NorthArlington101 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Little juicer. Still favors the (currently) rich. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 The sw was definitely north of its last model. Im gonna have to read about this tomorrow. Tired of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Little juicer. Still favors the (currently) rich. Bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 There was a north-northwest push but the heaviest stuff remained mostly steady. 00z then 18z below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FamouslyHot Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 That's 18zI think it’s time I go to bed . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: There was a north-northwest push but the heaviest stuff remained mostly steady. 00z then 18z below. Isn't there some additional light precip on the next frame as well? I realize it's not much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Isn't there some additional light precip on the next frame as well? I realize it's not much...maybe a bit, sorry. 24 hour 00z totals: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 41 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Back To sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Nam a little juicier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 06z 3k NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 436 AM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 VAZ503-WVZ505-051745- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0002.220106T2000Z-220107T1500Z/ Western Highland-Western Pendleton- 436 AM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations up to 7 inches possible. * WHERE...In Virginia, Western Highland County. In West Virginia, Western Pendleton County. * WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions may impact travel Thursday night into Friday morning. Snow covered and slippery roads are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 436 AM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 VAZ025-026-029-504-507-508-WVZ506-051745- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0002.220106T2200Z-220107T1100Z/ Augusta-Rockingham-Page-Eastern Highland- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Eastern Pendleton- 436 AM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations up to 6 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of the central Shenandoah Valley and the Blue Ridge Mountains. * WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact evening commute Thursday as well as the morning commute Friday. Snow covered and slippery roads are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Good morning AFD from LWX SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Chillier air will filter in behind a cold front Thursday as weak surface high pressure builds overhead. However, the next system will be fast on its heels. A potent jetmax and shortwave in the northern stream of the jet will will dig southeast through the central CONUS and Midwest Thursday. This will carve out an upper-level trough over the Midwest by the end of the day. Surface low pressure will develop well to our south over the southeastern CONUS by the end of the day as well. The shortwave and jetmax will pass through our area Thursday night while the surface low strengthens and tracks northeast through North Carolina Thursday evening and off the North Carolina coast Thursday night. This signal appears to be like a Miller B type low. The track of the shortwave will be far enough to the south to put our area in the favorable region of the mid and upper-level jet for precipitation to develop. Also, there may be added lift from the coastal low, or at least some low-level frontogenetical forcing around 850mb (which can be seen in some of the guidance). There should be enough cold and dry air for the main precipitation type to be snow, and snow is likely to accumulate for most of the CWA. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the Potomac Highlands, central Shenandoah Valley, and the Blue Ridge Mountains. As of now, it appears that the best lift associated with this system will set up over these areas, and that will also combine with higher SLR`s (especially over the higher elevations) to enhance snowfall totals. There was consideration for issuing a watch farther northeast toward central VA/southern MD and the Washington DC metro areas. However, lower SLR`s combined with the fact that this is a fast moving system kept confidence below 50 percent for warning criteria to be met. This will be re-assessed later today. However, 2 to 4 inches are most likely across these areas, and that will impact travel, especially overnight Thursday. Farther north across northern MD, eastern WV, and northern VA, accumulating snow is likely across these areas. However, with the better synoptic lift most likely setting up to the south, that kept confidence too low for a watch in those areas at this time. This system will move out of the area by Friday morning, with just some upslope snow showers possible along/west of the Allegheny Front. However, with temperatures below freezing there will be issues with snow covered surfaces that are untreated. Canadian high pressure will approach, and the gradient between the high and the departing low will cause blustery and cold conditions. The high will build overhead Friday night, and winds will diminish but it will be cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Looks like 2-4 sounds like a good bet for most ETA: after looking at the 06z NAMs/GFS/RGEM/ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Go loop the h5. You can see this thing stepping more north with each run. Look at this picture. You can see the inverted v that I mentioned yesterday. Of course this is the NAM. But were it’s trends to continue, this would eventually get to the place where this hops right over us and produce basically nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Was the euro so bad everyone is ignoring it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 11 minutes ago, snowfan said: Was the euro so bad everyone is ignoring it? Folks usually don't stay up for the Euro on a weeknight for a small event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Folks usually don't stay up for the Euro on a weeknight for a small event. Would still be nice to see what it showed…any body have info? Looks like the NAM-Icon-GEM and RGEM were all steady or even improvements from their previous runs. GFS another little step back though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said: Would still be nice to see what it showed…any body have info? Looks like the NAM-Icon-GEM and RGEM were all steady or even improvements from their previous runs. GFS another little step back though It's free now, homie https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 06z euro is improved, more precip for everyone. Solid 2-4 event. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Topher Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 6z euro slightly improved. 500mb heights in front of the vort slightly more amped. .29 precip dca(0z had .19) more to the south and slightly less to the north but mostly everyone above .2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Have not paid much attention but looks like a quick hitting 2-4, with a bit of banding potential probably closer to the coast as indicated on the GFS and the 6z Euro. Skinny jack zone of up to 6 somewhere maybe. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: sold! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 13 minutes ago, CAPE said: Wrap that up w a nice bow. No need for additional model runs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, snowfan said: Wrap that up w a nice bow. No need for additional model runs Nice try…..we have 52 different models these days that we can obsessively analyze and talk about. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Look at h7 and h85 vorticity and you can see where the potential is for a bit of a heavier stripe but this thing is a fast mover so probably advisory level event for the majority if not all of the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now