PhineasC Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Lightening up now. We will see if it restarts once the winds shift out of the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, Greg said: Not totally accurate. the ratios were more like 12-13-1 ratios. If you were luckey to be in the narrow Mega band then, 15-1 ratios were probably closer to the truth there. 20-1 ratio would be a little too high of an estimate. None of the reporting stations in CT or EMA have recorded big liquid equivalent numbers. Maybe they underreport, I don't know. But at least in the NYC area, spotter reports and NWS measurements are showing 15:1 to 20:1 ratios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, eduggs said: It's a popular hobby to shit on the models. I'm just trying to counter that with factual observations. A positive snowfall bust does not necessarily mean a model bust. When the Euro had me at 3.5”, and I got 9+, that’s a model bust. No matter which way you slice it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 minute ago, wxsniss said: You and others nailed the fronto signals. We were also posting soundings with great crosshair / snowgrowth potential. But the dual low issue and definite (and ultimately correct) trends to emphasize the easternmost surface low, along with the new downtrends on RAP/HRRR, were not easy to ignore. I think only after we were seeing the strong radar returns off NJ entering LI that I posted ~10pm was there some evidence the s/w was enough to overcome the further east surface low. Some cool anatomy of that band from 6z NAM 5-7am: well, looks like the NAM is useful from 6 hours out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Not ready to stop up here yet. Moderate 1/2 mile good growth What do you have? I just went out to shovel a path to the girls and I felt like death after attempting that. I’m at 3.9”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 minute ago, eduggs said: None of the reporting stations in CT or EMA have recorded big liquid equivalent numbers. Maybe they underreport, I don't know. But at least in the NYC area, spotter reports and NWS measurements are showing 15:1 to 20:1 ratios. Yeah I saw a report in Norwood (in the mega band) and 20:1 ratios with over a foot of snow was reported there. I’m not entirely sure how accurate it is, but I did see several reports saying ratios in that 20:1 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: When the Euro had me at 3.5”, and I got 9+, that’s a model bust. No matter which way you slice it. The Euro doesn't forecast snow. I forecasts liquid equivalent precipitation. Last night's Euro had about .38" for Southington, CT. Hartford reported 0.34" and New Haven reported 0.31". That seems low, but that's what their station data shows. Do you know how much melted liquid precipitation you received there? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Final total here in West Somerville is 8.3”. First of hopefully many snowstorms for me in New England! Congrats to everyone on an overperformer. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 7 minutes ago, George001 said: Yeah I saw a report in Norwood (in the mega band) and 20:1 ratios with over a foot of snow was reported there. I’m not entirely sure how accurate it is, but I did see several reports saying ratios in that 20:1 range. Exactly my friend. When LE sample are reported, I have seen errors where other reports eventually get corrected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 2" New. 11.8". 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 53 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Ryobi? Yes. Gonna cave and get a bigger that requires less effort from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Just now, weathafella said: Yes. Gonna cave and get a bigger that requires less effort from me. Even a single stage would be much easier if it has a paddle that makes contact with the ground and pulls it along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 8 minutes ago, eduggs said: The Euro doesn't forecast snow. I forecasts liquid equivalent precipitation. Last night's Euro had about .38" for Southington, CT. Hartford reported 0.34" and New Haven reported 0.31". That seems low, but that's what their station data shows. Do you know how much melted liquid precipitation you received there? There’s a couple of Southington cocorahs obs this morning. One was 7.0”/0.45” at 7am and another was 8.5” at 8am (no w.e.). Models tend to underestimate the QPF under mesobands (my frequent experience). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 17 minutes ago, dendrite said: What do you have? I just went out to shovel a path to the girls and I felt like death after attempting that. I’m at 3.9”. It’s been snowing Steadley although not as heavy since I found 3.5 so this is a pure estimate that I am probably just over 4 inches maybe 4 1/4?It’s been snowing Steadley although not as heavy since I found 3.5 so this is a pure estimate that I am probably just over 4 inches maybe 4 1/4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Positive busts are nice even if you only get 4 or 5 inches, especially on top of an existing pack 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 You can definitely see on the radar how the snow is trying desperately to hang back in E MA for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 13 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said: Final total here in West Somerville is 8.3”. First of hopefully many snowstorms for me in New England! Congrats to everyone on an overperformer. No way, I just moved away from West Somerville! Where are you at, generally? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Looks like 7-8” here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 18 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said: Final total here in West Somerville is 8.3”. First of hopefully many snowstorms for me in New England! Congrats to everyone on an overperformer. Everyone didn't get an overperformer...but to those that did, congrats 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Driveway cleared. Dog walked. Beautiful with the sun on the snow now. Compacting FAST under the sun. Took a few measurements around the yard earlier… 8.9” average is my final.. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Looks like 7-8” here So you caught up to forecast totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 42 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Dude...10 ain't nothing to sneeze at. Everyone was begging for a 2-4" event and suddenly people are disappointed they got 10" just because someone had 13-14" 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Everyone was begging for a 2-4" event and suddenly people are disappointed they got 10" just because someone had 13-14" Person. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Got me a sexy inch near Albany. Still pretty nice looking. Glad you guy’s over performed to the East. Over performers are the best!! . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Just now, snowgeek said: Got me a sexy inch near Albany. Still pretty nice looking. Glad you guy’s over performed to the East. Overt performers are the best!! . Hopefully it’s our turn next storm. The local ski areas desperately need snow. (Berkshire East, Mt Snow, Stratton) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: When the Euro had me at 3.5”, and I got 9+, that’s a model bust. No matter which way you slice it. That’s Clown maps ftl though. Back in the old days there was more to it. I think models overall did a good job inside D3 indicating the features at play and the subtle trends nw along with the banding signal. Too often (myself included), we use qpf or clowns to paint a picture while being thrown off by all the models that run 24x per day. There is way too much noise these-days. Less is better. I’m still learning how to interpret soundings and fronto. I wish we could do a gtg but instead of listening to everyone’s drunken snow stories…it could be scooter, will, and others using a white board teaching us some met stuff. Eat, smoke, drink, and learn… 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 23 minutes ago, weathafella said: Yes. Gonna cave and get a bigger that requires less effort from me. Nice. I’m all about battery operated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 10 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Person. Right. One or maybe two. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Images from my 2.5 hour walk this morning. And finally... 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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