Scraff Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Not really but whatever. Central MD gets the Miller B middle finger. Yep. Let’s hope it’s wrong. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Looks like the government thinks I start as rain out here Thursday night....interesting development 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Me too! I didn’t get to enjoy it either. Hoping to get on the board here for the first time this season as I know you are too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Forget this has only a 5% chance of happening. I'm taking this map to the bank. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You’ll get nothing and like it Spaulding I like the RGEM a lot better... that would be just about perfect. I try to enjoy the small ones but that half inch on the GFS is pushing it for me The RGEM seems to have a weaker initial NS disturbance on the H5 maps compared to the GFS, so we really need that to weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 I’m hanging my hope on insane ratios to turn that turd of a GFS run into a crushing blow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 I’ll go with the pros 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Lwx is pretty bullish in their afternoon disco. The maps make sense too given that the upper level energy is further north than Monday. Just need to avoid a late transfer. I’m assuming the models might jump around a bit with the max precip until that’s figured out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Anecdotal evidence but strongly agree and have thought the same thing for at least 8-10 years. Hot hands rotate. We see it every winter. Gfs does ok in the mid range with northern stream shortwaves. Often the first model to pick up on one with potential. Euro does a nice job with pure southern stream waves in the mid range most of the time. Other than that, it's best to keep an open mind and apply your yard climo and what usually happens with a similar setup. Personally, I stick to the euro/gfs combo and just blend them with my yard climo. Works well for mid range thoughts. Thing is, we're focusing on an acre of land with a model that covers every acre on the planet. What we often think are huge shifts really aren't. Some are absolutely miniscule but the sensible effect is huge. This often results in unfair criticism but that's a whole nuther barrel of worms. Funny...I often think about this during the warm season. What if this was snow? Models calling for .5-.75" and we end up with .25" Nobody cares when its 65 and rain...hardly even mentioned or noticed. In Jan ending up with 1-2" when the forecast was 4-8" would create epic meltdowns. As winter approaches we all get out our magnifying glasses and browbeat any model not within .2" of verification. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 GGEM actually runs at 18z also and was quite acceptable per @mitchnick 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GGEM actually runs at 18z also and was quite acceptable per @mitchnick do you know what website has it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 do you know what website has it?Mitchnik.net 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GGEM actually runs at 18z also and was quite acceptable per @mitchnick I can’t believe you go to that website in Philly, I’m horrified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JVscotch Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: do you know what website has it? https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=18&mod=cmc_gdps&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=18&mod2=cmc_gdps&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=066&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=072 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Isn't the GGEM just the Canadian ensembles? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 18z Euro is weak sauce. 1-3" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: de-bay-cal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 But we deserve snow I don't understand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 The majority of the models have those of us out towards Winchester getting the bulk of our precip from an early band of snow that runs up the Shenandoah Valley ahead of the main system. If that doesnt happen we will end up getting fringed again. It is what it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Couple runs from weenie suicide time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 WB 18Z EURO, Where the snow hole goes no one knows… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 WB 18Z EURO, Where the snow hole goes no one knows…That looks great actually 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The majority of the models have those of us out towards Winchester getting the bulk of our precip from an early band of snow that runs up the Shenandoah Valley ahead of the main system. If that doesnt happen we will end up getting fringed again. It is what it is. That is without a doubt the most reliable precip we get here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The majority of the models have those of us out towards Winchester getting the bulk of our precip from an early band of snow that runs up the Shenandoah Valley ahead of the main system. If that doesnt happen we will end up getting fringed again. It is what it is. It’s ok a lotta chances in the LR..yep a lot going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 9” plus some fluff at the end of the week would be great. What’s the problem? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EURO, Where the snow hole goes no one knows… Awful. Disgusting. Despicable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ji said: 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EURO, Where the snow hole goes no one knows… That looks great actually Acceptable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ji said: 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EURO, Where the snow hole goes no one knows… That looks great actually 2.8 kuchera inches is like a cartopper for you. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Latest LWX AFD mentions strong winds on the back of Friday's snowy system. Hope you guys get pasted with heavy snow then 50 mph gusts blow it all over the place! I know its a bit early and I am jumpin the gun a bit here but you guys getting demolished by a foot of snow really made my day today! I want you to get even more! 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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