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Jan 6/7 "Event" and obs


stormtracker
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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Good morning! Just measured a stunning 4.5” of powder!!! WTF!?! Did a measurement on the car top just to confirm because I couldn’t believe it at first lol. Looks like I slept through some serious fun. All hail King GFS!!:snowman::snowing::snowwindow:

Yeah man, you missed some crazy weather from 1-4am

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We going to talk about the major improvements on the GFS? Been money so far this season. The fact that it did so well with a storm like this involving WAA, energy transfer to the coast, etc - is pretty dang impressive. Especially for a global suite. Did the best with Monday’s storm too. 
 

Do we have a new king in town?

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Clearly. Watched the radar loop. That band meant business and I’m guessing we did get some really nice ratios as expected/hoped.

Approached 25:1 at the height of things. Was the fluffiest snow I’ve seen since leaving buffalo. Unreal, honestly. 

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

So I take the hallucinations last night about the “snow hole” (which was modeled all week btw) were the wrong take?  

Looks like I missed some fun in the overnight….measured 2.6” of pure Colorado fluff.  What a week of winter here!  Over a foot of snow.

Crazy part is that 2.6” likely fell in 2 hours max. 

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3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Woke up to see if I was going to work today. Looked out the window and no that's not happening. When I went ro bed last night at 12:30 I had well over 4 inches. Haven't measured yet but it looks close to double that now. But of course I do have weenie eyes. 

Widespread reports of 6-7” from my area to yours. Wouldn’t be surprised at all if you had 7-8”

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6 minutes ago, nj2va said:

So I take the hallucinations last night about the “snow hole” (which was modeled all week btw) were the wrong take?  

Looks like I missed some fun in the overnight….measured 2.6” of pure Colorado fluff.  What a week of winter here!  Over a foot of snow.

There’s too much reliance on the HRRR close in for events. It bounces around with adjustments every run and to be frank, it kinda sucked near the metro areas last night. Many of us that got 3-4” were getting 1-2 based on the HRRR. 

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Just now, snowfan said:

There’s too much reliance on the HRRR close in for events. It bounces around with adjustments every run and to be frank, it kinda sucked near the metro areas last night. Many of us that got 3-4” were getting 1-2 based on the HRRR. 

When it differed so much from every other 00z mesoscale guidance last night, I put extremely little confidence in what it showing for close in metro areas (it did seem to do well out west near Winchester advertising the 6”+ totals though). 

But in addition to the HRRR over reliance  (which can swing from hour to hour to your point), there’s also the ‘panics’ that spread over radar hallucinations or whatever.  Last night’s “snow hole” had been modeled all week (even by the GFS), yet the “lack of snow” by 10p was already causing people to poo poo and down play the event with things like…this feels like a grass topper but nothing more….because the radar and heavy banding to the NW.  It’s nothing new and happens in every event, but you’d think we’d learn by now.

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7 minutes ago, snowfan said:

There’s too much reliance on the HRRR close in for events. It bounces around with adjustments every run and to be frank, it kinda sucked near the metro areas last night. Many of us that got 3-4” were getting 1-2 based on the HRRR. 

Yep. HRRR outside of 1-2 hours is pretty useless IMHO. You can gather much more info from looking at surface obs, SPC Meso analysis, WV loop, radar, etc when it comes to determining whether or not your BY will boom or bust. Nowcasting is always the best tool in marginal / timing setups   

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4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Took this just a moment ago….

A1D660F7-00FA-44A4-AFAF-66FA6AD3DDC2.thumb.jpeg.41ae2b7f269ea0126f5ee9c83bbbfd3c.jpeg

Waiting for my final total so that I can add 0.1” to whatever @clskinsfan reports.

Going to be a while. I am in no hurry to get out of this warm bed. And I don't really care how much I ended up with. Everything is covered and that's all I wanted. :)

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