KamuSnow Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: btw concord township is in garnet valley no? you might not be that far from me hmm.... probably you and me suffer the same fate in regards to snowstorms whatever it may be. Sounds like. I know what you mean but I try to be an optimist, lol. The sleet/rain line moving north in certain storms is painful. This one shouldn't have that issue though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 5 minutes ago, RedSky said: It's a tad premature for that 6-12 storm lol What kinda sucks is we'll have cold air around next week and no potential storms. Hell, Tues highs in the 20s... 33F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: What kinda sucks is we'll have cold air around next week and no potential storms. Hell, Tues highs in the 20s... 33F I have a good feeling about late tomorrow storm. I think we get over 5 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: What kinda sucks is we'll have cold air around next week and no potential storms. Hell, Tues highs in the 20s... 33F We have cold air and a potential storm in just over 24hrs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 7 minutes ago, RedSky said: We have cold air and a potential storm in just over 24hrs.. Of course. I'm looking ahead to your guaranteed stone cold lock 6"-12" storm which you promised... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: Of course. I'm looking ahead to your guaranteed stone cold lock 6"-12" storm which you promised... Alright Eskin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 8 minutes ago, RedSky said: Alright Eskin... Before Eskin in my gambling days (25+ yrs ago) that was the "phrase" professional gamblers who gave out picks would say. Eskin took it from them... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Light snow arriving between 9PM and midnight Thursday. Continues overnight, maybe a heavier burst especially S and E of the Delaware River. 1-3" generally across SE PA. Maybe a stripe of 2-5" near the Delaware River across into S NJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 It was an exciting GFS run unfortunately it only has the 3k NAM on its side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Light snow arriving between 9PM and midnight Thursday. Continues overnight, maybe a heavier burst especially S and E of the Delaware River. 1-3" generally across SE PA. Maybe a stripe of 2-5" near the Delaware River across into S NJ. Sounds reasonable. Just about all TV outlets going w/ 2-4" for the general area but this thing is moving fast and unless you get under a burst I see just light to mod snow at times. Probably out of here by 6-7am if not earlier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Looking good for 2-4 “ region wide with a lolli of 6” somewhere probably between 95 and the coast. Should be ratio’s higher than 10:1 based on the couple soundings I’ve looked at. All in all should be a nice little event to get on the board for those stuck at a trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Mt. Holly calling for 3 - 5” on my point and click. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Mt holly seems bullish, wonder if Philly and some areas in NJ see winter storm warnings later based on this map as I believe criteria is 4”. the 1/10 higher end forecast seems to indicate lollis up to 8” 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 6z GFS ups the ante 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nsof Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, The Iceman said: Mt holly seems bullish, wonder if Philly and some areas in NJ see winter storm warnings later based on this map as I believe criteria is 4”. They pointed at some confidence that there will be mesoscale banding in CNJ or coastal region that gets a solid 6 inches. Worry that if that happens it causes Philly Metro/west of I95 to only get 1-2, similar to last storm. Hope that band doesn't materialize and we just get a region wide ~4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 My bar is set at 1-2”, so if that Mt Holly map comes close to verifying , I’ll be more than happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, JTA66 said: My bar is set at 1-2”, so if that Mt Holly map comes close to verifying , I’ll be more than happy. Ditto. Just want to get on the board tonight. Anything over say an inch accumulation is a bonus win up here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 There going to be an annoying snow hole somewhere in E PA from the coastal taking over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: There going to be an annoying snow hole somewhere in E PA from the coastal taking over. Also wonder if with that hole or near that hole there may be a bit of sleet or freezing drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: There going to be an annoying snow hole somewhere in E PA from the coastal taking over. It's been showing up on different runs....quite annoying if you fall under it. 33F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nsof Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: It's been showing up on different runs....quite annoying if you fall under it. 33F Don't take that verbatim its probably a feedback error from that purple band to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, nsof said: Don't take that verbatim its probably a feedback error from that purple band to the west Sometimes there's not a band to the west and it's not in the same location each time but in general eastern PA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 The snow(less) middle finger. Someone always falls under it in these situations where a weak low jumps off the coast and you fall in a subsidence zone between the weak primary as it jumps off the coast. Sucks to be in the bullseye of it but it is what it is. Not the greatest start to 12z for extreme SE PA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 RGEM had that same middle finger at 6z, let's see if 12z follows. Anyway, my street has been brined. Exciting times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 DT will be my new best friend if this happens... 34F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 GFS, while not as robust as 6z, still honking for 3-5" for most in SE PA into NJ. I like my call from earlier still, 2-4" region wide with lolli's of 6" wherever the best banding sets up. Won't be surprised if someone gets stuck in the screw zone though between the decaying shortwave and where the coastal takes over and only gets an inch. Think that should be a fairly narrow area though(knowing my luck that will run right along the delaware river though ) Looks like it will basically be a 6 hour storm for most with a hour or two of heavy snow between 09z-12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 15 minutes ago, The Iceman said: GFS, while not as robust as 6z, still honking for 3-5" for most in SE PA into NJ. I like my call from earlier still, 2-4" region wide with lolli's of 6" wherever the best banding sets up. Won't be surprised if someone gets stuck in the screw zone though between the decaying shortwave and where the coastal takes over and only gets an inch. Think that should be a fairly narrow area though(knowing my luck that will run right along the delaware river though ) Looks like it will basically be a 6 hour storm for most with a hour or two of heavy snow between 09z-12z. Whats the predicted start time for this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, yankeex777 said: Whats the predicted start time for this one? For our area, probably sometime around 2 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 33 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: DT will be my new best friend if this happens... 34F I am skeptical of this. I am sure there will be an area of subsidence somewhere between NE Md, SE PA, along the Delaware River, SW NJ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 DT draws his lines directly over my head on most maps and I am always left guessing GFS is the only guidance that doesn't give SEPA the subsidence finger, a true friend in hard times Expectations set locally to 2" snow there is too much guidance showing a screw zone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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