jayyy Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 The gfs actually gives Baltimore and it’s nearby suburbs more snow than Winchester. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 5 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Thomas is great. The purple fiddle is a cool spot! Tip Top Coffee too! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 The CMC is going to nice https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 6 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Thomas is great. The purple fiddle is a cool spot! 2 minutes ago, gunny23 said: We want to head out to Canaan tonight but I don't think we could get on the road before 6:30 - might make for a rough drive. 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Spine of the Apps from Garrett down to Snowshoe will be a great spot, but especially Davis and Snowshoe. I'm also going to check out Timberline... never skied there before but with their improvements it should be a fun experience. Although not everything is open, I think conditions should be great after tonight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 14 minutes ago, Fozz said: I've decided to go to Thomas, WV. It is near Davis and it should be a great spot for this storm. Watch out for hippies 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 8 minutes ago, jayyy said: The gfs actually gives Baltimore and it’s nearby suburbs more snow than Winchester. Interesting. Yeah, exciting isn’t it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 17 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: Just a FYI, the GFS also had Richmond getting 8-12” Monday’s storm and we didn’t even get close to that. Just throwing the caution warning out there for those hugging the GFS. Maybe it’s right for you guys though If you take the 10:1 maps as gospel, sure it might've looked like that, but Richmond was never getting 8-12" on any model if you looked at the details. You were in the mix zone for hours. That all gets counted as snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Yeah, exciting isn’t it It’s 1 model. The rest don’t. Think you’ll be alright up there friend. We’ve seen only 1 storm this year - can’t win em all. Last year, we were the ones cashing each storm as the 95 corridor saw zilch all season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Some/many/most of us have realized that there’s going to be a middle finger screw zone somewhere with this storm as the energy transfers to the coast and the precip to the west weakens before the coastal enhancement sets up. And we’ve been saying it could be through our region. Seems like there are two places the models are placing it so far this morning: 1. DC northeastward towards Lancaster Co PA. 2. Philly northeastward through the NYC area. Hrrr and Euro are in camp 1. 3k NAM and FV3 are in camp 2. Haven’t looked close enough to try and tease out what the precise differences are driving that. RGEM in camp 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 28 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: This is making it over the mountains, right? The GFS certainly thinks so. Maybe the model is just simplifying things. Big blob of precip headed our way, cold enough = snow! If only it were that easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, TSG said: If you take the 10:1 maps as gospel, sure it might've looked like that, but Richmond was never getting 8-12" on any model if you looked at the details. You were in the mix zone for hours. That all gets counted as snow. And unless something has changed, the GFS still counts sleet as massive snow on the 10:1 right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 HDRPS pretty decent. 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Meh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: HDRPS pretty decent. Pretty good consensus among Euro, RGEM, NAMs, HRDRPS for ~0.2 QPF in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: HDRPS pretty decent. That's camp 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 30 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The thing is..the GFS is global. I'd be kinda cautious vs the mesos Globals are too broad brush for narrowly defined sensible wx in the short range. Euro has the resolution but it's still a global. OTOH- mesos try to be "too accurate" with exact placement of subtle variations of qpf/bands etc. I know you know this but just reminding everyone that all decent models are useful in the short range but no one model is deadly. Just blend and apply climo. Rarely fails. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 6 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: The GFS certainly thinks so. Maybe the model is just simplifying things. Big blob of precip headed our way, cold enough = snow! If only it were that easy Perhaps it is… so long as the MSLP stays in tact and tracks SW to NE to our south. Man, oh man, that’d be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 17 minutes ago, Interstate said: The CMC is going to nice https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Certainly wouldn't kick it out of bed. Seems to snow hard over 95 for several hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 18 minutes ago, Interstate said: The CMC is going to nice https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Not sure I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 About to start my journey to Snowshoe for this one. Hopefully the roads are snow covered 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: HDRPS pretty decent. By what standard? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: By what standard? mine 12z CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 7 minutes ago, jayyy said: Perhaps it is… so long as the MSLP stays in tact and tracks SW to NE to our south. Man, oh man, that’d be nice That’s really the unicorn solution for us right now. Get the precip to come in from SW to NE and hold on a couple extra hours before the coastal takes over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Globals are too broad brush for narrowly defined sensible wx in the short range. Euro has the resolution but it's still a global. OTOH- mesos try to be "too accurate" with exact placement of subtle variations of qpf/bands etc. I know you know this but just reminding everyone that all decent models are useful in the short range but no one model is deadly. Just blend and apply climo. Rarely fails. Precisely! Each model has its relative strengths and weaknessess and some do better in a given setup, but there’s no model we can point to as gospel here or in any setup really. If the NAM GFS Euro HRRR RGEM show 1”, 2”, 3”, 4”, and 5” in your backyard respectively — I’d say 2-3” is pretty good bet. We of course all want to lean on the snowiest solution in any setup, but how often does that pan out? We typically see one model nail track, another model nail thermo profile, etc. Find a reliable model blend and know your climo. Good rules of thumb for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: mine 12z CMC #mappyjackpot 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: mine 12z CMC Eh, it's fine I guess, at least for those of us just west of Baltimore. But not great for everyone else. Certainly looked better just looking at the animation. Would have expected some totals around half a foot with what looked like very heavy rates for a few hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Globals are too broad brush for narrowly defined sensible wx in the short range. Euro has the resolution but it's still a global. OTOH- mesos try to be "too accurate" with exact placement of subtle variations of qpf/bands etc. I know you know this but just reminding everyone that all decent models are useful in the short range but no one model is deadly. Just blend and apply climo. Rarely fails. Obvious but true, and we tend to forget it. I hate to be a debbie downer but in situations like these, we tend to underperform. Not saying that will happen, but I'm looking for 1-3" here. You never know--either the WAA can remain stronger for longer, or the coastal can develop earlier than expected. But when you're trying to thread that needle, you're trying to thread that needle. Then you're trying to catch a decent band either way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Globals are too broad brush for narrowly defined sensible wx in the short range. Euro has the resolution but it's still a global. OTOH- mesos try to be "too accurate" with exact placement of subtle variations of qpf/bands etc. I know you know this but just reminding everyone that all decent models are useful in the short range but no one model is deadly. Just blend and apply climo. Rarely fails. So when one model "nails it" its really more luck than it being that good. Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 15z HRRR looks great for Davis/Deep Creek. 12"+....great for the ski resorts. Fozz will have good time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 40 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS Looks perfectly reasonable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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