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Jan 7 Two-Headed Coastal Obs


40/70 Benchmark
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2 minutes ago, Greg said:

Not totally accurate. the ratios were more like 12-13-1 ratios. If you were luckey to be in the narrow Mega band then, 15-1 ratios were probably closer to the truth there. 20-1 ratio would be a little too high of an estimate.

None of the reporting stations in CT or EMA have recorded big liquid equivalent numbers. Maybe they underreport, I don't know. But at least in the NYC area, spotter reports and NWS measurements are showing 15:1 to 20:1 ratios.

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3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

It's a popular hobby to shit on the models. I'm just trying to counter that with factual observations. A positive snowfall bust does not necessarily mean a model bust.

When the Euro had me at 3.5”, and I got 9+, that’s a model bust.  No matter which way you slice it. 

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1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

You and others nailed the fronto signals. We were also posting soundings with great crosshair / snowgrowth potential.

But the dual low issue and definite (and ultimately correct) trends to emphasize the easternmost surface low, along with the new downtrends on RAP/HRRR, were not easy to ignore.

I think only after we were seeing the strong radar returns off NJ entering LI that I posted ~10pm was there some evidence the s/w was enough to overcome the further east surface low.

Some cool anatomy of that band from 6z NAM 5-7am:

6z_Nam_3k_vertical_cross_section_frontogenesis_omega.jpg.070fb440e1b3f43c5caadb59d33b36c8.jpg

600-800_Frontogenesis_6z_NAM_12z.thumb.jpg.167b7603ba561032161230713a6d8b40.jpg

well, looks like the NAM is useful from 6 hours out.

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1 minute ago, eduggs said:

None of the reporting stations in CT or EMA have recorded big liquid equivalent numbers. Maybe they underreport, I don't know. But at least in the NYC area, spotter reports and NWS measurements are showing 15:1 to 20:1 ratios.

Yeah I saw a report in Norwood (in the mega band) and 20:1 ratios with over a foot of snow was reported there. I’m not entirely sure how accurate it is, but I did see several reports saying ratios in that 20:1 range. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

When the Euro had me at 3.5”, and I got 9+, that’s a model bust.  No matter which way you slice it. 

The Euro doesn't forecast snow. I forecasts liquid equivalent precipitation. Last night's Euro had about .38" for Southington, CT.

Hartford reported 0.34" and New Haven reported 0.31". That seems low, but that's what their station data shows. Do you know how much melted liquid precipitation you received there?

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7 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yeah I saw a report in Norwood (in the mega band) and 20:1 ratios with over a foot of snow was reported there. I’m not entirely sure how accurate it is, but I did see several reports saying ratios in that 20:1 range. 

Exactly my friend. When LE sample are reported, I have seen errors where other reports eventually get corrected.

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8 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The Euro doesn't forecast snow. I forecasts liquid equivalent precipitation. Last night's Euro had about .38" for Southington, CT.

Hartford reported 0.34" and New Haven reported 0.31". That seems low, but that's what their station data shows. Do you know how much melted liquid precipitation you received there?

There’s a couple of Southington cocorahs obs this morning. One was 7.0”/0.45” at 7am and another was 8.5” at 8am (no w.e.). Models tend to underestimate the QPF under mesobands (my frequent experience). 

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17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

What do you have? I just went out to shovel a path to the girls and I felt like death after attempting that. I’m at 3.9”.

It’s been snowing Steadley although not as heavy since I found 3.5 so this is a pure estimate that I am probably just over 4 inches maybe 4 1/4?It’s been snowing Steadley although not as heavy since I found 3.5 so this is a pure estimate that I am probably just over 4 inches maybe 4 1/4?

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28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

When the Euro had me at 3.5”, and I got 9+, that’s a model bust.  No matter which way you slice it. 

That’s Clown maps ftl though. Back in the old days there was more to it. I think models overall did a good job inside D3 indicating the features at play and the subtle trends nw along with the banding signal. Too often (myself included), we use qpf or clowns to paint a picture while being thrown off by all the models that run 24x per day. There is way too much noise these-days. Less is better.
 

I’m still learning how to interpret soundings and fronto. I wish we could do a gtg but instead of listening to everyone’s drunken snow stories…it could be scooter, will, and others using a white board teaching us some met stuff. Eat, smoke, drink, and learn…

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