OBS-Nowcast: ICE likely 4A-Noon Sunday January 9. Onset time uncertain but a 1-5 hour period of freezing rain-sleet should occur sometime in the morning. Possible afternoon extension I84 corridor.

[wdrag]

Have added the 5AM January 7 NWS ensemble probability of .01 freezing rain Sunday.  These probabilities are quite high for a day 3 forecast. Not talking damaging to trees and wires but with the fresh snow cover, frozen ground and modeled dew points not exceeding 32F Sunday, ice looks highly probable, even to NYC-LI. Depends on timing.  IF the precipitation doesn't arrive til 11AM or after in NYC (I95 to the coast) then treated pavements will be okay. Winds at the surface will probably be light southerly-southwest. This should ensure the LI coast to easily warm above freezing in the afternoon, if not during late morning. 

RGEM and NWS ensemble is the basis of this thread. 

The GFS still doesn't handle boundary layer temps very well.  The EC looks better than the GFS but it too doesn't appear as threatening as the Canadian and SREF (oh no-the SREF?).

Also: while the primary thread time frame is Sunday morning, it's possible periods of freezing rain can linger into mid afternoon along the I84 corridor hills which includes nw NJ/se NYS northern CT. Have even seen modeling turn this to a short period of light snow north of I84 but am not convinced.

 

 

[wdrag]

The advisories were issued this morning to just about I-95.

It's a matter to details and any eastward extension.  In my opinion, I think we'll need to see an extension into western LI to near Islip and all of southwest coast including Stamford-Bridgeport, but that is only an opinion based on EC/RGEM from 00z-06Z and I could be wrong.  It's light but a problem with frozen ground and subfreezing temps to start the day.

Other issues: How much wind-mixing? I have my doubts regarding temps rising above freezing in the I84 corridor hills (extreme nw NJ/Poconos/se NYS). Then,  when another short duration period of rain comes along around sundown, it could be more icing.  Finally, it clears overnight Sunday night but if the wind doesn't mix down to dry out the pavements, it could re-ice. 

NWS ensemble chance of icing...if you use this, check the legend for the probabilities. BOS-NYC-DCA on the edge... can go either way. 

[SnoSki14]

We're fortunate this is mostly occuring during midday as well as the weekend.

If it were an early Monday morning event it would have been a big problem.

[wdrag]

34 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We're fortunate this is mostly occuring during midday as well as the weekend.

If it were an early Monday morning event it would have been a big problem.

No one should be surprised if this happens at 7AM, per RGEM and now the 06z ECMWF.  

[wdrag]

and now the most bullish model from the 12z cycle: the HRRR... Pretty interesting and there are now model hints that icing lasts into mid afternoon parts of the distant nw suburbs. Also, keeping in mind the HRRR tends to be a warmer model of the suite, certainly warmer than the RGEM and NAM.

[wdrag]

Wont be posting 345-630PM. 

What a mess coming tomorrow.  Added the 12z/8 SPC HREF freezing rain, and the HRRRX freezing rain.

There probably will be a relative dry slot tomorrow morning, where only T or .01. and some of these modeled amounts may end up sleet. Still, pretty impressive. Also i checked the HRRRX PTYPE at 18z (1PM) Sunday... still freezing rain much of the interior 20-30 miles nw of I95, presuming it's precipitating. 

[ForestHillWx]

Lovely. Skating rink time. 

[the_other_guy]

I mean, for most of the metro area this is a rain event 

I dont want to minimize icing possibilities, on the other hand, thats kind of the situation in our urban areas.

I84 corridor is very used to ice storms and will handle this without much issue

 

[qg_omega]

7 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

I mean, for most of the metro area this is a rain event 

I dont want to minimize icing possibilities, on the other hand, thats kind of the situation in our urban areas.

I84 corridor is very used to ice storms and will handle this without much issue

 

Did you miss what happened on Wednesday?

[Juliancolton]

Just now, qg_omega said:

Did you miss what happened on Wednesday?

Newburgh is basically Nunavut. We'll just use our snow machines and Zamboni-brand ice resurfacers to get around.

[HVSnowLover]

24 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

I mean, for most of the metro area this is a rain event 

I dont want to minimize icing possibilities, on the other hand, thats kind of the situation in our urban areas.

I84 corridor is very used to ice storms and will handle this without much issue

 

Agree its not out of the norm but still .25 icing for the interior is never anything to ignore and even wouldnt be surprised if it is icy near I95 tomorrow morning. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

37 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

I mean, for most of the metro area this is a rain event 

I dont want to minimize icing possibilities, on the other hand, thats kind of the situation in our urban areas.

I84 corridor is very used to ice storms and will handle this without much issue

 

I am in Rockland county and Wednesday was a sh!t show here. People do NOT know how to handle or drive on ice the best way to handle it is to stay home if you can

[psv88]

Even on the island roads were icy last week.

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

I am in Rockland county and Wednesday was a sh!t show here. People do NOT know how to handle or drive on ice the best way to handle it is to stay home if you can

Rockland was a disgrace. There is no way the DPW crews did not know it was coming. It was advertised 24 hours before and a WWA was posted. They should have been on the roads salting everything before it even started, instead they went out after it was already a disaster and played catch up. There were accidents galore that morning 

[the_other_guy]

I didn’t miss what happened. I was one of the first people to post in the observation thread about what was happening.

