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Jan 6/7 "Event" and obs


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1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Don't blame you. I lived in Yonkers and then NYC for seven years. Even that was almost too cold for me when the polar vortex settled. I'd tolerate it for the snow though. NYC was significantly easier than here in DC. 

Absolutely. Downstate New Yorker born and raised here. I’m from a town called Stony Point, NY. Lived there from childhood through college, when I went off to Buffalo (it was a snowy and cold state school and far away from my hometown) Saw some absolutely incredible nor’easters over the years living in the NW NYC suburbs. PD 1 and 2, 96, Boxing Day, the infamous Christmas storm that featured heavy rain to over a foot of snow within roughly 6 hours… the list is long. 
 

I miss the snowier winters up there, but the snow was almost a given. The chase from living down here is part of the fun! 

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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Absolutely. Downstate New Yorker born and raised here. I’m from a town called Stony Point, NY. Lived there from childhood through college, when I went off to Buffalo (it was a snowy and cold state school and far away from my hometown) Saw some absolutely incredible nor’easters over the years living in the NW NYC suburbs. PD 1 and 2, 96, Boxing Day, the infamous Christmas storm that featured heavy rain to over a foot of snow within roughly 6 hours… the list is long. 
 

I miss the snowier winters up there, but the snow was almost a given. The chase from living down here is part of the fun! 

I think I'd feel like it was a given if I lived in Central Mass or something. In New York, there were plenty of misses. For me it's just a little too tough down here. Ellicott City was manageable because topologically it made for good rates and dynamics. I friggin' hate this DC snow hole stuff. It really is a swamp of sinking air. I guess it's better than Raleigh or something. 

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It’s too bad we didn’t have a big ole HP stationed off the coast of Maine to slow things down or anything to capture the low off the coast. This would have been absolutely epic if it were a longer duration event. 
 

Extremely satisfied, however. No complaints. Warning level snowfall verified with great rates.  Been a long time since we’ve seen 2 warning level snow events within 5 days in these parts. Crazy part? The pattern looks even juicier from MLK day on.    

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2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

31, snow, 2"....this is winding down quickly...i think the only remaining question is whether I make 2.25 lol

My fiancé is on 16th and Columbia. I'm just glad she gets to telework and wake up to a couple inches. We're going to look for places in the city this summer--NOT looking forward to it come winter. Being up here in CC is like day and night. We're probably going to double that total tonight. 

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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

It’s too bad we didn’t have a big ole HP stationed off the coast of Maine to slow things down or anything to capture the low off the coast. This would have been absolutely epic if it were a longer duration event. 
 

Extremely satisfied, however. No complaints. Warning level snowfall verified with great rates.  Been a long time since we’ve seen 2 warning level snow events within 5 days in these parts. Crazy part? The pattern looks even juicier from MLK day on.    

Not quite Feb. 5 & 9 in 2010, but I'll take it!

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2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

I think I'd feel like it was a given if I lived in Central Mass or something. In New York, there were plenty of misses. For me it's just a little too tough down here. Ellicott City was manageable because topologically it made for good rates and dynamics. I friggin' hate this DC snow hole stuff. It really is a swamp of sinking air. I guess it's better than Raleigh or something. 

That’s true. However, I was typically far enough northwest to see frozen precipitation during marginal events. Snow to ice was relatively common in those setups. 287/87 is typically the battle zone in that area. There were multiple events each winter where nyc and LI would be rain as it snowed 6+ in my neck of the woods. Elevation really takes off once you get 40+ miles away from NYC. New England usually did fair better 8/10 winters however. 
 

It’s crazy how much 10-20-30 miles means down here in Maryland / DC. Ellicott city versus DC versus Manchester in such a small geographic radius. It can be frustrating for sure, but at least it’s fun to track!

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Parkville(NE Baltimore). Decided to sleep through this one, expecting a 1-2 inch event. My brain must be in tune because I randomly woke up at 1 AM and it seemed to be right around when it started, then randomly woke up about 15 minutes ago go heavy snowfall. I haven't gotten out of bed but just by eyeing it out the window, I'd guess there's a solid 3+ out there. 

 

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Looking like 6” is going to be the final tally as things wrap up  

NWS Taunton / Boston upped their totals to 8-12”. No surprise there. The storm looks awfully impressive now that the coastal has taken over. Heavy snow spanning from Boston to Baltimore 

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3 minutes ago, jayyy said:

That’s true. However, I was typically far enough northwest to see frozen precipitation during marginal events. Snow to ice was relatively common in those setups. 287/87 is typically the battle zone in that area. There were multiple events each winter where nyc and LI would be rain as it snowed 6+ in my neck of the woods. Elevation really takes off once you get 40+ miles away from NYC. New England usually did fair better 8/10 winters however. 
 

