Interstate Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 27 minutes ago, stormtracker said: What would this forum be without it? A few thousand million less posts probably. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: upon further review, temperatures are an issue for the beltway and close burbs this run. still probably a good run, but a flag. Some of the previous runs had a more immediate burst of moderate precip in the DC area to start while on the 12z NAMs it had a bit of light precip to start. DPs are still low and 12z RGEM does look better for DC area north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 13 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: 10 inches vs. .55 on the season will do that And it will even out over time. There will be some snow that will fall and that will be nice to see. Hope you can enjoy what does fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Pretty dangerous panel on the RGEM. Thankfully, the band in the west seems to sort of get absorbed by the coastal and still swings through the metro, but one could see a screw zone developing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 54 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Thanks for this list of unlikely places that have crushed the snow totals for the Hereford Zone so far this year. Hello darkness my old friend... Sorry buddy. Didn’t me to bring up a trauma. I’m right there with ya 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 45 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 3k looks really good for those of us in the northern Shen Valley. Really nice ratios at the start. And the air is moist enough that I dont think we see much virga. Snow should come in like a wall. If we end up with .4 precip we will break 5 inches. Couple of plots at onset for Winchester: You also predicted we’d get 2-4” Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 The WPC still has this as their 10th percentile map, which is pretty surprising IMO. Not complaining, just tough to see it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Pretty dangerous panel on the RGEM. Thankfully, the band in the west seems to sort of get absorbed by the coastal and still swings through the metro, but one could see a screw zone developing. It’s the same model that predicted 50+ inches for some last January. That should never leave your thoughts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: The WPC still has this as their 10th percentile map, which is pretty surprising IMO. Not complaining, just tough to see it. Maybe they are just riding the model (GFS) that shows the most snow. I can relate. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I can rationalize not getting snow tomorrow because I have a dentist appt in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 it's nowcast time... https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=09&length=12&dim=1 ...until the 12z globals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 42 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: 10 inches vs. .55 on the season will do that You really measure snow to the hundredth? Lol. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Where the NAM has the finger... the GFS says FU NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 GFS still holding quite steady. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 GFS is still faster than other guidance but more of a 3-5” across metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Just now, chris21 said: GFS still holding quite steady. Wow. I was thinking the same thing. Pushed its poker chips all in on a nut flush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 DT might be hugging the GFS this time around. 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 This is making it over the mountains, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 53 minutes ago, HighStakes said: You're on a bit of a panic this morning. Worst case scenario you get at least 2. I know the shutout on Monday was tough but your move to Monkton will benefit you in the long run. If you live in the DMV, being in the northern portion of the CWA will benefit you 8/10 times, if not more, on average. Just been a wonky start to the season. Moving up to Union Bridge from south of I-70 has been night and day for me the past few seasons. HighStakes is right - it’ll even out - and then some. Just continue to be patient Tonight’s setup is much better for WV/ NVA & NE MD and points NE, than it is for the 95 corridor and central MD. As Bob Chill has warned us of a multitude of times, these types of storms do not typically end with the DC to BAL corridor / central MD jackpotting. The mountains eat up precip from the initial wave and the coastal gets going too late, leaving the middle of the CWA relatively dry in the middle, sandwiched between the two areas of best lift. We won’t know until the storms overhead, as models don’t always get the timing / placement right… but latest trends aren’t the greatest for 95. Models are bringing in the precip later And with less of a punch - neither of those scenarios help their outcome. If you’re expecting warning level snowfall, it’s more than likely you’ll be disappointed. However, if you’re cool with a solid few inches and a few hours of rippage, you’ll be satisfied. NWS’s call for 2-4” areawide with 5-6” lollies is a perfect call, IMO. No model will pinpoint exactly where these bands setup shop. It’s best to be realistic in these setups. Clskins area will see more snow than Baltimore or owings mills or dc 9/10 times in these setups. If you want warning snowfall in this setup, hug the GFS tight. It keeps the initial slug of moisture together, keeps the column cool, etc. 3-6” areawide. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 That being said - the GFS just said F U and is sticking to its guns. DT is definitely hugging the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: DT might be hugging the GFS this time around. Thats pretty bullish even if hugging the GFS which he often knocks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 The thing is..the GFS is global. I'd be kinda cautious vs the mesos 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: DT might be hugging the GFS this time around. This is going to be quite the fail. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: The thing is..the GFS is global. I'd be kinda cautious vs the mesos + a million Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 5 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: This is making it over the mountains, right? You guys at least have the opportunity for having moisture thrown back your way. I have to pray this almost takes more of an east northeast trajectory otherwise we’re toast down here. And by the looks of the mesos don’t have the warm and fuzzies about over performing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: The thing is..the GFS is global. I'd be kinda cautious vs the mesos Exactly. And I think PSU made the point that, when it comes to globals, the Euro is much better picking out the banding features than the GFS. I pray the GFS is right, but I prayed it was right just before the last storm and I was sadly mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 The more phasing becomes a factor the less well we do. I think this is more of a system that just passes by to our south moving wsw-ene and keeps its precip shield intact as it moves over mountains and south of our area from west to east. If we get stuck with it dying to our west and jumping to coast and reintensfying then DC proper is in trouble . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Just now, osfan24 said: Exactly. And I think PSU made the point that, when it comes to globals, the Euro is much better picking out the banding features than the GFS. I pray the GFS is right, but I prayed it was right just before the last storm and I was sadly mistaken. Maybe the upgraded GFS is better at that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 My final call for Winchester is 1-2”. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 WB 12Z GFS 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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