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OBS and nowcast for a widespread 2-6" event significant impact event, mainly midnight-Noon Friday morning January 7, 2022


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8 minutes ago, uncle W said:

5.5" from 0.33" LE here...

This is an example of underperforming the model consensus QPF. But the favorable snow to liquid ratios made up for it. Locally, I'm not sure many places significantly overperformed the modeled QPF. It looks like the ratios were a little higher than expected in the heaviest bands.

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An official nws obs at 7:00am at LGA for 8.4 inches while it was still snowing pretty good... is quite the over performance no matter how you cut it. 3-5 inch was the overwhelming prediction on just about every outlet. Seems like while we had a pretty strong consensus of .4-.5 liquid equivalent precipitation, but everybody has been burned too much by estimating ratios in the past, even if this storm screamed higher ratio snows. If they had gone with higher ratio snow idea we prob would have been in a WSW instead of a ww advisory for NYC and it would have been appropriate, because nearly 9 inches in a 7 hour period of snow is not advisory level stuff. 

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Just now, eduggs said:

If this had come in with the standard 10:1 ratios, a lot of people would probably be disappointed with the 2-5" snowfall regionwide.

We benefitted from part of the heavy fronto band that blasted CT and MA, which provided great snow growth. The VVs shown on some models greatly helped. Only limiting factors were the fast movement and the fact it was only starting to really get together at our area. 

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42 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The champs for our sub forum look to be Smithtown with 9.1” and Glen Cove with 9.3”. Numerous 8-9” reports from Port Jeff to LGA on the north shore. 

crazy- BDR up here reported 8.2 they are usually low on totals for some reason (not sure if they actually get that much less or it's poor measuring)

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8 hours ago, Intensewind002 said:

Yeah January 2016 was in a tier of it's own I ended up with somewhere between 24-30" in that one but it was nearly impossible to measure with all the drifting

I slept from around 11 to about 3, watched it snow from 3 to 6 then fell back asleep at 6 and woke up at 9 to breaks of sun lol.

Just our typical snow event.

 

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

The champs for our sub forum look to be Smithtown with 9.1” and Glen Cove with 9.3”. Numerous 8-9” reports from Port Jeff to LGA on the north shore. 

How did they get so much?  Sound effect snow?

It started late here and ended early, it really was a 6 hour snowstorm here.  Do you have any totals for this area?  I got about 6" here

 

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56 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

That LGA total needs to be updated, 8.4" at 1 PM and it was still snowing then.  That 5.5" figure at JFK also needs to be updated for the same reason.....Lido Beach's trained spotter reported 7.5" 

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28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How did they get so much?  Sound effect snow?

It started late here and ended early, it really was a 6 hour snowstorm here.  Do you have any totals for this area?  I got about 6" here

 

The NW and north central suffolk always seem to jackpot no matter if the forecast calls for more snow to the “west” or “east” banding almost always sets up here as well

I lived in smithtown for 20 years and we were always the bullseye 

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25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That LGA total needs to be updated, 8.4" at 1 PM and it was still snowing then.  That 5.5" figure at JFK also needs to be updated for the same reason.....Lido Beach's trained spotter reported 7.5" 

The Central Park total of 5.5 is at 7AM, logic says they surpassed at a minimum 6 inches?

Of course since they won't measure again until 1:00 PM anything that fell after 7:00 am will be treated as if it disappeared into another dimension.

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1 minute ago, justinj said:

The NW and north central suffolk always seem to jackpot no matter if the forecast calls for more snow to the “west” or “east” banding almost always sets up here as well

I lived in smithtown for 20 years and we were always the bullseye 

Has to be some sort of sound effect or sound enhanced impact.  This was the perfect example.  No chance of a changeover or any mixing so it can't be anything else.

The only times that the south shore, specifically the western part of the south shore has had the most snow is during super el nino HECS...... great examples are Feb 1983, Feb 2003 and Jan 2016.  Glad I got to experience a 30" + snowstorm here, it might never happen in my lifetime again.

 

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1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

The Central Park total of 5.5 is at 7AM, logic says they surpassed at a minimum 6 inches?

Of course since they won't measure again until 1:00 PM anything that fell after 7:00 am will be treated as if it disappeared into another dimension.

Is there a reason these people dont measure when the storm ends?  Dont they pay these guys enough?  NYC, LGA and JFK all have 7 am as their last measurement.

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7 minutes ago, justinj said:

The NW and north central suffolk always seem to jackpot no matter if the forecast calls for more snow to the “west” or “east” banding almost always sets up here as well

I lived in smithtown for 20 years and we were always the bullseye 

We were under a part of the heavy frontogenesis band that nailed CT and MA. HRRR/RAP finally picked up on it and got rid of the bogus subsidence area it had in CT as it was taking place. This really was a nowcast storm but some of the mesos did have a heavy band in this area for a few runs. 

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33 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

The Central Park total of 5.5 is at 7AM, logic says they surpassed at a minimum 6 inches?

Of course since they won't measure again until 1:00 PM anything that fell after 7:00 am will be treated as if it disappeared into another dimension.

NWS bumped Central Park a tab.

Preliminary Snow Totals - January 7, 2022

❄️LaGuardia: 9.7"
❄️Bridgeport: 8.4"
❄️Islip: 6.6"
❄️JFK: 6.2"
❄️Central Park: 5.8"
❄️Newark: 5.2"

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4 minutes ago, WeatherFox said:

NWS bumped Central Park a tab.

Preliminary Snow Totals - January 7, 2022

❄️LaGuardia: 9.7"
❄️Bridgeport: 8.4"
❄️Islip: 6.6"
❄️JFK: 6.2"
❄️Central Park: 5.8"
❄️Newark: 5.2"

lol good I guess they do measure end of storm totals but dont publish them until the full 6 hours is up.

Too bad NYC total didn't go to 6" though..... I guess we can round 5.8" to 6.0" and call this a warning level storm for the city especially with the totals in Queens.

 

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7 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

That LGA one seems fishy

 

No. I measured 9"-9.50" on my property in Whitestone. A few miles east of LGA.

There was a heavy band that touched northern Queens and extended through SWCT at around 4:00am. That band made the difference and it's why LGA and BDR jackpotted.

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39 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We were under a part of the heavy frontogenesis band that nailed CT and MA. HRRR/RAP finally picked up on it and got rid of the bogus subsidence area it had in CT as it was taking place. This really was a nowcast storm but some of the mesos did have a heavy band in this area for a few runs. 

The Hi RES RGEM (HRDPS?) had the band perfectly placed

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9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Sound enhanced, a similar thing happened in December 1995 when LGA had 14" and NYC had 8" and JFK had 7"  ISP had 12" in that one.

 

 

6 minutes ago, ag3 said:

 

No. I measured 9"-9.50" on my property in Whitestone. A few miles east of LGA.

There was a heavy band that touched northern Queens and extended through SWCT at around 4:00am. That band made the difference and it's why LGA and BDR jackpotted.

Ah ok I see. Thanks for letting me know 

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