stormtracker Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 Well, if it helps, RGEM is closer to the ICON than NAM/Euro. But...RGEM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, IronTy said: Wtf I have a WWA for freezing rain tomorrow. Where'd that come from? Just what the trees need. Your trees are all dead. As Eric Clapton said: Let it snain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, mattie g said: Your trees are all dead. As Eric Clapton said: Let it snain! Firewood gonna be cheap next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, if it helps, RGEM is closer to the ICON than NAM/Euro. But...RGEM Euro>Icon but RGEM>NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 RGEM keeps hope alive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Looks good to me 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Generally it’s good to lean away from DC snow but when the pattern is like what started couple days ago then it’s wiser to lean in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 O/U seems to be the 3" mark for this 'event' 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 I'd be really happy with a few inches after yesterday. I didn't have a chance to get out and enjoy it much yesterday, so some cold powder on top of yesterday's snowfall on a cold Friday in early January would be awesome! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Everyone ok with happy hour GFS? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westendsnowguy Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Scraff said: Everyone ok with happy hour GFS? Not if you live and die by each run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 18z GFS looks like ICON but favors same areas as yesterday it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: Everyone ok with happy hour GFS? Meh lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: 18z GFS looks like ICON but favors same areas as yesterday it appears. The rich get richer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 gfs was drier/further south, but not a shutout. trend needs to stop, though. 0z will be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 hour ago, poolz1 said: Honestly curious, what data do you have to support anything different? Not doubt that the verification scores still suggest the euro is king. But these scores, at least the ones I have seen, only score NH H5. Each season, any global can have its own reign at the top when it comes to discrete systems. I have seen no scores when it comes to LP systems in our tiny corner of the NH....60 hours out. But, I would certainly take a correction from someone more knowledgeable than myself....and that aint hard to find! Anecdotal evidence but strongly agree and have thought the same thing for at least 8-10 years. Hot hands rotate. We see it every winter. Gfs does ok in the mid range with northern stream shortwaves. Often the first model to pick up on one with potential. Euro does a nice job with pure southern stream waves in the mid range most of the time. Other than that, it's best to keep an open mind and apply your yard climo and what usually happens with a similar setup. Personally, I stick to the euro/gfs combo and just blend them with my yard climo. Works well for mid range thoughts. Thing is, we're focusing on an acre of land with a model that covers every acre on the planet. What we often think are huge shifts really aren't. Some are absolutely miniscule but the sensible effect is huge. This often results in unfair criticism but that's a whole nuther barrel of worms. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 23 minutes ago, Scraff said: Everyone ok with happy hour GFS? Not really but whatever. Central MD gets the Miller B middle finger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 I will not take this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Fozz said: I will not take this. I most definitely will. I'm back in. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 This definitely has the skip factor miss for the area with Miller B.. Not liking the vibe or trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 I think perspective is important for expectations here. Yesterday was a VERY vigorous shortwave. I mean look at that thing. Going neg exactly where we want it. Upper levels were very dynamic. A lot to like right there for potential good snowfall. This is Fri's: If you focus just on surface maps you'd think this storm is similar because of the track and accum snow. But are they similar where it really counts? Not even close imo. We don't know exactly how the shortwave is going to look yet. Could easily be sharper/stronger. But it won't be nearly as vigorous as the one that just went thru. For that reason alone, reasonable expectations should be front and center but I kinda doubt they will be. Lol 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1-3" is just fine by me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, IronTy said: I most definitely will. I'm back in. Yeah that run looks great for those of you down south. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 I agree with this map by AccuWeather. Going to head to Snowshoe Thursday night. That is the only place I see where 10+ could be possible with this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, Snowchaser said: I agree with this map by AccuWeather. Going to head to Snowshoe Thursday night. That is the only place I see where 10+ could be possible with this one. I am thinking of heading to Canaan Valley. Not sure yet, and it will be very cold. But I'm considering it, especially if it's going to be a solid 6"+. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: 1-3" is just fine by me Agreed. Up to this morning, I figured this was likely a 2-4” event. Maybe a narrow stripe would get a bit more. Today looks more like 1-3”. So be it. Hopefully we don’t get too much more suppression by the northern stream. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 This is basically a clipper IMO. Reminds me of the old Travelers Advisory. 1-3 with jackpots of 2-4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 41 minutes ago, mattie g said: I'd be really happy with a few inches after yesterday. I didn't have a chance to get out and enjoy it much yesterday, so some cold powder on top of yesterday's snowfall on a cold Friday in early January would be awesome! Me too! I didn’t get to enjoy it either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I think perspective is important for expectations here. Yesterday was a VERY vigorous shortwave. I mean look at that thing. Going neg exactly where we want it. Upper levels were very dynamic. A lot to like right there for potential good snowfall. This is Fri's: If you focus just on surface maps you'd think this storm is similar because of the track and accum snow. But are they similar where it really counts? Not even close imo. We don't know exactly how the shortwave is going to look yet. Could easily be sharper/stronger. But it won't be nearly as vigorous as the one that just went thru. For that reason alone, reasonable expectations should be front and center but I kinda doubt they will be. Lol Hello there, Chill! I hope you are doing well these days. Anyhow...that's a good contrast you show there between yesterday's system and the potential for end of this week. As you say, not even close. All the same, I certainly won't be upset at 1-3" of cold powder late Thursday night into early Friday! The timing, regardless of exactly how much falls, is also going to be pretty bad in terms of traffic and commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 10 minutes ago, Fozz said: I will not take this. You’ll get nothing and like it Spaulding 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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