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Jan 7 Two-Headed Coastal Obs


40/70 Benchmark
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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s Clown maps ftl though. Back in the old days there was more to it. I think models overall did a good job inside D3 indicating the features at play and the subtle trends nw along with the banding signal. Too often (myself included), we use qpf or clowns to paint a picture while being thrown off by all the models that run 24x per day. There is way too much noise these-days. Less is better.
 

I’m still learning how to interpret soundings and fronto. I wish we could do a gtg but instead of listening to everyone’s drunken snow stories…it could be scooter, will, and others using a white board teaching us some met stuff. Eat, smoke, drink, and learn…

Having TT add 700 and 850 fronto maps has been fantastic. I'm sure there is more to it than looking for the fronto, but just doing that has been working out decently for me.

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Just now, JC-CT said:

Having TT add 700 and 850 fronto maps has been fantastic. I'm sure there is more to it than looking for the fronto, but just doing that has been working out decently for me.

Scooter had a good post on that using just h7 winds. That helped. I’d like to pick Wizzy’s brain at some point too, to understand the fancy bufkit and omega stuff he does.

I like to clown around with the best of them but when I latch onto a hobby, I want to be great at it. 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Scooter had a good post on that using just h7 winds. That helped. I’d like to pick Wizzy’s brain at some point too, to understand the fancy bufkit and omega stuff he does.

I like to clown around with the best of them but when I latch onto a hobby, I want to be great at it. 

Yeah, I'm surprisingly lazy and just want a clown map to trust lmao. But a saturated column and lift within the dendrite growth zone are ones I can usually manage - especially when they are labeled for me like with TTs soundings lmao.

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19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s Clown maps ftl though. Back in the old days there was more to it. I think models overall did a good job inside D3 indicating the features at play and the subtle trends nw along with the banding signal. Too often (myself included), we use qpf or clowns to paint a picture while being thrown off by all the models that run 24x per day. There is way too much noise these-days. Less is better.
 

I’m still learning how to interpret soundings and fronto. I wish we could do a gtg but instead of listening to everyone’s drunken snow stories…it could be scooter, will, and others using a white board teaching us some met stuff. Eat, smoke, drink, and learn…

I second that, we could learn more in an afternoon than we know, of course we can still drink beers.

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Box in case this wasn't posted earlier:

Well, the snowfall has over performed, especially in the
mesoscale snow band that developed early this morning. It
appears the liquid precipitation aspect of the forecast was
quite accurate, however excellent dendritic growth conditions
setup in that band, leading to SLRs of greater than 20:1. That
greatly exceeded our expectation of SLRs in the 12-14:1 range
and are pretty rare around these parts. That fluffy snow is a
whole lot easier to clear, that is for sure.
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39 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s Clown maps ftl though. Back in the old days there was more to it. I think models overall did a good job inside D3 indicating the features at play and the subtle trends nw along with the banding signal. Too often (myself included), we use qpf or clowns to paint a picture while being thrown off by all the models that run 24x per day. There is way too much noise these-days. Less is better.
 

I’m still learning how to interpret soundings and fronto. I wish we could do a gtg but instead of listening to everyone’s drunken snow stories…it could be scooter, will, and others using a white board teaching us some met stuff. Eat, smoke, drink, and learn…

I still think the models do a good job of highlighting the banding and max areas if you know where to look for it. 
 

Both weenies and Mets get sucked in by pretty QPF and clown maps. In the days when models were coarse, you would have to paint a general area for heavier snow and caveat “locally higher” but now the resolution tries to pin it to your backyard. So when it gets taken away the next run people get upset. That didn’t happen as much on an 80 km grid.

If you find the relevant features aloft, QPF be damned. 

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34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Getting some nice little bands rotating in. Not accumulating too much from these but coating up where I shoveled…might pick up another couple tenths  

image.gif.6361ad36fbe8296233f46f800a499eb1.gif

Right!  I’m a mile away from home running some errands thinking “wait a minute boys, this one’s not dead!”.    Didn’t empty the board (cleared at the 6 hour from snow starting point and still have some time and busy otherwise so maybe I’ll pick up a few tenths more.  Great way to usher in a new pattern!   And enough to withstand whatever Sunday’s warmth throws at us.

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49 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Hopefully it’s our turn next storm.  The local ski areas desperately need snow. (Berkshire East, Mt Snow, Stratton) 

agreed!  I would gladly trade the 13" we got at home today for half as much at Bromley last week when we were there.  Hoping things turn around for that area soon.

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These events, kind of like December 2020, are hard because you can’t broad-brush 20:1 all over the place, but it’s also hard to go much more than 24 hours lead time on that kind of band placement.

I personally think too many local NWS offices try and capture the max totals (mine included) rather than it be a “most correct” forecast. But every once and a while one of these sneaks through where the band really does maximize what was available.

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7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I still think the models do a good job of highlighting the banding and max areas if you know where to look for it. 
 

Both weenies and Mets get sucked in by pretty QPF and clown maps. In the days when models were coarse, you would have to paint a general area for heavier snow and caveat “locally higher” but now the resolution tries to pin it to your backyard. So when it gets taken away the next run people get upset. That didn’t happen as much on an 80 km grid.

If you find the relevant features aloft, QPF be damned. 

Wish i would've been sitting on top of the Cashes Ledge Buoy earlier today, Looked like 2"+/hr rates there.

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