Eskimo Joe Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 57 minutes ago, snowfan said: There’s too much reliance on the HRRR close in for events. It bounces around with adjustments every run and to be frank, it kinda sucked near the metro areas last night. Many of us that got 3-4” were getting 1-2 based on the HRRR. Yea the HRRR and RAP were too dry across the board. When that early band was putting down 1"/hr rates along I-81 the RAP still had no snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Slightly over-performed in my part of Columbia with about 4.5" Temp has fallen a bit from 27 at dawn ..... to 25 at 7:45am. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 4.3” in Darlington, MD. Wish it was my house but it’s not lol. Will have my home base measurement soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jparrott Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Maybe 2" of weightless powder and a beautiful sunrise in the Subdivision Mecca part of Bristow. What took 90 minutes to shovel on Monday took about 10 to shovel today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Four inches - a legit snow! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Another factor in the model discussion is the ratios. This was a very high ratio storm around here for us. None of the models really do that well, even using Kuchera. DCA/IAD/BWI were all under .25” of precip. The GFS was by far the worst model in this regard. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: Four inches - a legit snow! Told you it would snow, friend! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: Told you it would snow, friend! it did! you did! (next hereford zone goal - snow during the day when I can enjoy it falling...) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 10 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 2.8” new on 0.20” precip in Falls Church, so good ratios. I’ll push back on some of the model commentary. At least around here, the GFS had way too much precipitation. The HRRR was more realistic except for a few runs last night that went too dry. The NAM and Euro were the best on QPF in the DC area. I thought the nams did well with the evolution, and the 3km with totals, but wondering other’s thoughts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: Another factor in the model discussion is the ratios. This was a very high ratio storm around here for us. None of the models really do that well, even using Kuchera. DCA/IAD/BWI were all under .25” of precip. The GFS was by far the worst model in this regard. Good info. Only 0.2” at BWI, wow. And I think they reported 3” even? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Another factor in the model discussion is the ratios. This was a very high ratio storm around here for us. None of the models really do that well, even using Kuchera. DCA/IAD/BWI were all under .25” of precip. The GFS was by far the worst model in this regard. I think the euro and 3k nam did pretty well depicting the axis of banding and general qpf totals in our area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: it did! you did! (next hereford zone goal - snow during the day when I can enjoy it falling...) I am happy that you got your first hereford zone snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 9 minutes ago, T. August said: 4.3” in Darlington, MD. Wish it was my house but it’s not lol. Will have my home base measurement soon. 2.6” at home :(( 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 This seems like a serious overperformer north of us. Saw some reports over almost 10 inches in NYC area and places in New England are going to go over a foot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, mappy said: I am happy that you got your first hereford zone snow the late upgrade to a Warning was a bonus. Don't tell @Maestrobjwa that I finally got a warning (only had to move)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Good info. Only 0.2” at BWI, wow. And I think they reported 3” even? Yup. And usually I’m leery of the ASOS precip totals in snowfall, but that was almost dead on with mine (2.8”/0.20). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Seems everyone in the forum is happy this week! Congrats everyone! 2.5” of fresh powder here in Ft. Hunt, Va this morning. It was a beautiful falling snow, at least when I woke up at 3am, too bad it wasn’t during the daytime. On to the next one, may it be a Miller A hecs! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Yup. And usually I’m leery of the ASOS precip totals in snowfall, but that was almost dead on with mine (2.8”/0.20). So 14-15:1 ratios. Much higher than normal for us. On a related note, did you see BWI apparently revised their Monday total down to 6.0”?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Windy with blowing snow on 25 MPH winds out here in Winchester. My snowboard is pretty much cleaned off by the wind. Measured 5.3 on my car. So I am going with that. Probably had more if I had measured throughout the night. Just a perfect winter day out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: So 14-15:1 ratios. Much higher than normal for us. On a related note, did you see BWI apparently revised their Monday total down to 6.0”?? That’s strange. They should send out an explanation when something like that happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 As a side note check out that bowling ball out near Baja: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=09&length=12&dim=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 7 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: the late upgrade to a Warning was a bonus. Don't tell @Maestrobjwa that I finally got a warning (only had to move)... That happened after I went to bed, though saw the alert in my notifications on my phone when I woke up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Looks like a 4" total here in Colesville, MD. Perhaps some compaction. Very happy with the result given some of the modeling of that screw zone. Nice fluffy - easy to shovel snow. Pretty! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Good info, MN. Much appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: That’s strange. They should send out an explanation when something like that happens. It is. But that’s what I see in the monthly climo report and has been that way since Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 4.0 on the money here, which was what I had at 11pm last night, must have stopped shortly after I went to bed, still a win. Much 'fluffier' snow, 0.26 on 4.0 is about 15/1 ratio. Currently 16.7/10.0 with a NNW at 7 gusting 22 wind, starting to blow the snow around. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 21 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Another factor in the model discussion is the ratios. This was a very high ratio storm around here for us. None of the models really do that well, even using Kuchera. DCA/IAD/BWI were all under .25” of precip. The GFS was by far the worst model in this regard. I don’t think any model will ever be able to nail down ratios all that well. It really feels it is just too much to ask a model to know how much microclimates and more affect ratios. They do a hell of a job just to get as close as they do already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, H2O said: I don’t think any model will ever be able to nail down ratios all that well. It really feels it is just too much to ask a model to know how much microclimates and more affect ratios. They do a hell of a job just to get as close as they do already yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Just measured exactly 5 inches in downtown Leesburg. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Whitegrass reporting 14" new. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now