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Jan 7 Two-Headed Coastal Obs


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10 minutes ago, BrianW said:

From SW CT. I think Norwalk. 

 

Not supposed to measure and clear every hour. This looks suspicious because of the water equiv on an hourly basis (unless this person is using a heated rain gauge). A heated rain tipper will underestimate the w.e. as well. Just throwing that out there.

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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not supposed to measure and clear every hour. This looks suspicious because of the water equiv on an hourly basis (unless this person is using a heated rain gauge). A heated rain tipper will underestimate the w.e. as well. Just throwing that out there.

very sus....also the rounded off #'s  1.0" 1.5" 3" etc.

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10".  And like December 2019, I'm just a John Daly solid drive on the 18th from the coveted foot.  

 

This is now the 4th Storm in the past 3 Seasons where I got Under a Foot when everyone around me got a Foot-15", OR I got 12" when everyone around me got 15"-20".  This is just a losing spot.  It Used to be a Magic spot from February 2003-2011 (and some few times after, specifically my Only Jack in March 2019) Where the NWS Literally would NOT Believe my Snow Totals.  Now I don't even have to report because the towns next to me have 2" more so it's worthless.  ALSO Miss time on TV as I know the RI Mets.  But I'm not going to Lie and inflate the total to get on air.  

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2 hours ago, TheSnowman said:

I’m not at All Trying to Jack Jerry, but when I wake up at 5”, and Everyone who’s East of Me where the storm started AFTER me has 8”, and Foxboro who’s 12 minutes from me in the Same Line of the band has 10” when I have 6”??  That’s absurd.  
 

And TO that, I’m in Foxboro right now.  They have 9.5”.  The “10 Inches at 7am” AS I said was complete BS.  They would have 13” by now if so.  They’ve got the same as NE RI.  
 

Getting a Foot to me is a Big big deal.  And I keep missing out on So many storms where those around me get 12”.  Starting with March 2017 when I Spent $700 and Flew home early from the Netherlands for 9” of glop.  

Did you ever consider switching instruments to like say, A Violin?

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2 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

10".  And like December 2019, I'm just a John Daly solid drive on the 18th from the coveted foot.  

 

This is now the 4th Storm in the past 3 Seasons where I got Under a Foot when everyone around me got a Foot-15", OR I got 12" when everyone around me got 15"-20".  This is just a losing spot.  It Used to be a Magic spot from February 2003-2011 (and some few times after, specifically my Only Jack in March 2019) Where the NWS Literally would NOT Believe my Snow Totals.  Now I don't even have to report because the towns next to me have 2" more so it's worthless.  ALSO Miss time on TV as I know the RI Mets.  But I'm not going to Lie and inflate the total to get on air.  

Time to move to Marquette.

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9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not supposed to measure and clear every hour. This looks suspicious because of the water equiv on an hourly basis (unless this person is using a heated rain gauge). A heated rain tipper will underestimate the w.e. as well. Just throwing that out there.

Both the snow total and liquid equivalent match other reports from the area. If true, liquid ended up very close to modeled QPF consensus... maybe even a touch lower. The intense bands are key to big accumulations.

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8 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

10".  And like December 2019, I'm just a John Daly solid drive on the 18th from the coveted foot.  

 

This is now the 4th Storm in the past 3 Seasons where I got Under a Foot when everyone around me got a Foot-15", OR I got 12" when everyone around me got 15"-20".  This is just a losing spot.  It Used to be a Magic spot from February 2003-2011 (and some few times after, specifically my Only Jack in March 2019) Where the NWS Literally would NOT Believe my Snow Totals.  Now I don't even have to report because the towns next to me have 2" more so it's worthless.  ALSO Miss time on TV as I know the RI Mets.  But I'm not going to Lie and inflate the total to get on air.  

Dude...10 ain't nothing to sneeze at.

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8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What a great snow storm for S CT to  NE CT to NW RI to BOS S burbs. That band was magic 

Solid storm in Bedford Mass - was def not staying in Nashua for this one 

George - Geezus Christ .. good work 

someone slap me 

Looks like snow ratios were big in this storm, the QPF total was what the higher end of what guidance had (like eduggs said above) but the ratios were like 20:1 instead of 10:1, so those 10:1 snow maps ended up being an epic fail. 

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4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Both the snow total and liquid equivalent match other reports from the area. If true, liquid ended up very close to modeled QPF consensus... maybe even a touch lower. The intense bands are key to big accumulations.

Trust me I know about meso bands. lol

The measuring method just looks suspect. That’s all I’m saying.

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Trust me I know about meso bands. lol

The measuring method just looks suspect. That’s all I’m saying.

Might be. No argument there. But the end result looks reasonable.

There would have been a lot of disappointed weenies in NYC and CT if this storm had come in with standard 10:1 ratios.

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1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

Just measured for first time.  12".  But there may have been some compaction since I made no interim measurements.  Still very light snow but just about over. 

I’m going with 11.7 as my final.   Snow almost done.....wonderful over producer!

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8 minutes ago, George001 said:

Looks like snow ratios were big in this storm, the QPF total was what the higher end of what guidance had (like eduggs said above) but the ratios were like 20:1 instead of 10:1, so those 10:1 snow maps ended up being an epic fail. 

Not totally accurate. Most ratios were more like 12-13-1 ratios. If you were lucky to be in the narrow Mega band then, 15-1 ratios were probably closer to the truth there. The 20-1 ratio would be a little too high of an estimate.

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Just now, eduggs said:

It's a popular hobby to shit on the models. I'm just trying to counter that with factual observations. A positive snowfall bust does not necessarily mean a model bust.

I agree with that statement. Many of them don't even have a snow algo built in.

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16 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

10".  And like December 2019, I'm just a John Daly solid drive on the 18th from the coveted foot.  

 

This is now the 4th Storm in the past 3 Seasons where I got Under a Foot when everyone around me got a Foot-15", OR I got 12" when everyone around me got 15"-20".  This is just a losing spot.  It Used to be a Magic spot from February 2003-2011 (and some few times after, specifically my Only Jack in March 2019) Where the NWS Literally would NOT Believe my Snow Totals.  Now I don't even have to report because the towns next to me have 2" more so it's worthless.  ALSO Miss time on TV as I know the RI Mets.  But I'm not going to Lie and inflate the total to get on air.  

Stop making RI look bad lol. Be happy with the 10".  It's not a widespread 12" amount.  Cumberland/Woonsocket is almost always in the higher end for RI.

We barely have 6" down here and I'm only 22 miles away.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Looking back, the fronto signals were there. I think I wound have been more aggressive, but what about the dual low? Would it be these big bands that we saw, or would it be more strung out and not as consistent? Those were the questions I had. Other than that, signs were there. It looked like enough forcing from s/w was there to overcome it. 

You and others nailed the fronto signals. We were also posting soundings with great crosshair / snowgrowth potential.

But the dual low issue and definite (and ultimately correct) trends to emphasize the easternmost surface low, along with the new downtrends on RAP/HRRR, were not easy to ignore.

I think only after we were seeing the strong radar returns off NJ entering LI that I posted ~10pm was there some evidence the s/w was enough to overcome the further east surface low.

Some cool anatomy of that band from 6z NAM 5-7am:

6z_Nam_3k_vertical_cross_section_frontogenesis_omega.jpg.070fb440e1b3f43c5caadb59d33b36c8.jpg

600-800_Frontogenesis_6z_NAM_12z.thumb.jpg.167b7603ba561032161230713a6d8b40.jpg

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