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Jan 7 Two-Headed Coastal Obs


40/70 Benchmark
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Just missed the real good stuff here with 5.8, still a nice wintry appeal and fun snow day for the kids. Definitely a bit frustrating when banding has tended to set up just SE of here in winter events but I'll take what I can get. Hopefully far NW areas up toward Hippy and ALY get themselves a big time interior crusher.  

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Something I thought of. If you are one of the jacks and you get under the fluff band.. for example JC.. and he got 14”.. does that compact more than a 9-11” amount that was not directly under the fluff band? Another words .. does the town that got 14” of Uber fluff and the town two miles away that got 10”. Do they both end up with about the same amount OTG by the following day?

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I’ll be honest…I had a lil over 9” here, and it’s compacted big time just today!  This is Uber Puff and Fluff!!   
 

Blizzard of February 2006 was the same way…20+ inches of fluff(it was beautiful) compacted down to nothing in a couple(mild) days!   It’s gorgeous, but it has Zero staying power. 

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It was an interesting event and one I’ll want to look over in more detail the next few days. The PVA was really strong and in an almost perfect spot to maximize lift which undoubtedly helped take advantage of that strong ML fronto….but we never were able to get the conveyors cranking which is too bad because it prob would’ve been widespread 8-12 with 18 lollis if it did…but we have no room to complain where we are considering how well we did. 
 
And while I understand eduggs’ sentiment on convective feedback, it is a real thing that we’ve seen happen. Even on short lead time, but usually you won’t have every single model showing it at 24 hours if it’s spurious. However, the convection can still be real but the models are overdoing the conveyor disruption…and that is really more what was being followed last night rather than hoping the convective feedback was mostly spurious. It’s not necessarily a binary event. If the convective interference was being overdone by even 30 or 40%, then that would matter. 
Yeah was thinking last night we should have been more tipped off by the realtime obs of an overproducer in KY/WV. I'm faulting myself for not weighing that more and being too misled by HRRR/RAP trends. The ML fronto 3-8am was really the main story of the event and saved the higher-end forecasts. 
Conveyor mechanics were definitely not the best. We saw a little 850 easterly advection in the second half after 12z give a bit of regeneration to radar returns, but it wasn't anywhere like our more organized storms. So, taking out the ML fronto band (boosted with higher SLRs), I think the convective interference did significantly diminish the overall storm outcome.
All hobbyist thoughts... you and Coastal and others are great teachers.
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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Something I thought of. If you are one of the jacks and you get under the fluff band.. for example JC.. and he got 14”.. does that compact more than a 9-11” amount that was not directly under the fluff band? Another words .. does the rush that got 14” of Uber fluff and the town two miles Sat that got 10”. Do they both end up with about the same amount OTG by the following day?

There’s a few factors…amounts of certain snow crystals in the pack (feathery dendrites vs more compact crystals), strength of wind (drifting), relative humidity (sublimation), weight of snow in the pack (the weight of the snow upon itself), etc. I’m going to assume he had more water equivalent than you which explains his higher total. So the rates of compaction will probably be similar assuming you both had similar percentages of large dendritic growth. However he’ll still have more in the very near term… at least until those 30s creep in.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

There’s a few factors…amounts of certain snow crystals in the pack (feathery dendrites vs more compact crystals), strength of wind (drifting), relative humidity (sublimation), weight of snow in the pack (the weight of the snow upon itself), etc. I’m going to assume he had more water equivalent than you which explains his higher total. So the rates of compaction will probably be similar assuming you both had similar percentages of large dendritic growth. However he’ll still have more in the very near term… at least until those 30s creep in.

We compact

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Something I thought of. If you are one of the jacks and you get under the fluff band.. for example JC.. and he got 14”.. does that compact more than a 9-11” amount that was not directly under the fluff band? Another words .. does the town that got 14” of Uber fluff and the town two miles away that got 10”. Do they both end up with about the same amount OTG by the following day?

I would think if they had equal  L.E. they will both have same otg within 24hrs  after compaction. Fluff looks great but  goes down fast

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17 minutes ago, rgwp96 said:

I would think if they had equal  L.E. they will both have same otg within 24hrs  after compaction. Fluff looks great but  goes down fast

Snow likes to find 10:1 ratios eventually in my experience, or near there.  But those under the band almost certainly had more QPF as well.

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5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I thought the Berkshires would ratio their way to a few inches of fluff...wow

We ratioed at the ski area this afternoon/evening.  Nothing like 0.10-0.15” and like 4-5” :lol:.  J.Spin pulling 50-65:1 ratios the past two days in his liquid analysis.  When like 0.03-0.04” water is 2”/hr.

C6C38D4A-4DC4-4718-8BE8-62354E5EF794.thumb.jpeg.3afab67c4eb44d4a0ee81830696f31e8.jpeg

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24 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

When I woke up early this morning and saw all the CT posters doing naked snow angels again I figured Ray was either filling up the bathtub with toaster in hand, or in the fast lane on 93 furiously driving towards the Tobin.

If there’s ever a doubt, just pencil somewhere in CT for the mega band 

I set my alarm for 615, but I had a feeling the band was in CT and sw of Boston, the usual spots....so I went back to bed until 9am without even looking.

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13 hours ago, NeonPeon said:

Good lord that is typical.  I ended up with about 3.5 inches. Cement then a powder puff on top. Drive in any direction and the snow immediately gets deeper.

A friend of my son lives in Bristol for school. This was the first snow event he has seen there. He texted our son “so it does something besides rain here?”

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1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I think he texted our son 4” but prob just eyeballed it.   Not a weather weenie.  Bristol can also vary quite a bit since it is on a peninsula 

Yeah I know a meteorologist there. I think he had about 6” where he lives. Cool town though.

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