It’s crazy how much 10-20-30 miles means down here in Maryland / DC. Ellicott city versus DC versus Manchester in such a small geographic radius. It can be frustrating for sure, but at least it’s fun to track!

The geography in this area is definitely crazy. I'm not in one of the NW spots, but I'm JUST west of 95 in NE Baltimore and I've felt very fortunate over the years because I'm usually barely NW of the battle zone for precip types in bigger storms. 

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2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

That’s true. However, I was typically far enough northwest to see frozen precipitation during marginal events. Snow to ice was relatively common in those setups. 287/87 is typically the battle zone in that area. There were multiple events each winter where nyc and LI would be rain as it snowed 6+ in my neck of the woods. Elevation really takes off once you get 40+ miles away from NYC. New England usually did fair better 8/10 winters however. 
 

It’s crazy how much 10-20-30 miles means down here in Maryland / DC. Ellicott city versus DC versus Manchester in such a small geographic radius. It can be frustrating for sure, but at least it’s fun to track!

It's funny, when I was in NYC, the north shore of Long Island seemed to cash in on everything. If you snoop around the NYC thread you'll hear the old timers talking about how different things are now. It might have just been a lucky stretch of years, but damn, they would absolutely crush us 3/5 times because of Lows heading right over the benchmark. 

The difference in geographical significance is absolutely true. In the city, the dynamics were really tight because you were on the water, and Harlem (where I was) would often do better than Brooklyn. But overall, you'd have to go really far inland on marginal events. That blizzard in 2017 was absolutely soul crushing. It was supposed to be the storm of my lifetime, but within 24 hours the track tucked in just enough to turn us to sleet after about 7 inches. You had to go at least 40 miles inland to see all snow. Here in MD it can be a matter of being in the District or being where I am. 

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1 minute ago, Steve25 said:

The geography in this area is definitely crazy. I'm not in one of the NW spots, but I'm JUST west of 95 in NE Baltimore and I've felt very fortunate over the years because I'm usually barely NW of the battle zone for precip types in bigger storms. 

Feel the same way and I was in Ellicott City. We had some great dynamics in that little microclimate. 

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4 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

It's funny, when I was in NYC, the north shore of Long Island seemed to cash in on everything. If you snoop around the NYC thread you'll hear the old timers talking about how different things are now. It might have just been a lucky stretch of years, but damn, they would absolutely crush us 3/5 times because of Lows heading right over the benchmark. 

The difference in geographical significance is absolutely true. In the city, the dynamics were really tight because you were on the water, and Harlem (where I was) would often do better than Brooklyn. But overall, you'd have to go really far inland on marginal events. That blizzard in 2017 was absolutely soul crushing. It was supposed to be the storm of my lifetime, but within 24 hours the track tucked in just enough to turn us to sleet after about 7 inches. You had to go at least 40 miles inland to see all snow. Here in MD it can be a matter of being in the District or being where I am. 

Long Island is a very tricky place to forecast. I’d argue one of the most difficult in the northeast. South shore and east end (forks) versus the north shore in Nassau county. I remember several storms where the north shore managed to stay all snow, while the Hampton got cold rain and sleet.  When Long Island manages to stay all snow, they get pummeled. It is ideally placed for bands off the Atlantic from benchmark lows. You can see it with this storm. Those deep greens and yellows off the shoreline heading due north for the island. Incredible. 

Hell, I moved only 25 mins north of my old house here in Maryland and the difference is night and day. DC is a crazy phenomenon of its own. So, so unlucky with dry air. 

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7 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Now we do 4 out of 5 very cold days(with a sloppy Sunday in-between)

Yep! Looks like cold, broken by being on the warm side of the Sunday storm, into some days of normal temps in the 40’s before the pattern/cold reloads late next weekend as the MLK day storm forms. 
 

The 17th-30th has the potential to be an incredible period if the chips fall correctly. 00z Gfs was one of the weeniest runs I’ve ever seen. EPS mean looks tasty as well. Going to be a fun few weeks of tracking  

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28.5 with moderate snow here currently. I'm guessing it started after 1am. Decided not to lose sleep over this one after the big storm earlier in the week lol.

Pretty out there, looks like 2" so far just eyeballing. The 2-4" forecast looks good for here unless I get in on some meso banding, but that looks like it will be east of here per most guidance.

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7 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Yep! Looks like cold, broken by being on the warm side of the Sunday storm, into some days of normal temps in the 40’s before the pattern/cold reloads late next weekend as the MLK day storm forms. 
 

The 17th-30th has the potential to be an incredible period if the chips fall correctly. 00z Gfs was one of the weeniest runs I’ve ever seen. EPS mean looks tasty as well. Going to be a fun few weeks of tracking  

Stock up on whatever it is you drink to stay awake. Because you are gonna be awake for days and days tracking this.

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