rjvanals Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 GFS is still faster than other guidance but more of a 3-5” across metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Just now, chris21 said: GFS still holding quite steady. Wow. I was thinking the same thing. Pushed its poker chips all in on a nut flush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 DT might be hugging the GFS this time around. 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 This is making it over the mountains, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 53 minutes ago, HighStakes said: You're on a bit of a panic this morning. Worst case scenario you get at least 2. I know the shutout on Monday was tough but your move to Monkton will benefit you in the long run. If you live in the DMV, being in the northern portion of the CWA will benefit you 8/10 times, if not more, on average. Just been a wonky start to the season. Moving up to Union Bridge from south of I-70 has been night and day for me the past few seasons. HighStakes is right - it’ll even out - and then some. Just continue to be patient Tonight’s setup is much better for WV/ NVA & NE MD and points NE, than it is for the 95 corridor and central MD. As Bob Chill has warned us of a multitude of times, these types of storms do not typically end with the DC to BAL corridor / central MD jackpotting. The mountains eat up precip from the initial wave and the coastal gets going too late, leaving the middle of the CWA relatively dry in the middle, sandwiched between the two areas of best lift. We won’t know until the storms overhead, as models don’t always get the timing / placement right… but latest trends aren’t the greatest for 95. Models are bringing in the precip later And with less of a punch - neither of those scenarios help their outcome. If you’re expecting warning level snowfall, it’s more than likely you’ll be disappointed. However, if you’re cool with a solid few inches and a few hours of rippage, you’ll be satisfied. NWS’s call for 2-4” areawide with 5-6” lollies is a perfect call, IMO. No model will pinpoint exactly where these bands setup shop. It’s best to be realistic in these setups. Clskins area will see more snow than Baltimore or owings mills or dc 9/10 times in these setups. If you want warning snowfall in this setup, hug the GFS tight. It keeps the initial slug of moisture together, keeps the column cool, etc. 3-6” areawide. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 That being said - the GFS just said F U and is sticking to its guns. DT is definitely hugging the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: DT might be hugging the GFS this time around. Thats pretty bullish even if hugging the GFS which he often knocks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 The thing is..the GFS is global. I'd be kinda cautious vs the mesos 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: DT might be hugging the GFS this time around. This is going to be quite the fail. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: The thing is..the GFS is global. I'd be kinda cautious vs the mesos + a million Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 5 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: This is making it over the mountains, right? You guys at least have the opportunity for having moisture thrown back your way. I have to pray this almost takes more of an east northeast trajectory otherwise we’re toast down here. And by the looks of the mesos don’t have the warm and fuzzies about over performing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: The thing is..the GFS is global. I'd be kinda cautious vs the mesos Exactly. And I think PSU made the point that, when it comes to globals, the Euro is much better picking out the banding features than the GFS. I pray the GFS is right, but I prayed it was right just before the last storm and I was sadly mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 The more phasing becomes a factor the less well we do. I think this is more of a system that just passes by to our south moving wsw-ene and keeps its precip shield intact as it moves over mountains and south of our area from west to east. If we get stuck with it dying to our west and jumping to coast and reintensfying then DC proper is in trouble . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Just now, osfan24 said: Exactly. And I think PSU made the point that, when it comes to globals, the Euro is much better picking out the banding features than the GFS. I pray the GFS is right, but I prayed it was right just before the last storm and I was sadly mistaken. Maybe the upgraded GFS is better at that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 My final call for Winchester is 1-2”. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 WB 12Z GFS 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Exactly. And I think PSU made the point that, when it comes to globals, the Euro is much better picking out the banding features than the GFS. I pray the GFS is right, but I prayed it was right just before the last storm and I was sadly mistaken. Same here. GFS showed a better northern edge that turned out to be pure fantasy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Exactly. And I think PSU made the point that, when it comes to globals, the Euro is much better picking out the banding features than the GFS. I pray the GFS is right, but I prayed it was right just before the last storm and I was sadly mistaken. GFS had me and your old hood nailed perfectly this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 11 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: You really measure snow to the hundredth? Lol. No? Sorry for not measuring correctly. .25 and .3. Will fix it. Sorry to not meet your standards. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS Probably just noise, but it did seem to adjust that band very slightly west again, and it also slightly cut the qpf for that band as well. Think we were looking at 5-7 from that on the 6z run. Looks more like 4-5+ on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA Mad Man Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: This is going to be quite the fail. DT's on a roll..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I've decided to go to Thomas, WV. It is near Davis and it should be a great spot for this storm. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Nice vertical velocities on the GFS 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Just a FYI, the GFS also had Richmond getting 8-12” Monday’s storm and we didn’t even get close to that. Just throwing the caution warning out there for those hugging the GFS. Maybe it’s right for you guys though 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Just now, Fozz said: I've decided to go to Thomas, WV. It is near Davis and it should be a great spot for this storm. Thomas is great. The purple fiddle is a cool spot! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 7 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Exactly. And I think PSU made the point that, when it comes to globals, the Euro is much better picking out the banding features than the GFS. I pray the GFS is right, but I prayed it was right just before the last storm and I was sadly mistaken. The gfs actually did quite well handling that last storm… it was just a bit off on where that sharp cutoff would be. It had it further NW. otherwise, it handled the evolution of the system pretty well. Missed on the totals near I-70 and Richmond though With that being said, this setup is much different. Meso models are much more important for this type of setup when we’re talking about banding, transfer of energy to the coast, etc. GFS does well when it comes to handling one main area of low pressure tracking to our south. Not so much when we’re talking about two distinct areas of precip / lift and the interaction between them. The GFS tends to oversimplify things and see things much more uniformly, missing the nuances of miller b type storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gunny23 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, Fozz said: I've decided to go to Thomas, WV. It is near Davis and it should be a great spot for this storm. We want to head out to Canaan tonight but I don't think we could get on the road before 6:30 - might make for a rough drive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, Fozz said: I've decided to go to Thomas, WV. It is near Davis and it should be a great spot for this storm. Spine of the Apps from Garrett down to Snowshoe will be a great spot, but especially Davis and Snowshoe. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I think we are losing Tomer Burg....his homemade CAM model says DC-NY snowhole....personally i'm waiting to see what Cynthia Frelunds in-house model says before I jump 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 17 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: DT might be hugging the GFS this time around. Wow. Last time he called the GFS totals total BS and his map was way under for some areas. I would love if he would be right this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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