40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 29.3/25 Overcast as we prepare to nowcast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Overcast is lowering. Idiots put salt on all paved surfaces on my walk tonight. Shoes ftl 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Off to bed for me. Feels like snow outside but just overcast at the moment. Latest meso analysis below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 4z RAP stopped the bleeding This stuff off NJ coast is ~1-2 hours earlier than shown on NAM... any earlier or more robust western low development helps us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 14 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Off to bed for me. Feels like snow outside but just overcast at the moment. Latest meso analysis below: Next 3 hours are pivotal resolving this 2-headed coastal 0z 12k/3k NAM actually does not have the west head In next 2-3 hours, HRRR has west head decay, east head dominates and drives the rest of the show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 But the convection…… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Next 3 hours are pivotal resolving this 2-headed coastal 0z 12k/3k NAM actually does not have the west head In next 2-3 hours, HRRR has west head decay, east head dominates and drives the rest of the show Thats very interesting how there were three lows earlier and now there are only 2, looks like one of the lows to the east absorbed the other one. I could be wrong but I don’t think it’s a coincidence that just after what appears to be a low absorption event the radar starts blowing up off the NJ coast. I read that this convection off the NJ coast is occurring a couple hours earlier than modeled by the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spaizzo Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 First flakes lightly coming down now in Ansonia 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Heavy rain reported in SBY, Salisbury, MD, just south of Delaware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Observations (next 2hrs) in this thread will telltale the outcome. A nowcast of nowcasts. I don't like the meso models for double digit accumulations. The slide-east for dynamics is a redflag, we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Took a bit of a nap earlier but now see that the latest runs of the rap and hrrr have started to come back west. We’ll see how this progresses the next 2-3 hours but this is go time now. The 04z hrrr has the eastern low becoming dominant around 7z. Previous runs already had it happening by 05z or 06z so I’d say that is a good sign. I also like what I see on radar. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Took a bit of a nap earlier but now see that the latest runs of the rap and hrrr have started to come back west. We’ll see how this progresses the next 2-3 hours but this is go time now. The 04z hrrr has the eastern low becoming dominant around 7z. Previous runs already had it happening by 05z or 06z so I’d say that is a good sign. I also like what I see on radar. Good to have you back, Will Yeah 4z RAP and HRRR runs stopped the bleeding, and associated with later west --> east SLP handoff. I posted the robust radar returns off NJ above. I think that's a sign of earlier/better west SLP development, but hard to say it's kind of in between the 2 low centers. In any case, it's appearing 1-2 hours earlier than progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 This thing is flying regardless of track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 0z vs. 18z/12z Euro continues theme of slightly faster west -> east low transfer while being a bit more robust for eastern SNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, wxsniss said: 0z vs. 18z/12z Euro continues theme of slightly faster west -> east low transfer while being a bit more robust for eastern SNE Yeah it didn’t look quite as good as 18z though it was really close. Splitting hairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, PhineasC said: This thing is flying regardless of track. Ya, we going on several years of fast or progressive flow across the continent, I long for a, wound up, slow moving, Miller A. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWilly Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 It's a quick hitter and I don't anticipate many storms this winter living in North North Carolina with the climate shift. So staying up to track it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 53 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Next 3 hours are pivotal resolving this 2-headed coastal 0z 12k/3k NAM actually does not have the west head In next 2-3 hours, HRRR has west head decay, east head dominates and drives the rest of the show east SLP appears to be taking over on schedule: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Someone earlier was asking. What to use for latest obs: MesoWest Data (utah.edu) Change Network, Map and overlays. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Snowing here…coated up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Dry here, virga overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walthsnow Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Light snow started in Framingham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathergeekMD Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Just started getting some flakes in Madison CT. Light so far. 31F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 I must say, Radar looks quite nice upstream…we’ll see what happens? Snow and 29 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Had a light dusting earlier and now it has gone to moderate here. Radar is looking healthy and you can see where banding is going to setup. 29f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I must say, Radar looks quite nice upstream…we’ll see what happens? Snow and 29 degrees. Seems like you’re about to get into a pretty good band. It’s early right? So is this bonus snow or maybe the storm will be early in and early out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 I'm off to sleep, since snow will be falling soon. Can't imagine staying up or planning your life around this modest snow 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Mod boarderlihe heavy, great flakes size. Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Rap improved again. Gonna be interesting to see how this behave early tomorrow. The eastern low definitely seems to be the dominant one going forward but it has trended west on the short term guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 The deck is white….it’s not a thick layer…..let’s see how we do in the wake up hour….me thinks I need the bottle on the nightstand…..christs sakes 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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