ChescoWx Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Suspect we will once again see WWA posted from Mt. Holly for at the very least western portions of the area. With such a small gap for warming (before the arctic front) and with ample snow cover to the southwest (source of low level warming) and snow cover locally...I think any low level warming will be tough sledding (pardon the pun). Latest NAM certainly catching on to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 2 m temps - my current P&C has 39....I will take the under! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 WWA’s up for SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Think this will be mainly a Berks/W event. Don't think there will be many problems Mont/Bucks counties and east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 56 minutes ago, JTA66 said: WWA’s up for SE PA. WWA coverage from Mt. Holly - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: Think this will be mainly a Berks/W event. Don't think there will be many problems Mont/Bucks counties and east... Western Chesco also....temps never warm as quickly in the higher spots with snow cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 Latest NAM has backed off a bit with impacts mainly to far western areas....we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 All about timing. Most guidance has no precipitation to Philly until early afternoon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 7 minutes ago, MGorse said: All about timing. Most guidance has no precipitation to Philly until early afternoon. And hopefully well above freezing by then although the ground and other surfaces are very cold. I left a windshield cover on my car (that I put on before this last event) just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said: And hopefully well above freezing by then although the ground and other surfaces are very cold. I left a windshield cover on my car (that I put on before this last event) just in case. Yeah hopefully but best to be prepared as you don’t want to mess around with ice. It will be interesting to see how quick the precipitation spreads East as it runs into really dry air initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 minute ago, MGorse said: Yeah hopefully but best to be prepared as you don’t want to mess around with ice. It will be interesting to see how quick the precipitation spreads East as it runs into really dry air initially. Yeah... my dp is down to 10 at the moment although once the warm front lifts, I expect it to gradually moisten up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 35 minutes ago, MGorse said: All about timing. Most guidance has no precipitation to Philly until early afternoon. You better be right, Mike. Otherwise the LV guy is going to come looking for you in 2048 demanding answers 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 My area seems do well in these setups as far as icing goes, not that I want the ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 My WXSIM software has the below - with a high of only 33.7 here in East Nantmeal - my current P&C has 39 degrees for the high. If I was a betting man I would go lower than 39 here tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 The HRRR hits us with the first slug of moisture around 8am, so it’s icy. NAM says that first round misses the Philly area to the north and we don’t see anything until 3pm when it’s just rain. Place your bets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 32 minutes ago, JTA66 said: The HRRR hits us with the first slug of moisture around 8am, so it’s icy. NAM says that first round misses the Philly area to the north and we don’t see anything until 3pm when it’s just rain. Place your bets. $100 on option 2...maybe not 3pm but past noon and no ice problems. 31F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 The great folks at the NWS Office in Mount Holly seem concerned...understanding of course if no precipitation reaches till later as some models depict...no worries - but best to be safe in these situations. I suspect in higher spots like here in NW Chesco it will be a slow slog to get temps to get much above freezing....of note even if surface temps do warm to slightly above freezing ice accretion will continue when coming off so many hours of below freezing conditions Unlike most warming winter precipitation events in our area, this one will begin from the deep freeze. This means that the impacts of freezing rain will likely be virtually immediate. Hazardous travel may develop very quickly once precipitation begins, which will be important to message for this event. Additionally, did expand the advisory to New Castle County (despite lower confidence on icing this far south), given the potential quick impacts to travel on the I-95 corridor in northern Delaware should freezing rain occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 NAM still not interested in tomorrow’s event for the Philly area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 WWA tweaked to remove Philly, New Castle, DE & Mercer/Middlesex, NJ - Quote Since the precipitation should not reach the Interstate 95 Corridor until close to midday, temperatures there and at locations to the south and east should be above freezing at that time. Therefore, we have removed the following counties from the Winter Weather Advisory: New Castle DE, Delaware PA, Philadelphia PA, Mercer NJ and Middlesex NJ. When I pulled up the radar about 90 minutes ago, I was a bit surprised to see that it was generally void of precip, so it's moving slower than progged and is hitting that subsidence from the dry air. However it has moistened up gradually here overnight. My current 24 dp is like day and night compared to the 9 that got down to yesterday. Temp here is now up to 30 and there is a distinct deck of clouds overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 well looks like temps are warmer then they thought they would be as normal over night. Forecast low was mid to upper teens only got to 23. I dont need ice today id rather have nothing happen and it be in the mid 30s whats also crazy I have one weather site reporting im 30 one saying im 26 another saying 28 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 31F and precip isn't really close, it will be above freezing when it arrives. It was always a far burbs event if even there? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Sun is breaking through/out...33F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Here it's kind of oppositeville, rain looks to be practically on the doorstep, unless it's virga, but temp is all the way up to 33. Last night it appeared it might hold off till noon at least (down here), so it looks early to me. On the temp side it's warmed up pretty well, although dp is 24 so there could be some wet-bulbing, and no doubt the ground is still cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Precip about an hour away and I'm at 34F so no problems here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 The sun was out just a bit ago. Precip had started here and temp is at 33. Up 2 degrees from 8 am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 33 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Sun is breaking through/out...33F Likewise here, temp up to 34F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Damn shame conditions weren't different. This would have been a nice little refresher/snow on snow event before more arctic air moves in tomorrow and especially Tuesday.. 34F/Cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 ZR has begun here in NW Chester County in East Nantmeal temp at 30.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Temp here now up to 36 with dp 28 and overcast. Sun hasn't made an appearance here as yet through the cloud deck. My low so far this morning was actually at midnight at 25. Half the snowpack is gone and lots of melting going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 Looks like most folks in Western Chesco are still below freezing. Hopefully we warm up by noon as the NWS predicts for the county. As mentioned before it is usually a pretty slow slog in the relatively higher spots in the county like mine over 600 ft ASL -NWS has 41 here for the high...I will bet we stay in the 30's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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