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Jan 6/7 "Event" and obs


stormtracker
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1 hour ago, poolz1 said:

Honestly curious, what data do you have to support anything different?  Not doubt that the verification scores still suggest the euro is king. But these scores, at least the ones I have seen, only score NH H5.  Each season, any global can have its own reign at the top when it comes to discrete systems.  I have seen no scores when it comes to LP systems in our tiny corner of the NH....60 hours out.  But, I would certainly take a correction from someone more knowledgeable than myself....and that aint hard to find!  

Anecdotal evidence but strongly agree and have thought the same thing for at least 8-10 years. Hot hands rotate. We see it every winter. Gfs does ok in the mid range with northern stream shortwaves. Often the first model to pick up on one with potential. Euro does a nice job with pure southern stream waves in the mid range most of the time. Other than that, it's best to keep an open mind and apply your yard climo and what usually happens with a similar setup. Personally, I stick to the euro/gfs combo and just blend them with my yard climo. Works well for mid range thoughts. 

Thing is, we're focusing on an acre of land with a model that covers every acre on the planet. What we often think are huge shifts really aren't. Some are absolutely miniscule but the sensible effect is huge. This often results in unfair criticism but that's a whole nuther barrel of worms. 

 

 

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I think perspective is important for expectations here. Yesterday was a VERY vigorous shortwave. 

gfs_z500_vort_us_1.png

 

I mean look at that thing. Going neg exactly where we want it. Upper levels were very dynamic. A lot to like right there for potential good snowfall.

 

 

This is Fri's:

gfs_z500_vort_us_10.png

 

If you focus just on surface maps you'd think this storm is similar because of the track and accum snow. But are they similar where it really counts? Not even close imo. 

We don't know exactly how the shortwave is going to look yet. Could easily be sharper/stronger. But it won't be nearly as vigorous as the one that just went thru. For that reason alone, reasonable expectations should be front and center but I kinda doubt they will be. Lol

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Just now, Snowchaser said:

I agree with this map by AccuWeather. Going to head to Snowshoe Thursday night. That is the only place I see where 10+ could be possible with this one. 

SnowMapNEThuFri4Jan8a.jpg?w=632

I am thinking of heading to Canaan Valley. Not sure yet, and it will be very cold. But I'm considering it, especially if it's going to be a solid 6"+.

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5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

1-3" is just fine by me

Agreed. Up to this morning, I figured this was likely a 2-4” event. Maybe a narrow stripe would get a bit more. Today looks more like 1-3”. So be it. Hopefully we don’t get too much more suppression by the northern stream.

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41 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I'd be really happy with a few inches after yesterday. I didn't have a chance to get out and enjoy it much yesterday, so some cold powder on top of yesterday's snowfall on a cold Friday in early January would be awesome!

Me too! I didn’t get to enjoy it either.

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I think perspective is important for expectations here. Yesterday was a VERY vigorous shortwave. 

gfs_z500_vort_us_1.png

 

I mean look at that thing. Going neg exactly where we want it. Upper levels were very dynamic. A lot to like right there for potential good snowfall.

 

 

This is Fri's:

gfs_z500_vort_us_10.png

 

If you focus just on surface maps you'd think this storm is similar because of the track and accum snow. But are they similar where it really counts? Not even close imo. 

We don't know exactly how the shortwave is going to look yet. Could easily be sharper/stronger. But it won't be nearly as vigorous as the one that just went thru. For that reason alone, reasonable expectations should be front and center but I kinda doubt they will be. Lol

Hello there, Chill!  I hope you are doing well these days.

Anyhow...that's a good contrast you show there between yesterday's system and the potential for end of this week.  As you say, not even close.  All the same, I certainly won't be upset at 1-3" of cold powder late Thursday night into early Friday!  The timing, regardless of exactly how much falls, is also going to be pretty bad in terms of traffic and commute.

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