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Jan 6/7 "Event" and obs


stormtracker
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Woke up to a fresh coating. 
 

2.75”. Could call it 3” but it wasn’t evenly 3”. So I’ll go low a little. 
 

Snow on snow is the best and any bare spots are covered up now.  I’m so happy some of y’all got a good snow from this!!

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2 minutes ago, H2O said:

Woke up to a fresh coating. 
 

2.75”. Could call it 3” but it wasn’t evenly 3”. So I’ll go low a little. 
 

Snow on snow is the best and any bare spots are covered up now.  I’m so happy some of y’all got a good snow from this!!

yay!

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2.8” new on 0.20” precip in Falls Church, so good ratios.  
 

I’ll push back on some of the model commentary.  At least around here, the GFS had way too much precipitation.  The HRRR was more realistic except for a few runs last night that went too dry.  The NAM and Euro were the best on QPF in the DC area.

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57 minutes ago, snowfan said:

There’s too much reliance on the HRRR close in for events. It bounces around with adjustments every run and to be frank, it kinda sucked near the metro areas last night. Many of us that got 3-4” were getting 1-2 based on the HRRR. 

Yea the HRRR and RAP were too dry across the board. When that early band was putting down 1"/hr rates along I-81 the RAP still had no snow. 

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10 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

2.8” new on 0.20” precip in Falls Church, so good ratios.  
 

I’ll push back on some of the model commentary.  At least around here, the GFS had way too much precipitation.  The HRRR was more realistic except for a few runs last night that went too dry.  The NAM and Euro were the best on QPF in the DC area.

I thought the nams did well with the evolution, and the 3km with totals, but wondering other’s thoughts.

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1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

Another factor in the model discussion is the ratios.  This was a very high ratio storm around here for us.  None of the models really do that well, even using Kuchera.

DCA/IAD/BWI were all under .25” of precip.  The GFS was by far the worst model in this regard.  

Good info. Only 0.2” at BWI, wow. And I think they reported 3” even?

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3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Another factor in the model discussion is the ratios.  This was a very high ratio storm around here for us.  None of the models really do that well, even using Kuchera.

DCA/IAD/BWI were all under .25” of precip.  The GFS was by far the worst model in this regard.  

I think the euro and 3k nam did pretty well depicting the axis of banding and general qpf totals in our area. 

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