 

The reality is it’s Sunday morning. Very low traffic.

I hate to contradict anybody on here because I don’t want to get into an online spat.

Guys were talking about icing in the city icing on Staten Island. Icing stopped south of the cross county. It was near 40° in the city. 

It was actually one of my best rides into Jfk because nobody could get into the city from the north and once I cleared that hurdle there was almost no traffic at all.

Things get overblown on this site for better or worse. 

If you live in an urban area, this may be a little ice in the morning…but mostly a non event, light rain day for your Sunday

 

 

 

[wdrag]

Will probably convert this thread at 9PM to OBS-Nowcast with same headline.  

[BxEngine]

Its simple. If the storm doesnt affect your area, dont post in a thread involving that threat. Not sure why it matters that it only affects part of the metro area. 

[BxEngine]

10 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

I didn’t miss what happened. I was one of the first people to post in the observation thread about what was happening.

 

The reality is it’s Sunday morning. Very low traffic.

I hate to contradict anybody on here because I don’t want to get into an online spat.

Guys were talking about icing in the city icing on Staten Island. Icing stopped south of the cross county. It was near 40° in the city. 

It was actually one of my best rides into Jfk because nobody could get into the city from the north and once I cleared that hurdle there was almost no traffic at all.

Things get overblown on this site for better or worse. 

If you live in an urban area, this may be a little ice in the morning…but mostly a non event, light rain day for your Sunday

 

 

 

And this isnt true. I dealt with severe icing and numerous accidents miles south of the cross county. Now lets move on. 

[the_other_guy]

Just now, BxEngine said:

Its simple. If the storm doesnt affect your area, dont post in a thread involving that threat. Not sure why it matters that it only affects part of the metro area. 

Actually it does affect my area.

And I’m giving my opinion that it’s going to be a Sunday morning, non event

 

Thats all.

[BxEngine]

Just now, jfklganyc said:

Actually it does affect my area.

And I’m giving my opinion that it’s going to be a Sunday morning, non event

 

Thats all.

Great. For some, this is an event. 

[SnoSki14]

51 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Actually it does affect my area.

And I’m giving my opinion that it’s going to be a Sunday morning, non event

 

Thats all.

The timing is a relief. Had it been on a Monday morning there would've been big problems. 

I do think the icing will be worse than forecast. It's gonna be a challenge warming up those surface temps. Should be in the teens tonight. Roads are also even colder.

[weatherpruf]

30 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The timing is a relief. Had it been on a Monday morning there would've been big problems. 

I do think the icing will be worse than forecast. It's gonna be a challenge warming up those surface temps. Should be in the teens tonight. Roads are also even colder.

We had icing in Woodbridge the other day in the morning; it eased up later but for awhile it was hazardous and the guy remodeling our bathroom almost injured himself on the porch stairs, where I didn't put salt. Doesn't look like a non-event from the maps I've seen, though probably not one we'll have to worry about once it warms up in this neck of the woods. Sleep late I guess. Where ya gonna go these days anyway?

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Rockland was a disgrace. There is no way the DPW crews did not know it was coming. It was advertised 24 hours before and a WWA was posted. They should have been on the roads salting everything before it even started, instead they went out after it was already a disaster and played catch up. There were accidents galore that morning 

Snow man it was unreal as anyone who lives here or nearby knows, my son was driving to school and totally lost all control of the car and wound up luckily on some guys lawn and not much worse the roads were as bad as I have ever seen them as far as not being treated. Hopefully tomorrow IF conditions call for it be it the weekend or not they do a better job and stay on top of this if needed and not react after the fact 

[Nibor]

Yikes

[Juliancolton]

Down to 12F/6F already - ideal radiating conditions so far this evening in advance of WAA onset. Surfaces are getting nice and cold to maximize ice accretion tomorrow. 

[wishcast_hater]

16° here, I wish there was more discussion in this thread regarding tomorrow. After going through Wednesdays ice capades I don’t want to get stuck or worse crash

[Tatamy]

5 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

I didn’t miss what happened. I was one of the first people to post in the observation thread about what was happening.

 

The reality is it’s Sunday morning. Very low traffic.

I hate to contradict anybody on here because I don’t want to get into an online spat.

Guys were talking about icing in the city icing on Staten Island. Icing stopped south of the cross county. It was near 40° in the city. 

It was actually one of my best rides into Jfk because nobody could get into the city from the north and once I cleared that hurdle there was almost no traffic at all.

Things get overblown on this site for better or worse. 

If you live in an urban area, this may be a little ice in the morning…but mostly a non event, light rain day for your Sunday

 

 

 

Take a drive into NYC tomorrow morning and let us know how you make out.  Maybe the models will be wrong.

[wdrag]

Likely my last post for the evening. Watch IPW-ZRW- showers, sometimes it ends up south of modeled. We'll know more in the morning. 

21/12 at the house in Wantage at 751PM with a light southwest wind.  Often 23F at the surface or 23F  somewhere in the sounding below the above freezing layer means sleet instead of zr. 

[crossbowftw3]

21/9(!) at my location. Even with max accretions topping out at .25” it’s going to accrete very well

[hudsonvalley21]

51 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Down to 12F/6F already - ideal radiating conditions so far this evening in advance of WAA onset. Surfaces are getting nice and cold to maximize ice accretion tomorrow. 

Pretty impressive. 18/12 here currently.