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Jan 6/7 "Event" and obs


stormtracker
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1 minute ago, Warm Nose said:

Timing plus rates plus terrain plus temps probably make it a concern for busses. Don't need much on the roads to make that an issue.

People act like it has only recently become an “issue”. Snow produces exactly the same problems as it did 30 years ago.

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Gfs is way more focused with the mid level VVs right through our area. Euro is extremely diffuse with multiple vort maxes all over which doesn’t facilitate the banding the Gfs has and instead focuses the greater lift to our east which allows the combo of downslope and subsidence to do our dirty work up 95.  Looking at other guidance most is somewhere in between with 3k NAM closest to the Gfs. 

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I come in here for weather talk and all I see are y'all fighting about generations.  I like the way my butt looks in skinny jeans.  So if millennials made that then I'm happy.

 

42.9/24 baro dropping, clouds and sun, snow melting, squirrel staring at me

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Just now, IUsedToHateCold said:

Weird to have such model divergence at this point. Either the GFS is trailblazing as the new king or it’s reprised it’s role as the Goofus. Either way it is on an island. We will know by tomorrow. 

Is there much divergence though aside from the GFS?  Almost every piece of guidance gives DC ~0.2 QPF.

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6 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

We are getting Thomas and Rui back very soon. I think the Wiz are in a good spot. The hot start was a bit of a fluke but if we can get mostly healthy for the second half of the season good things will happen. High clouds streaming into Montclair.

agreed. TB isn't a great lateral player, but he can stick the 3.  

system's on track: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12&dim=1

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1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

That's still an improvement as each run goes

EPS or GEFS are prob best left undiscussed this close in. I'm not sure if there's any value with a low res ens spread when mesos and ops all look mostly the same. Not saying the maps shouldn't be posted. Just that there really isn't much to be gained from them at this point 

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS or GEFS are prob best left undiscussed this close in. I'm not sure if there's any value with a low res ens spread when mesos and ops all look mostly the same. Not saying the maps shouldn't be posted. Just that there really isn't much to be gained from them at this point 

I'm all in....because...what's my other option? :poster_stupid:

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