dendrite Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Dendrite had like 4"...strange That was actually well modeled. Most models had more here than in the Berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Well it's probably a good thing you're not a mod then, since I don't think many here would agree with you weenie-tagging mets like Will and Tip. Will is one of the few on here whom I almost never disagree with. I still would have weenie tagged him when he mentioned it... at least briefly 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: That was actually well modeled. I thought the Berkshires would ratio their way to a few inches of fluff...wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 KBOS final 11.7" per NWS twitter Great storm to placate a lot of early seasonal frustrations. As always, a great place to learn from the mets here. The map below I think predominantly reflects (1) 700mb frontogenic band in response to vigorous shortwave and great SLRs, overlayed in 2nd half with (2) deepening of the farther-east-than-could've-been surface low with ensuing advection through 850-700 mb layer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: They only had 1-3" out in the Berkshires? Yup. 2.8” in Savoy at 2k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Dendrite had like 4"...strange Initial band didn’t hit them and then as SLP Developed past their longitude you could see all eastern half of NH and most of Maine fill with precip . Berks prob got .15 or less precip 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, wxsniss said: KBOS final 11.7" per NWS twitter Great storm to placate a lot of early seasonal frustrations. As always, a great place to learn from the mets here. The map below I think predominantly reflects (1) 700mb frontogenic band in response to vigorous shortwave and great SLRs, overlayed in 2nd half with (2) deepening of the farther-east-than-could've-been surface low with ensuing advection through 850-700 mb layer That map shows the brutal qpf cutoff to the NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: That map shows the brutal qpf cutoff to the NW. ya I mean NW Corner CT W Berks and monads basically didn’t have a storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Initial band didn’t hit them and then as SLP Developed past their longitude you could see all eastern half of NH and most of Maine fill with precip . Berks prob got .15 or less precip Yeah, it really only snowed for a few hours in NW MA and S VT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Yup. 2.8” in Savoy at 2k. It snowed back to ALB 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 13 minutes ago, wxsniss said: KBOS final 11.7" per NWS twitter Great storm to placate a lot of early seasonal frustrations. As always, a great place to learn from the mets here. The map below I think predominantly reflects (1) 700mb frontogenic band in response to vigorous shortwave and great SLRs, overlayed in 2nd half with (2) deepening of the farther-east-than-could've-been surface low with ensuing advection through 850-700 mb layer These maps are always terrible. 7" inches in shown for "3 WSW Franklin" in SE CT was reported at 6:26am during the heaviest snow. It snowed for another 3+ hours in that location. I finished at 8.9" - 15 miles due south of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 I graded this effort an A-. Although the forecast philosophy never wavered from the notion of a major storm (frustrated posts on a message board not withstanding), in the end the flaw with the forecast was that I was not intensely concentrated enough with the area of deformation. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/01/verification-of-friday-major-winter.html 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I graded this effort an A-. Although the forecast philosophy never wavered from the notion of a major storm (frustrated posts on a message board not withstanding), in the end the flaw with the forecast was that I was not intensely concentrated enough with the area of deformation. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/01/verification-of-friday-major-winter.html 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: That map shows the brutal qpf cutoff to the NW. Yeah brutal for the NW crew... I think reflects how much of this event was carried by that one mesoscale feature 3-8am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 I got scared by the double low. Me ftl. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It snowed back to ALB Yes, Albany got 1” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I graded this effort an A-. Although the forecast philosophy never wavered from the notion of a major storm (frustrated posts on a message board not withstanding), in the end the flaw with the forecast was that I was not intensely concentrated enough with the area of deformation. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/01/verification-of-friday-major-winter.html It seems rather difficult to even figure out where that deformation band sets up in New England. It's different just about every time with these storms. It's also why we will never be able to predict snowfall to the inch - you get into the larger predictions and the range needs to be larger to account for the bands. It may take another decade of modeling resolution increases to get close to that point. I thought your forecast was on point and 6-12 seems valid for most of the area. The Cape busted high because that band was really juicy at the end and temps did not get quite as warm as expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, metagraphica said: These maps are always terrible. 7" inches in shown for "3 WSW Franklin" in SE CT was reported at 6:26am during the heaviest snow. It snowed for another 3+ hours in that location. I finished at 8.9" - 15 miles due south of there. Agree Our area usually gets shafted by an early and/or Winthrop sewage plant measurement that gets propagated in media. But Boston actually got a representative measurement this time. I just put the map up for a synoptic visual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Man I shoveled a lot of out to sea QG Omega. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 hours ago, dendrite said: Nice round numbers on this one. 4.0”/0.30” So even up here we managed 13:1. 4.1” final here. Sad panda. Got into some good deformation snow for a bit this morning, but it was transient. I figured 4-6” for PWM because of the shape of the coastline on this one, but still hurts to see the waste water treatment plant pushing a foot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Just now, wxsniss said: Agree Our area usually gets shafted by an early and/or Winthrop sewage plant measurement that gets propagated in media. But Boston actually got a representative measurement this time. I just put the map up for a synoptic visual. Oh deer island supposedly had 5” at like noon. Lmao. Can you imagine if they were official? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 10 minutes ago, metagraphica said: These maps are always terrible. 7" inches in shown for "3 WSW Franklin" in SE CT was reported at 6:26am during the heaviest snow. It snowed for another 3+ hours in that location. I finished at 8.9" - 15 miles due south of there. There are humans digging through the hundreds of reports and updating that map as fast as they can. They actually take hours to put together if there are a lot of reports. Since plenty of this fell after CoCoRaHS report times, they have to wait to tomorrow anyway for an event total map. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 6 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: ya I mean NW Corner CT W Berks and monads basically didn’t have a storm Not feeling so badly about my 6" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I got scared by the double low. Me ftl. Tell that to March 21, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Just now, JC-CT said: Tell that to March 21, 2018 That event sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That event sucked. Right...the fear was real 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Oh deer island supposedly had 5” at like noon. Lmao. Can you imagine if they were official? Lol I too saw that in the PNS. Trigger warning for weenies in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 39 minutes ago, wxsniss said: KBOS final 11.7" per NWS twitter Great storm to placate a lot of early seasonal frustrations. As always, a great place to learn from the mets here. The map below I think predominantly reflects (1) 700mb frontogenic band in response to vigorous shortwave and great SLRs, overlayed in 2nd half with (2) deepening of the farther-east-than-could've-been surface low with ensuing advection through 850-700 mb layer Good lord that is typical. I ended up with about 3.5 inches. Cement then a powder puff on top. Drive in any direction and the snow immediately gets deeper. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Tell that to March 21, 2018 Ha I actually was looking through charts of that event last night when Hoth was trying to remember the date of a similar event with runaway convective processes. Yeah (also in response to @40/70 Benchmark) this was not an easy forecast at all, and I definitely was nervous of a Messenger shuffle as guidance started favoring the easternmost low last evening that we had previously minimized as convection-driven. I was steady all week with 3-6/4-8 across eastern SNE that I mostly attributed to advection from a deepening surface low, but those thoughts did not reflect the bigger story of the event which ended being that nearly stationary fronto band overnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 What I cleared today did not seem like fluff. I think BOS LE will be revised up as often happens in snow events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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