Kevin Reilly Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 16 minutes ago, RedSky said: DT draws his lines directly over my head on most maps and I am always left guessing GFS is the only guidance that doesn't give SEPA the subsidence finger, a true friend in hard times The only problem the GFS is not to be trusted it never usually nails down the finer details of subsidence like the other higher resolution models. The GFS just smooths everything out to give everyone a general 4-5" I do not see that happening. My bar is 2-3" most areas with someone getting ripped off in SE pa and only getting 1 to maybe 2". 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 45 minutes ago, The Iceman said: For our area, probably sometime around 2 am. I think we'll see flakes/light stuff before then but the "heaviest" between 2/3am to 5am then winds down. Pretty much once we see the somewhat solid rates we'll also see the backend in the distance... 35F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 CMC seems to show the same initial "snow hole" before speeding the thing along to give what appears to be some back end thumping as the storm bombs out on its way to NE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Will be interesting to see what Mt Holly does this evening wrt totals. I'm thinking they shift the 4-6" zone E of 95 and 95 N and W shift to the 3-4" zone. It's really hard for guidance to nail down exact areas where the banding will set up though and in my experience it usually is further N and W than guidance indicates. Different system completely but remember last feb when the deform band looked like it would set up right on 95 from guidance even 12 hours out and it ended up in the NW burbs, something similar could end up happening here. Will be a fun one to watch unfold. I'm probably going to bed after the Flyers game and waking up at 2 am to watch it come in. Who knows, this could be the biggest event of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Lol...talk about screw job...good old UKIE 3 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 6 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Lol...talk about screw job...good old UKIE They all seem to be reflecting some variation of the hole which seems to suggest some kind of Miller B (or hybrid Miller B ) and we all know how that goes - 2 rounds where everything "stops" after round 1 and then it jumps to the coast and transfers to a new low and ramps up for round 2. And where it reforms will establish the screw zone before the wrap-around bands finally come into play as it pulls away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 UKMET looks awful. it will be interesting to see if/where the snow hole will occur. Putting expectations at 1-1.5" imby. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 ECM has the biggest longest middle finger of the 12z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 After seeing the 12z runs, looks like 2" would be the high end imby. Still, a dusting from the Middle Finger Storm beats the 18 snow pellets in my flowerbed from the Festivus Miracle. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, JTA66 said: After seeing the 12z runs, looks like 2" would be the high end imby. Still, a dusting from the Middle Finger Storm beats the 18 snow pellets in my flowerbed from the Festivus Miracle. And like that the early January 2022 storm got it's name 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: And like that the early January 2022 storm got it's name Wiggum started it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 6 minutes ago, RedSky said: And like that the early January 2022 storm got it's name 18z will save us 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Been thinking 2-4 for past couple of days. NWS going with 4-6 which won't happen but its better to tell people too much then too little imho -RSC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I think we just got NAM'd: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 All of SJ except for the Cape upgraded to a WSW. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 hour ago, JTA66 said: Wiggum started it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 DT last call map up he did some snipping off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 WSW for Jersey - Quote Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 316 PM EST Thu Jan 6 2022 NJZ013-014-016>022-027-070930- /O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.220107T0300Z-220107T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0002.220107T0300Z-220107T1500Z/ Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Salem-Gloucester-Camden- Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic- Southeastern Burlington- Including the cities of Freehold, Sandy Hook, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Jackson, Millville, Hammonton, and Wharton State Forest 316 PM EST Thu Jan 6 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow, heavy at times. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central and southern New Jersey. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates may exceed 1 inch per hour rates at times late tonight. The heaviest snow is expected to wind down west to east around sunrise Friday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ And WWA for PA & DE - Quote Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 316 PM EST Thu Jan 6 2022 DEZ001-002-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ009-010-012-015-PAZ070-071- 101>106-070930- /O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.220107T0300Z-220107T1500Z/ New Castle-Kent-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Hunterdon- Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester- Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks- Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Chestertown, Centreville, Easton, Denton, Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Trenton, Media, Philadelphia, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown, Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville, and Doylestown 316 PM EST Thu Jan 6 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern and northwest New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and central and northern Delaware. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates may briefly approach 1 inch per hour rates late tonight. The heaviest snow will down west to east around sunrise Friday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 34F, dp 18 here. Almost feels like snow outside! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 6 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: 34F, dp 18 here. Almost feels like snow outside! Definitely looked like a snow sky on my way home from work around 4pm. Should be a nice little event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 6 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: 34F, dp 18 here. Almost feels like snow outside! Maybe because there are some returns streaming up this way from the SW. I don't know if any of it is reaching the ground but Mike would be the best judge of that since a blob is sitting over that area. 1 minute ago, CoolHandMike said: Definitely looked like a snow sky on my way home from work around 4pm. Should be a nice little event. is it virga or the real thing yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 5 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Maybe because there are some returns streaming up this way from the SW. I don't know if any of it is reaching the ground but Mike would be the best judge of that since a blob is sitting over that area. is it virga or the real thing yet? Virga as of yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 For those that have missed this the WXSIM with 10:1 and 0.46" of w.e. predicts 2.5" to 4.5" of snow with it's actual snow depth forecast of 4.1" - that said if we actually did get 0.46" of liquid...we will see near 6" of snow here in NW Chesco. Tonight: Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. Patchy light fog after midnight. A slight chance of snow in the evening, then snow likely after midnight. Low 25. Wind chill ranging from 19 to 31. Wind north near calm in the evening, becoming 4 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between a quarter and half an inch. Snow accumulation 2 to 4 inches. Friday: Mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming mostly sunny in the afternoon. Patchy light fog in the morning. A chance of snow. High 30. Wind chill around 18. Wind northwest around 8 mph, gusting to 18 mph, in the morning, becoming 11 mph, gusting to 21 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about half an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 I should point out that Bernie Rayno thinks the models are missing what he calls "sneaky snow" to the N and W of Philly....we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 13 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said: Virga as of yet. Okay. It looks to be thumping down in central/southwestern WV and eastern KY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Just got in from an RSC walk. I sense the front coming through but it is moderate. 2-4 still. -RSC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 42 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Maybe because there are some returns streaming up this way from the SW. I don't know if any of it is reaching the ground but Mike would be the best judge of that since a blob is sitting over that area. is it virga or the real thing yet? Nothing falling in Berks yet, I’m 10 miles NW of reading 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 It's our first real snow of the season, and my wife is kinda losing it. She's worried about the roads tomorrow afternoon, and just now she asked me if the snowblower was working and if I wanted to move it to the garage tonight. I told her it's not a bread and milk type of snow and sent her this. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 is it virga or the real thing yet?Another reason I like radar scope is they have those live reports of snow falling indicated by the snow flakes. I'm 5 minutes N of Reading and nothing yet. Judging by those snow reports we are an hour or so away. Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Media Delaware County Cloudy 32 humidity 52% dewpoint 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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