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Jan 6/7 "Event" and obs


stormtracker
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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

so many posts for a 3 inch snowstorm. no wonder Bob quit the weather board

This hobby is the anti-thesis of free time efficiency. That's the core reason I backed off. I was spending a disproportionate amount of time doing something pretty much unproductive. My time has become more valuable than a d5+ storm on an op. I only start doing the analysis thing inside of 72 hours. I barely looked at models yesterday too. I just popped in here from time to time to make sure it was still on the table. Yesterday's model runs don't mean jack squat today anyways 

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

My bar is 2".  Any more, great.  Less, that sucks.  But I just got 8 to 10 inches of fun Monday... so I have no room to really complain 

Yeah, just refreshing the snowpack would be great for you guys. I'm seeing grass in lots of spots so.....

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Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Not even much of a screw zone, just a 2-3 inch snowfall for pretty much the entire subforum. 

It’s a screw zone relative to the precip maxes in E MD / DE and WV…. But I agree, as far as this subforum is concerned, it depicts a pretty uniform 2-3” event. 

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This little system started as a 1-3”, 2-4” discussion earlier in the week. Then we all got excited about adding a couple more inches. I guess we are back to where we started.  We won’t really know until tomorrow at around 6 am.  Until then, we will keep checking in every hour (or more) just to see what changed in the models!   And in the meantime, we will keep looking at the medium range to find our next January ‘16.  

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1 minute ago, WVsnowlover said:

They just announced schools are closed here tomorrow in Jefferson County, WV. I've never seen such an early call for a possible couple of inches. 

Timing plus rates plus terrain plus temps probably make it a concern for busses. Don't need much on the roads to make that an issue.

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1 minute ago, Warm Nose said:

Timing plus rates plus terrain plus temps probably make it a concern for busses. Don't need much on the roads to make that an issue.

People act like it has only recently become an “issue”. Snow produces exactly the same problems as it did 30 years ago.

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Gfs is way more focused with the mid level VVs right through our area. Euro is extremely diffuse with multiple vort maxes all over which doesn’t facilitate the banding the Gfs has and instead focuses the greater lift to our east which allows the combo of downslope and subsidence to do our dirty work up 95.  Looking at other guidance most is somewhere in between with 3k NAM closest to the Gfs. 

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I come in here for weather talk and all I see are y'all fighting about generations.  I like the way my butt looks in skinny jeans.  So if millennials made that then I'm happy.

 

42.9/24 baro dropping, clouds and sun, snow melting, squirrel staring at me

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Just now, IUsedToHateCold said:

Weird to have such model divergence at this point. Either the GFS is trailblazing as the new king or it’s reprised it’s role as the Goofus. Either way it is on an island. We will know by tomorrow. 

Is there much divergence though aside from the GFS?  Almost every piece of guidance gives DC ~0.2 QPF.

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