SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: What, you had doubts that it would trend towards the new King? That’s two euro runs in a row trending wetter, let’s see if we can trend this into a 4-6 event for everyone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: You have a place near Canaan now right? Pretty good bet if you wake up there on Friday lol. Hey never thought of that! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Lock in the 0z Canadian 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 6z EPS was a good increase for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, yoda said: 6z EPS was a good increase for all define "all" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, leesburg 04 said: define "all" Sorry had to clear space for the attachment... added now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Re 6z EPS About 35 of the 50 individual members give DCA 2"+... around 13 or so give DCA warning criteria (around 5" or so) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Canadian has the anti-snow hole for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, osfan24 said: Canadian has the anti-snow hole for DC. Toss 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 People still posting kuchera models for the sole reason the totals are always higher I imagine. Love this site lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said: People still posting kuchera models for the sole reason the totals are always higher I imagine. Love this site lol This would be a great post we’re it not for the fact that the last map was 10:1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 10 minutes ago, yoda said: Re 6z EPS About 35 of the 50 individual members give DCA 2"+... around 13 or so give DCA warning criteria (around 5" or so) Awesome. I was worried about DC 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Awesome. I was worried about DC 43 of the 50 06z EPS individual members give KOKV 2"+ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This would be a great post we’re it not for the fact that the last map was 10:1 Also this event might be a good chance for 10:1 or slightly better to actually verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Where do I sign? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: Where do I sign? Only if you accept being in a drought zone forever lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Where do I sign? Agreed, one of the best runs this far for my neck. Also increased totals across the board from 0z for basically the whole sub. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Seems like a decent amount of coverage and good totals for such a fast mover. If it happens like the euro it should be a fun event 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, yoda said: 43 of the 50 06z EPS individual members give KOKV 2"+ Thanks @yoda 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Also this event might be a good chance for 10:1 or slightly better to actually verify. Yep. I’m thinking 20:1. Anybody with me? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 17 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said: People still posting kuchera models for the sole reason the totals are always higher I imagine. Love this site lol That's not correct. With storms that have temp problems, Kuchera is the lowest. Sometimes by several magnitudes. Kuchera uses modeled ratios and ground/air temps in the calculation. It's useful. Very. If you use it right and not just rip and read Eta: this storm has all the ingredients for 10:1+. Our area usually maxes at 15:1 no matter what the models say. But in this case, the column is solid top to bottom and we're exclusively on the cold side of the storm (for now). It's completely reasonable in this case to assume a minimum of 10:1. How much qpf falls is a different disco 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 9 minutes ago, yoda said: Only if you accept being in a drought zone forever lol I think that's a given. Whether I agree or not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Yep. I’m thinking 20:1. Anybody with me? Quite likely for you and me and 15:1 for areas closer to the beltways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Talking about SRs... wasn't there a website that showed that? Or forecasted? I remember seeing it before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 HRRR has a realistic scenario where there is a relative min east of the mountains and before the low strengthens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Of it has a DC snow hole then it will be correct 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: HRRR has a realistic scenario where there is a relative min east of the mountains and before the low strengthens. That's some turd in the punchbowl stuff right there....next time don't post until you've had your coffee 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: HRRR has a realistic scenario where there is a relative min east of the mountains and before the low strengthens. Ha, if that happened after Monday's debacle, I'd have to step away for a bit. Just give me some decent snow so I can take the kids sledding this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: That's some turd in the punchbowl stuff right there....next time don't post until you've had your coffee Unfortunately, this is how these storms often break for my yard so pretty reasonable outcome. You generally always do better in da burg thanjust west of 95 burbs. Every once in a blue the enhanced stripe to the east helps me out but more often than not... outside looking in with best totals on these deals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, Bob Chill said: Unfortunately, this is how these storms often break for my yard so pretty reasonable outcome. You generally always do better in da burg that just west of 95 burbs. Every once in a blue the enhanced stripe to the east helps me out but more often than not... outside looking in with best totals on these deals Even that particular model run is still 1-3" for most so in line i think the scale throws off perception a bit. It does highlight the skip nature of these events though but all of the other models showed it as well just not as drastically because of the dull grey color on this one. HRRR at 45 though...i'm hugging the euro and canada for now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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