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Jan 6/7 "Event" and obs


stormtracker
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10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I feel ya. I had flurries and now snow has stopped. This winter sucks. :)

Looks like that initial slug was just a blip...still light snow here but its pulling north.  Once the stuff down near Luray gets up here it should be game on. Not too much longer.

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16 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Already have a car topper here in Smithsburg. Wasn't expecting it to start for a few more hours

You look to be in a good spot man.  I am on the southern end of this "band" and its a nice, steady light snow but beautiful fluffy dendrites falling now as thing the dry air fades.  Not quite a car topper here but getting there.

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2 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Don't the metros usually struggle with dry spots when you're dealing with a transfer to the coast? Then when you combine how quick this one is moving, just doesn't seem like a great formula. 

Im sure I'm missing something, as I'm lacking in the knowledge many of you have. 

Yeah it depends on where it transfers. When it happens at our latitude as opposed to just south (like around VA or may northern NC), then yes, dry spots will happen. So when ya say "transfer"...ya want it just south, lol

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The storm is quite literally overhead. It’s a nowcast situation when you have several models showing different tracks and evolutions this close to an event. 

Radar, meso analysis, WV loop, surface analysis, etc… will tell us more than a model will at this point. 

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Mmmmhmmm

RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
659 PM EST Thu Jan 6 2022

DCZ001-MDZ005-006-008-011-013-014-016-018-503>508-VAZ052>054-502-
506-071200-
/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0003.220107T0200Z-220107T1200Z/
District of Columbia-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-
Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-Calvert-
Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-
Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Southern Fauquier-
Eastern Loudoun-
659 PM EST Thu Jan 6 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with
  localized amounts up to 5 inches.

* WHERE...The District of Columbia, portions of central,
  northeast, northern and southern Maryland and northern Virginia.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow may fall at 1 inch or greater per hour
  overnight. Visibility will drop down to one quarter mile or
  less during the heaviest snow.
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14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's not even supposed to be snowing in our area for about 5 more hours...some ya all need to chill.  WRT radar, it looks exactly how its supposed to look.  The banding streaming off to our NW is supposed to.  That isn't what brings the DC area any snow.  As the upper level energy now over KY/WV emerges through VA later tonight that banding down to our SW will transition across the area.  Everything looks exactly like it should on radar to me.  Not worse, not better...the way its supposed too.  WRT the HRRR and RUC they are eratic as all get out.  From one storm to another they can be good or just plain awful.  But the difference isnt that crazy.  There was one run that was 1.2 QPF but most runs of the HRRR have been around 1.5-1.9 QPF.  With expected ratios thats about 2".  We are expecting 2-4" so thats on the low side but not that out of range.  Some of the better guidance (except the GFS which is probably on crack) is closer to .3 QPF which would be the 3-4" possibility with good ratios.   I guess if you were expecting this to suddenly explode into a 6-12" snowstorm then it looks like a disaster so far but if you are expecting the 2-4" that was generally advertised by most guidance lately...everything looks fine imo.  

Posting trying to tell weenies to chill when there isn't an impending line of thundersnow heading our way is basically just posting to read your own words.  Might as well just type "thoughts and prayers".  

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
659 PM EST Thu Jan 6 2022

MDZ003-004-VAZ025>031-038>040-051-501-505-WVZ051>053-071000-
/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-220107T1000Z/
Washington-Frederick MD-Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-
Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-
Culpeper-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Morgan-Berkeley-
Jefferson-
659 PM EST Thu Jan 6 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with
  localized amounts up to 6 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of north central Maryland, central, northern,
  northwest and western Virginia and eastern West Virginia.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow may fall at 1 inch or greater per hour
  overnight. Visibility will drop down to one quarter mile or
  less during the heaviest snow.
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1 minute ago, yoda said:

Mmmmhmmm

RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
659 PM EST Thu Jan 6 2022

DCZ001-MDZ005-006-008-011-013-014-016-018-503>508-VAZ052>054-502-
506-071200-
/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0003.220107T0200Z-220107T1200Z/
District of Columbia-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-
Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-Calvert-
Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-
Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Southern Fauquier-
Eastern Loudoun-
659 PM EST Thu Jan 6 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with
  localized amounts up to 5 inches.

* WHERE...The District of Columbia, portions of central,
  northeast, northern and southern Maryland and northern Virginia.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow may fall at 1 inch or greater per hour
  overnight. Visibility will drop down to one quarter mile or
  less during the heaviest snow.

So… they went from 2-4” lollipop 6”, to 2-4”, to 2-4” lollipop 5”. Got it. 

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