OBS and nowcast for a widespread 2-6" event significant impact event, mainly midnight-Noon Friday morning January 7, 2022

[wdrag]

Adding some baseline graphics from 12z-21z/6 guidance that tries to frame a realistic outcome of this event. 

Snow begins ne PA/extreme nw NJ 10PM-midnight and overspreads all of our area by 230 AM.  Bands of heavy snow with around 1"/hour rates should develop in central and northern NJ between 3 and 4AM and become dominant across LI into southern CT between 5 and 7AM. It ends from southwest to northeast between 8AM and Noon across our NYC subforum. Scattered gusty flurries or brief snow showers could continue into late Friday due to steep and still somewhat moist lapse rates associated with the short wave passage.  

Cleanup should be swift shortly after the snow ends. 

An 850 MB low will try to get going south of Long Island near sunrise Friday which should permit the overall heavier snowfall from this intensifying coastal low to occur in  New England, possibly back to eastern LI. 

High impact event for the morning commute--- should result in delays/cancellations of some morning activities.  IF you have to travel, allow plenty of extra time. 

1) NWS 5PM collaborated snowfall graphic.

2) NWS 5PM collaborated Storm Severity Index.

3) SPC HREF ensemble forecast snowfall (12z/6)

4) 18z/6 NAM Banding potential--see black areas for generating bands of heavy snow near 4AM

5) 18z/6 NAM Banding potential--see black areas for generating bands of heavy snow near 7AM

6) NWS 21z/6 ensemble chance of 2+" of snow.

7 NWS 21z/6 ensemble chance of 6+" of snow.

Note the ensembles are not quite so bullish on 6" amounts.   Do enjoy whatever we get... this should be fun for a little while. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Tatamy]

Snow has reached the Reading, PA area.  Visibility looks to drop quickly with onset.

[Rmine1]

So 2-4” for most outside of SE Ma, Ct?

[MJO812]

Nam

 

General 4-6 inches for NYC. Watch out for the banding. Where ever that sets up the amounts will be higher.

[jm1220]

Really down to nowcasting and seeing how our system develops vs the convection well offshore that will rob from it to some degree. The NAM/mesos/RAP/HRRR seem divided over how well it develops for us overnight and how much precip we get. Actually they seem to favor something of a subsidence area over CT and a heavier area over coastal NJ at this point. 3-6"/4-7" seems like the best range for us.

[Tatamy]

Snow has gotten underway here.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Rmine1 said:

So 2-4” for most outside of SE Ma, Ct?

Looks more like 4-6

[bobjohnsonforthehall]

First flakes falling in Flemington

[BlizzLuv]

33 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Snow has gotten underway here.

Need to go to bed but tempted to set the alarm for 2am to check out the windows

[jm1220]

RGEM looks good, maybe a slight cut back from 18z. It has that heavy area again over Ocean and Monmouth. They might do quite well. 

[Snowlover11]

33F and the smell of snow! 

[BlizzLuv]

Flakes starting to fall here.

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, BlizzLuv said:

Flakes starting to fall here.

 

So not going to bed I'm guessing?

 

[BlizzLuv]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

So not going to bed I'm guessing?

 

LOL...had to come back down to look. Too exciting...first real snow of the season here!

[CIK62]

Been stuck at 36 for hours.       Seems some evaporational cooling is going to be needed at the surface---and this could cut totals, I suppose.

At any rate here is the National Blend of Models interpretation:

 

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Been stuck at 36 for hours.       Seems some evaporational cooling is going to be needed at the surface---and this could cut totals, I suppose.

At any rate here is the National Blend of Models interpretation:

 

That matches the advisory totals very well.

Overall should be a nice minor event that'll make it feel like winter for once.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

That matches the advisory totals very well.

Overall should be a nice minor event that'll make it feel like winter for once.

4-6 is a nice moderate event

 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Been stuck at 36 for hours.       Seems some evaporational cooling is going to be needed at the surface---and this could cut totals, I suppose.

At any rate here is the National Blend of Models interpretation:

 

Rare that although this will be a moderate event it'll be shared by so many. In this day and age we get all or nothing storms. Very nice. Hopefully that transition area in W NJ isn't too bad. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Rare that although this will be a moderate event it'll be shared by so many. In this day and age we get all or nothing storms. Very nice. Hopefully that transition area in W NJ isn't too bad. 

Looks like 4" even in the Poconos

[Albedoman]

snowing moderately to heavy here in the Lehigh Valley   an inch on the ground now

 

 

[Rmine1]

Starting well ahead of schedule? 

[the_other_guy]

3 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Starting well ahead of schedule? 

A lot of it is virga.

Radar is filled in over me, not a flake yet

[Rmine1]

Just now, jfklganyc said:

A lot of it is virga.

Radar is filled in over me, not a flake yet

Never like early or late starters 

[Rmine1]

Should be gone by 8am

[SRRTA22]

Yeah , currently in hoboken and no flakes yet. 

[mannynyc]

Nothing in Manhattan yet

[tek1972]

The precip field was more robust on the west side earlier. You can now see it degrading and transferring some energy towards the coast. At least to my untrained eye.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[ForestHillWx]

Coating on all surfaces; moderate snow continues. Cheers all. 

[MikeS]

Starting to snow here in Wayne. 

[Rmine1]

Super early arrival. Now thinking gone by daylight for most with lighter accum. Good for most