wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Discuss ..LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...For the Lake Effect Snow Warning, heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of around 2 feet in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow. For the Winter Weather Advisory, mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Oswego and Lewis counties. Heaviest lake effect snow will focus across northern Oswego and far southwest Lewis counties. * WHEN...For the Lake Effect Snow Warning, from 7 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday. For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 6 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with deep snow cover on roads and very poor visibility later Sunday night through Monday evening. Mixed precipitation may result in very slippery roads Sunday. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 I will continue to be reserved until I'm measuring lol The NWS has busted several times over the years with these big events east of Ontario.. Could wind up just to the south, either way good luck to all.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 I think the jackpot will be a bit further south with Mexico to you and then east to the Southern Tug/where I lived for a winter. 6 to 12 inches for Northern Onondaga county. Both NWS Offices are being pretty cautious about saying much for this region though, which is understandable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I will continue to be reserved until I'm measuring lol The NWS has busted several times over the years with these big events east of Ontario.. Could wind up just to the south, either way good luck to all.. In my opinion you are about in the most perfect spot.... Aside from higher elevations to your East. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 GL to Wolf. If the Tug region is still a snow capital in another 20-25 years when I get to retirement age, I'm definitely either moving or at least buying a seasonal property somewhere up there to live in during the winter months. BGM is too synoptic dependent to satisfy my snow fix. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 8 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: GL to Wolf. If the Tug region is still a snow capital in another 20-25 years when I get to retirement age, I'm definitely either moving or at least buying a seasonal property somewhere up there to live in during the winter months. BGM is too synoptic dependent to satisfy my snow fix. It's a fantastic recreational area, but the economy is severely depressed. It also requires lots of driving if you want to get anywhere...but that's not a problem for some people. Winter driving-wise, they do an incredible job keeping the roads clear. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 BGM gives their first shot: Then BUF's just for reference: Looks like they're matching up pretty well (BGM maybe a little more conservative here). Curious why they are taking it just to 1 am Tuesday, as the NW flow will be in action then, adding to these totals. Maybe because this is the main show and also NW flow is so tough to predict. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 18z Hi Res RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 Thanks BGM..Was just gonna post that..Sharp cutoff right over this area..Granted it's in the long range.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Congrats Wolfe. I’ll enjoy my pity flakes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 from Tom niziol Lake-effect snow event for Tug Hill off Lake Ontario coming up Sun PM thru Mon PM. Could see 2+ feet snowfall. Ridiculous lapse rate on NAM forecast sounding at 51-hr. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 That artic front with lake band pushing across south shore looks to be super intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: That artic front with lake band pushing across south shore looks to be super intense. Sure does. The NWS offices have been tooting about this the past couple days. Super short burst of cold air though. Highs go from single digits on Tuesday to low 30s on Wednesday. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Ratios look to be 25 to 1. Hrrr and rap showing 3 to 5 inches in monroe county in like a 2to 3 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 This is just with front with main lake band. After this is the nnw flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Anyone with more knowledge than me can tell me what this sounding means in rochester? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 9 minutes ago, tim123 said: This is just with front with main lake band. After this is the nnw flow. Is this graphic from pivotal? Which model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 Rgem pretty much the same, 3k came in slightly north with the main band..Still keeps the bulk just to the south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 It's also a razor thin band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, sferic said: Is this graphic from pivotal? Which model? Yes pivitol. Hrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Rgem pretty much the same, 3k came in slightly north with the main band..Still keeps the bulk just to the south.. South of you??? I thought you were in Pulaski /Altmar area...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Never mind....you were talking about the 3k... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Man, if I didn't know the bias of the HRW models, I would be psyched. They look great for N. Cuse weenie zone. Still looking forward to getting whatever we can over the next couple days! Happy for you @wolfie09 and the southern Tug. It's been quite a long wait for a band like this to hit that zone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 11 minutes ago, tim123 said: Yes pivitol. Hrrr On my PC and android phone I get this, How do I get your view? Thanks ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 minute ago, sferic said: On my PC and android phone I get this, How do I get your view? Thanks ! I figured it out, you were using Kuchera, I wasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Is Kuchera a better representation of snow with high ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 12 minutes ago, sferic said: Is Kuchera a better representation of snow with high ratios? Nothing, as of yet, has been created to accurately depict 20-40:1 ratios... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 10 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Nothing, as of yet, has been created to accurately depict 20-40:1 ratios... I'm not sure they accurately depict proper lift in Dgz to me it seems all temperature related 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Thoughts as of now for L. Ontario band through Tue. morning. Teal: 3-6" Blue: 6-10" Yellow: 10-20" Red: 20-40" 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 Looks good lol As expected kbuf riding Rgem with a little NAM.. Favor RGEM/NAM guidance for band placement with some mesoscale guidance appearing unrealistically south with the band given the westerly flow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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