore band, where as the regional Canadian brings the band closer to the major axis of the lake. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 16 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: High Rez Canadian continues to bump north, closer to the rgem..Sharp cutoff just to the north though.. Yeah insane 2-3” QPF with 20:1 or higher ratios. You do the math. That’s insanity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 18 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Yeah insane 2-3” QPF with 20:1 or higher ratios. You do the math. That’s insanity. Also have to remember, thats a 48hr map, cut about .5-.75 qpf off for right now according to the hrdps. It does flip over to snow later this morning in that area per hrdps. But I dunno, these warm layers are sneaky 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 Wpc added in a chance for T-Storms.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 D1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 D2.. At this point it's rgem or bust lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 3 feet seems a good bet in Oswego county. In rochester hoping for 4 to 6 mostly in a 3 hour period when front comes thru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Wow, looking at the probalistice forecase for N Onondaga, wow; 14",? I'll gladly take it Can actual these exceed these amounts in my part? We'll see, but geared up with food, salt and will be up for next 24 hours which i guess is par for the course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 Well it's quite clear we will not be getting any consensus lol We will go into the event Canadians vs Americans.. Even with the globals as the GFS is farthest south and the GGEM farthest north, Euro somewhere in-between.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, sferic said: Wow, looking at the probalistice forecase for N Onondaga, wow; 14",? I'll gladly take it Can actual these exceed these amounts in my part? We'll see, but geared up with food, salt and will be up for next 24 hours which i guess is par for the course I’d gladly take the 16 inches. Am I counting on it - no. I expect the heaviest snow to be just north of me and we’ll be lucky to get a couple of inches with the Arctic fropa. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: I’d gladly take the 16 inches. Am I counting on it - no. I expect the heaviest snow to be just north of me and we’ll be lucky to get a couple of inches with the Arctic fropa. Think positive ! I'll gladly take 7 inches but it more than doubled on the probabilistic from 1am to 7am; but we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, sferic said: Think positive ! I'll gladly take 7 inches but it more than doubled on the probabilistic from 1am to 7am; but we'll see I’ve been burned by too many lake effect snow events which has made me a pessimist. I hope I’m wrong and we get a foot plus. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 27 minutes ago, sferic said: Can actual these exceed these amounts in my part? We'll see, but geared up with food, salt and will be up for next 24 hours which i guess is par for the course Bless your Long Island heart. We don't stock up on things in these parts. It may dump snow, and then after a few hours, life goes on. I remember when I moved from Lancaster, PA to a snow belt, I was shocked when we had a foot of snow and schools still opened. The best chance for school closures here is if the heavy snow hits during rush hour and looks to continue. We don't do "snowed in" in these parts unless it's several feet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 21 minutes ago, sferic said: Think positive ! I'll gladly take 7 inches but it more than doubled on the probabilistic from 1am to 7am; but we'll see 12 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: I’ve been burned by too many lake effect snow events which has made me a pessimist. I hope I’m wrong and we get a foot plus. Take CNY's advice. Lake effect snow brings many disappointments and a few Beautiful surprises. It's much easier to take if you expect little and then are pleasantly surprised. I am STILL learning this after 13 years of living in lake effect areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 WPC The best forcing/lift is farther north with the eastern UP, Huron/Georgian Bay, and Lake Ontario favored for heavy LES. Inversion heights climb to 10,000 ft due to as high as 1000 J/kg of instability, snowfall rates will become intense, especially downstream of Lake Ontario streamlines make the effective fetch/additional moisture from Lakes Superior and Huron overlap with long fetch over Lake Ontario directly into orographic lift of the southern Tug Hill late tonight into Monday night. Snowfall of 1.5 to 2"/hr are the mean from the 00Z HREF over this area for at least 20 hours. While the actual single-band will waiver slightly through this time, 24"+ are likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 12 hours ago, tim123 said: Anyone with more knowledge than me can tell me what this sounding means in rochester? It shows a very dry atmosphere basically devoid of any synoptic moisture. It does show very steep low level lapse rates and thus a conditionally unstable boundary layer, but without moisture it doesn’t mean much. Almost no directional wind shear but winds are nearly due west. Lake induced instability would be extreme under that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 51 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: @wolfie09What is the link source for that awesome graphic? Thanks ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, sferic said: @wolfie09What is the link source for that awesome graphic? Thanks ! Yeah no problem.. It's the same source as the posted snowfall totals.. Click on Winter storm severity index.. https://www.weather.gov/bgm/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 9 minutes ago, sferic said: @wolfie09What is the link source for that awesome graphic? Thanks ! 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah no problem.. It's the same source as the posted snowfall totals.. Click on Winter storm severity index.. https://www.weather.gov/bgm/winter My weenie heart didn't know about either of these. Thanks! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah no problem.. It's the same source as the posted snowfall totals.. Click on Winter storm severity index.. https://www.weather.gov/bgm/winter Thank you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 hour ago, CNY_WX said: I’ve been burned by too many lake effect snow events which has made me a pessimist. I hope I’m wrong and we get a foot plus. Watch, we actually get hammered this time...and he'll be thinking...what is wrong with you people? (prolly saying that already). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 Hi Rez Canadian really energizes that band once the front hits and starts slowly pushing south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: Watch, we actually get hammered this time...and he'll be thinking...what is wrong with you people? (prolly saying that already). So what’s the over/under on how much we’ll get by Tuesday morning in northern Onondaga? I’m thinking 6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Hi res RGEM is pushing almost 60" Max on the Kuchera ratio 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Imagine the extremely rare, off chance that the RAP was right. We would get Freak back for a day... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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