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Jan 7 Two-Headed Coastal Obs


40/70 Benchmark
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5 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

Good lord that is typical.  I ended up with about 3.5 inches. Cement then a powder puff on top. Drive in any direction and the snow immediately gets deeper.

Sorry man, Newport is never in a good spot, except for some of those redeveloping Alberta clippers that shoot by directly south of New England... not much better up here.  We usually get 125-150% of whatever Newport gets in most situations.

it-is-what-it-is.jpg

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5 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Sorry man, Newport is never in a good spot, except for some of those redeveloping Alberta clippers that shoot by directly south of New England... not much better up here.  We usually get 125-150% of whatever Newport gets in most situations.

it-is-what-it-is.jpg

I don’t even remember the last time we got one of those clippers.

Wasnt them clippers a big thing from like 2003-2005? I do recall several snow events that clipped the coast with light snow while Woonsocket was cold and dry.

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14 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

I don’t even remember the last time we got one of those clippers.

Wasnt them clippers a big thing from like 2003-2005? I do recall several snow events that clipped the coast with light snow while Woonsocket was cold and dry.

I'm not that good at keeping track of them personally.  I remember a lot of them when I was growing up (80s/90s) - a lot of 2-4" or 3-6" south of Providence and 1-3" north of Providence maps on TV when those storms would come around.  Usually they would perform as expected.

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24 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Ha I actually was looking through charts of that event last night when Hoth was trying to remember the date of a similar event with runaway convective processes.

Yeah (also in response to @40/70 Benchmark) this was not an easy forecast at all, and I definitely was nervous of a Messenger shuffle as guidance started favoring the easternmost low last evening that we had previously minimized as convection-driven. I was steady all week with 3-6/4-8 across eastern SNE that I mostly attributed to advection from a deepening surface low, but those thoughts did not reflect the bigger story of the event which ended being that nearly stationary fronto band overnight.

It was an interesting event and one I’ll want to look over in more detail the next few days. The PVA was really strong and in an almost perfect spot to maximize lift which undoubtedly helped take advantage of that strong ML fronto….but we never were able to get the conveyors cranking which is too bad because it prob would’ve been widespread 8-12 with 18 lollis if it did…but we have no room to complain where we are considering how well we did. 
 

And while I understand eduggs’ sentiment on convective feedback, it is a real thing that we’ve seen happen. Even on short lead time, but usually you won’t have every single model showing it at 24 hours if it’s spurious. However, the convection can still be real but the models are overdoing the conveyor disruption…and that is really more what was being followed last night rather than hoping the convective feedback was mostly spurious. It’s not necessarily a binary event. If the convective interference was being overdone by even 30 or 40%, then that would matter. 

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21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You got the point . If it snows that far NW .. Most of SNE gets the goods. I honestly don’t think of your area as SNE . You are more ENY Climo 

I’m still like 50 miles from the New York border.  If anything I’m CNE or whatever S VT is considered to be.  WCNE? 

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37 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

I don’t even remember the last time we got one of those clippers.

Wasnt them clippers a big thing from like 2003-2005? I do recall several snow events that clipped the coast with light snow while Woonsocket was cold and dry.

Wasnt Jan 2015 a clipper (on roids)?

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16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It was an interesting event and one I’ll want to look over in more detail the next few days. The PVA was really strong and in an almost perfect spot to maximize lift which undoubtedly helped take advantage of that strong ML fronto….but we never were able to get the conveyors cranking which is too bad because it prob would’ve been widespread 8-12 with 18 lollis if it did…but we have no room to complain where we are considering how well we did. 
 

And while I understand eduggs’ sentiment on convective feedback, it is a real thing that we’ve seen happen. Even on short lead time, but usually you won’t have every single model showing it at 24 hours if it’s spurious. However, the convection can still be real but the models are overdoing the conveyor disruption…and that is really more what was being followed last night rather than hoping the convective feedback was mostly spurious. It’s not necessarily a binary event. If the convective interference was being overdone by even 30 or 40%, then that would matter. 

I’m not sure it was an inhibitor like models showed. It seems like Mother Nature was like...”ok I have a half inch of equivalent and all the forcing to make it so...” and that’s what happened. We didn’t need like 2SD PWAT. Just something to squeeze it out. Everything I saw was bullish but that dual low had me wondering if the precipitation shield would be more fractured. Probably should have known when the NAM was showing nearly 0.4” QPF in 3 hours with 700 temps as cold as they were.

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First post of the season for me after some occasional lurking...   About 5-6" here in Scarborough, ME. Certainly nothing special in terms of intensity or duration, but nice to cover things back up again - and glad we'll have a pack for the upcoming cold snap.

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