Random Chaos Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: OK. That is the first time in my life I have seen a car standing straight up in a snow bank. Hilarious. Clearly you need to drive more around the DC area after a storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 22z HRRR and RAP are dry af. hopefully they're missing something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 22z HRRR and RAP are dry af. hopefully they're missing something What's missing will be our snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Snowing lightly in Smithsburg . 30 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Frontogen looks decent already on current mesoanalysis I think we're going to do really well with this one. 4-6 for us. Fingers crossed. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 5 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 22z HRRR and RAP are dry af. hopefully they're missing something They got sick of reading this thread and called it off. I keep telling people they have to be nice to wx models and mother nature or else but they just don't listen... 3 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Light echoes are on my doorstep but nothing yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Just now, H2O said: The RAP was dry as well. Latest HRRRRRRRRRRRR is only 1.2" for DC I’m grasping here… but how reliable is the hrrr? Does anyone have verification scores? I’ve seen scores thrown around for the adult models but never for the hrrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, T. August said: I’m grasping here… but how reliable is the hrrr? Does anyone have verification scores? I’ve seen scores thrown around for the adult models but never for the hrrr. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: They got sick of reading this thread and called it off. I keep telling people they have to be nice to wx models and mother nature or else but they just don't listen... That guy this afternoon that said the storm didn't look that great is what did it. The storm saw that and now we get the finger. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, HighStakes said: I think we're going to do really well with this one. 4-6 for us. Fingers crossed. As do I, liking 3-5, but my orographics could put some 6” totals up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Frontogen looks decent already on current mesoanalysis I think it’ll just take some time to rev up for <500 ft elevation (estimating). It’s still a bit dry out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff B Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 33/21Greenspring Valley (SE corner of 21136) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 33/21. Column having a tough time east of the BR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 37/23. Looks like this will start as snow here, in contrast to some model projections. The sun and mid-40s temps really cut back on the snowpack, but still averaging about 6". Even an inch or so would look pretty and put me over Climo, so personally I don't care that much if North and West areas get most of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 It's all good. Look at this impressive radar image... age... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Looks to be way to dry of air for anything to fill in for several more hours over central va and nova.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Had about an hour of flurries being right on the edge of the precip. Light snow finally! 34/27 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Looks to be way to dry of air for anything to fill in for several more hours over central va and nova.Sent from my SM-G998U using TapatalkYeah, that’s what the mesos suggest. Start time has been pushed back for DC metro till like 1-2am on those things. Unrelated boundless optimism: 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Just now, poolz1 said: Had about an hour of flurries being right on the edge of the precip. Light snow finally! 34/27 Already have a car topper here in Smithsburg. Wasn't expecting it to start for a few more hours 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Swanton 23/21. SN About 1.5" so far, but picked up in the last hour 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 In situations like this, the mPING app on your smart phone really helps DOTs, EMs, and NWS with identifying when it's snowing. If you have mPING and can report, please do! More about mPING: https://mping.ou.edu/#:~:text=Meteorological Phenomena Identification Near the,smart phone or mobile device. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Had about an hour of flurries being right on the edge of the precip. Light snow finally! 34/27 I feel ya. I had flurries and now snow has stopped. This winter sucks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 8 minutes ago, KAOS said: It's all good. Look at this impressive radar image... age... Black means heavy snow, right? 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Don't the metros usually struggle with dry spots when you're dealing with a transfer to the coast? Then when you combine how quick this one is moving, just doesn't seem like a great formula. Im sure I'm missing something, as I'm lacking in the knowledge many of you have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Just now, IronTy said: Black means heavy snow, right? Yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 It's not even supposed to be snowing in our area for about 5 more hours...some ya all need to chill. WRT radar, it looks exactly how its supposed to look. The banding streaming off to our NW is supposed to. That isn't what brings the DC area any snow. As the upper level energy now over KY/WV emerges through VA later tonight that banding down to our SW will transition across the area. Everything looks exactly like it should on radar to me. Not worse, not better...the way its supposed too. WRT the HRRR and RUC they are eratic as all get out. From one storm to another they can be good or just plain awful. But the difference isnt that crazy. There was one run that was 1.2 QPF but most runs of the HRRR have been around 1.5-1.9 QPF. With expected ratios thats about 2". We are expecting 2-4" so thats on the low side but not that out of range. Some of the better guidance (except the GFS which is probably on crack) is closer to .3 QPF which would be the 3-4" possibility with good ratios. I guess if you were expecting this to suddenly explode into a 6-12" snowstorm then it looks like a disaster so far but if you are expecting the 2-4" that was generally advertised by most guidance lately...everything looks fine imo. 13 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Camp David reporting snow and 1 mile visibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's not even supposed to be snowing in our area for about 5 more hours...some ya all need to chill. WRT radar, it looks exactly how its supposed to look. The banding streaming off to our NW is supposed to. That isn't what brings the DC area any snow. As the upper level energy now over KY/WV emerges through VA later tonight that banding down to our SW will transition across the area. Everything looks exactly like it should on radar to me. Not worse, not better...the way its supposed too. WRT the HRRR and RUC they are eratic as all get out. From one storm to another they can be good or just plain awful. But the difference isnt that crazy. There was one run that was 1.2 QPF but most runs of the HRRR have been around 1.5-1.9 QPF. With expected ratios thats about 2". We are expecting 2-4" so thats on the low side but not that out of range. Some of the better guidance (except the GFS which is probably on crack) is closer to .3 QPF which would be the 3-4" possibility with good ratios. I guess if you were expecting this to suddenly explode into a 6-12" snowstorm then it looks like a disaster so far but if you are expecting the 2-4" that was generally advertised by most guidance lately...everything looks fine imo. So about 90% of the posters here will think it’s a disaster. Present company included lol. Great post! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, wxtrix said: the Great Pumpkin only visits the most sincere pumpkin patches. I don’t remember what area that guy posted from. But I sincerely hope he goes where it never snows. The Great Pumpkin needs to know I will atone for that disrespectful post 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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