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Jan 6/7 "Event" and obs


stormtracker
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I was able to watch the snow for about 2.5 hours last night. Think it really started snowing around 8:30 at my place. Went to bed with what eyeballed around 3”. Must’ve come down pretty good after 11. Obs at KOKV were snow and heavy snow until about 1 am. I just couldn’t stay up. Had been up since about 5 am the previous morning and had had a minor surgery done and I was wiped. Sounds like most people got a decent event which is good. One of the models and I can’t remember which did an amazing job with that dry air. Almost to the mile out here either the western part of the county getting measurable snow almost two hours earlier than the eastern part.

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4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

When it differed so much from every other 00z mesoscale guidance last night, I put extremely little confidence in what it showing for close in metro areas (it did seem to do well out west near Winchester advertising the 6”+ totals though). 

But in addition to the HRRR over reliance  (which can swing from hour to hour to your point), there’s also the ‘panics’ that spread over radar hallucinations or whatever.  Last night’s “snow hole” had been modeled all week (even by the GFS), yet the “lack of snow” by 10p was already causing people to poo poo and down play the event with things like…this feels like a grass topper but nothing more….because the radar and heavy banding to the NW.  It’s nothing new and happens in every event, but you’d think we’d learn by now.

1) just don’t use the hrrr past like 1-2 hours

2) people need to see what the radar is supposed to look like. Every time we do this it’s like people see returns out in WV and western VA and expect it to be snowing in 15 mins…even if it’s not supposed to be for 8 more hours!!!  They forget how attenuation works. Then they freak out over every gap or shift in the precip shield even if it’s doing exactly what it was supposed too!  

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3 minutes ago, dukeblue219 said:

I don't know how much it's compacted, but woke up to 2.25" of fresh snow on the deck this morning. Not bad. Sidewalks and streets are mixed but not covered - looks like a lot of snow was wasted on the front end there. (near downtown Silver Spring) 

My street was clean when I woke up but has been blown over with snow now from the trees.  

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Woke up to a fresh coating. 
 

2.75”. Could call it 3” but it wasn’t evenly 3”. So I’ll go low a little. 
 

Snow on snow is the best and any bare spots are covered up now.  I’m so happy some of y’all got a good snow from this!!

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2 minutes ago, H2O said:

Woke up to a fresh coating. 
 

2.75”. Could call it 3” but it wasn’t evenly 3”. So I’ll go low a little. 
 

Snow on snow is the best and any bare spots are covered up now.  I’m so happy some of y’all got a good snow from this!!

yay!

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2.8” new on 0.20” precip in Falls Church, so good ratios.  
 

I’ll push back on some of the model commentary.  At least around here, the GFS had way too much precipitation.  The HRRR was more realistic except for a few runs last night that went too dry.  The NAM and Euro were the best on QPF in the DC area.

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