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Sunday ZR potential


stormtracker
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NWS Sterling just issued

Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-
Southeast Harford-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-
354 AM EST Sat Jan 8 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO NOON EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain. Total ice accumulations of around one
  tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Central and northeastern Maryland, including the city of
  Baltimore, and Loudoun County in Virginia.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to noon EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible due to the
  potential of icy roads and sidewalks.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold conditions leading up to this
  event may make it a dangerous situation for anyone travelling
  during this time. Anyone travelling, especially on interstates
  270, 70, 95, 695, and 83 should pay close attention to the
  weather Sunday.
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14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I read this narrated by David Attenborough. I can't get enough of the term "glah-see-er"

“Now witness one of nature’s great spectacles. Middle aged men take their first teetering steps into a world transformed by ice and snow.”

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1 minute ago, Stormfly said:

A tenth of an inch is not really a problem.

A quarter to half inch OTOH, trees aren't going to like that very much.

Yes, it’s not a problem for trees or power lines. However, it can do a number on your ass or your fenders if you aren’t careful.

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14 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

A tenth of an inch is not really a problem.

A quarter to half inch OTOH, trees aren't going to like that very much.

 

12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Yes, it’s not a problem for trees or power lines. However, it can do a number on your ass or your fenders if you aren’t careful.

Very true on both counts.  It doesn't take much to make even walking treacherous.  Heck, yesterday some slight re-freezing of water on a sidewalk got me a bit nervous.  And years ago when I was in Atlanta during an ice storm (close to 1/2", there about), I saw so many trees just get shredded.  Mostly pines and those magnolia trees that keep them all year-round.  Half an inch on large leaves is a disaster for those trees!

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As [mention=178]WinterWxLuvr[/mention] said - it's not only about power outages and trees. Imagine what even a glaze can do for drivers...or your walkway/driveway and your backside. 

yeah, all it took was the refreeze overnight a few years ago to send my not-that-old, fairly athletic neighbor to the hospital with a broken neck. He’s fine now, but was a terrifying night.

I take two things deadly serious: ice and wind. Both are terrible.
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The big takeaway from the morning model runs is that a lot of the guidance delays the arrival of the precip and allows an opportunity to warm up before arrival.     That said:

     1)   The HRRR still has a lead band of precip (out ahead of the main frontal band) moving through the northern half of the area around 12-13Z.    As said previously, even a few hundredths would create huge problems with temperatures likely still in the upper 20s then

     2)    Even if you consider a solution like the NAM Nest which delays precip until 16Z or so, it's about 32 or 33 degrees when it arrives.    Given how cold surfaces will be after a very cold day and night, you can absolutely still get icing on roads and sidewalks in that scenario.

            The biggest threat is certainly for areas a good distance north and northwest of DC, but I do believe that there is a still a decent threat for everyone along and north of I-66 in VA and Rt 50 in MD, and a slight threat likely extends a little bit south of there if the HRRR solution is correct.

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8 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

“Now witness one of nature’s great spectacles. Middle aged men take their first teetering steps into a world transformed by ice and snow.”

*in a lighthearted, playful tone*

The orthopaedic surgeon awakens to the pinging of ice on the window. They survey the landscape with a satisfied nod, knowing today will be a buffet of opportunity.

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I've taken a few hard falls from refreezing water.

You're walking fine and all in a sudden you're down on the ground, back of the head bleeding and all cut up from the edge of the gravel in the tar and chip road.  It's literally like the feeling of a whip pulling your feet out from under you and bam!  And when you get over 50 the risk of concussion is real.

The other type is where you're well aware of the ice, see it, step on it and feel your shoes/boots sliding but you're confident that you can do it.  Then the sliding starts and sometimes you luck out and can grab something like a railing or car.  Or if not so lucky you start a sort of dance on skis thing that can wind up really ugly.

It really looks funny seeing it and its hard not to laugh for sure but people tend to get hurt when this happens.

Number three (guy on driveway) I've done before and the grass is definitely way to go! ;)

 

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34 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

I've taken a few hard falls from refreezing water.

You're walking fine and all in a sudden you're down on the ground, back of the head bleeding and all cut up from the edge of the gravel in the tar and chip road.  It's literally like the feeling of a whip pulling your feet out from under you and bam!  And when you get over 50 the risk of concussion is real.

The other type is where you're well aware of the ice, see it, step on it and feel your shoes/boots sliding but you're confident that you can do it.  Then the sliding starts and sometimes you luck out and can grab something like a railing or car.  Or if not so lucky you start a sort of dance on skis thing that can wind up really ugly.

It really looks funny seeing it and its hard not to laugh for sure but people tend to get hurt when this happens.

Number three (guy on driveway) I've done before and the grass is definitely way to go! ;)

 

Drive way dude is the GOAT of ice falling, lol Still can't watch that one enough

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42 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

I've taken a few hard falls from refreezing water.

You're walking fine and all in a sudden you're down on the ground, back of the head bleeding and all cut up from the edge of the gravel in the tar and chip road.  It's literally like the feeling of a whip pulling your feet out from under you and bam!  And when you get over 50 the risk of concussion is real.

The other type is where you're well aware of the ice, see it, step on it and feel your shoes/boots sliding but you're confident that you can do it.  Then the sliding starts and sometimes you luck out and can grab something like a railing or car.  Or if not so lucky you start a sort of dance on skis thing that can wind up really ugly.

It really looks funny seeing it and its hard not to laugh for sure but people tend to get hurt when this happens.

Number three (guy on driveway) I've done before and the grass is definitely way to go! ;)

 

Lol...they interviewed the couple that fell down their steps.  That should be funnier than the video itself.  "We want you for an exclusive zoom interview about how you fell down on your arse."  Hard up for content I guess?

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