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Jan 7 Two-Headed Coastal Obs


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14 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Off to bed for me.  Feels like snow outside but just overcast at the moment.  Latest meso analysis below:

 

image.gif.a1e460fa7ab0276d72f21e82156b1b03.gif

Next 3 hours are pivotal resolving this 2-headed coastal

0z 12k/3k NAM actually does not have the west head

In next 2-3 hours, HRRR has west head decay, east head dominates and drives the rest of the show

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5 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Next 3 hours are pivotal resolving this 2-headed coastal

0z 12k/3k NAM actually does not have the west head

In next 2-3 hours, HRRR has west head decay, east head dominates and drives the rest of the show

Thats very interesting how there were three lows earlier and now there are only 2, looks like one of the lows to the east absorbed the other one. I could be wrong but I don’t think it’s a coincidence that just after what appears to be a low absorption event the radar starts blowing up off the NJ coast. I read that this convection off the NJ coast is occurring a couple hours earlier than modeled by the NAM. 

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Took a bit of a nap earlier but now see that the latest runs of the rap and hrrr have started to come back west. We’ll see how this progresses the next 2-3 hours but this is go time now. 
 

The 04z hrrr has the eastern low becoming dominant around 7z. Previous runs already had it happening by 05z or 06z so I’d say that is a good sign. I also like what I see on radar. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Took a bit of a nap earlier but now see that the latest runs of the rap and hrrr have started to come back west. We’ll see how this progresses the next 2-3 hours but this is go time now. 
 

The 04z hrrr has the eastern low becoming dominant around 7z. Previous runs already had it happening by 05z or 06z so I’d say that is a good sign. I also like what I see on radar. 

Good to have you back, Will

Yeah 4z RAP and HRRR runs stopped the bleeding, and associated with later west --> east SLP handoff.

I posted the robust radar returns off NJ above. I think that's a sign of earlier/better west SLP development, but hard to say it's kind of in between the 2 low centers. In any case, it's appearing 1-2 hours earlier than progged.

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4 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

0z vs. 18z/12z Euro continues theme of slightly faster west -> east low transfer while being a bit more robust for eastern SNE

Yeah it didn’t look quite as good as 18z though it was really close. Splitting hairs. 

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53 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Next 3 hours are pivotal resolving this 2-headed coastal

0z 12k/3k NAM actually does not have the west head

In next 2-3 hours, HRRR has west head decay, east head dominates and drives the rest of the show

east SLP appears to be taking over on schedule:

Mesoanalysis_MSLP_06z.thumb.jpg.ee0a60cfff45b55b06813d272989eae3.jpg

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