clskinsfan Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 3k looks really good for those of us in the northern Shen Valley. Really nice ratios at the start. And the air is moist enough that I dont think we see much virga. Snow should come in like a wall. If we end up with .4 precip we will break 5 inches. Couple of plots at onset for Winchester: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Hmmm. Dont know why but for some reason it posted last nights plots. But that is not what I clicked. I guess you will have to take my word for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Some/many/most of us have realized that there’s going to be a middle finger screw zone somewhere with this storm as the energy transfers to the coast and the precip to the west weakens before the coastal enhancement sets up. And we’ve been saying it could be through our region. Seems like there are two places the models are placing it so far this morning: 1. DC northeastward towards Lancaster Co PA. 2. Philly northeastward through the NYC area. Hrrr and Euro are in camp 1. 3k NAM and FV3 are in camp 2. Haven’t looked close enough to try and tease out what the precise differences are driving that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 9 minutes ago, H2O said: ahhhhhhhh....the model run freak outs. Oh how I have not missed thee What would this forum be without it? A few thousand less posts probably. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 17 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: awesome. keep the groin kicks coming. add in some benny hill music too, for proper effect. friend, we will see snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Some/many/most of us have realized that there’s going to be a middle finger screw zone somewhere with this storm as the energy transfers to the coast and the precip to the west weakens before the coastal enhancement sets up. Seems like there are two places the models are placing it so far this morning:1. DC northeastward towards Lancaster Co PA. 2. Philly northeastward through the NYC area. Hrrr and Euro are in camp 1. 3k NAM and FV3 are in camp 2. Haven’t looked close enough to try and tease out what the precise differences are driving that. where I live. Long live the curse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Some of you all are making Ji seem normal 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: where I live. Long live the curse. You're on a bit of a panic this morning. Worst case scenario you get at least 2. I know the shutout on Monday was tough but your move to Monkton will benefit you in the long run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 7 minutes ago, mappy said: friend, we will see snow. You need to deliver to him some cookies n milk to cheer the mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 44.0F and baro rising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, H2O said: 44.0F and baro rising The rain will melt the rest of your snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 5 minutes ago, H2O said: Some of you all are making Ji seem normal 10 inches vs. .55 on the season will do that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 33 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Hi-Res FV3 looks nice. upon further review, temperatures are an issue for the beltway and close burbs this run. still probably a good run, but a flag. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: 10 inches vs. .55 on the season will do that I hear you. I’ve been in Owings mills since 2018. Columbia and Dc area have had big snowfalls in that time. The most here was 5-6 inches and that took a three to four day span last year lol. Places North, south, east and west have all had bigger single storm totals in that time. Ever storm has practically underachieved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 6 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: 10 inches vs. .55 on the season will do that you gotta let that shit go man. we are going to see snow. Any amount is better than what we currently have. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 RGEM continues the trend shown by some of the other short range models -- doesn't really start the precip in DC metro until about 1am as the developing coastal robs the moisture. It does manage to come down pretty hot and heavy for three good hours from 2-5am though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 27 minutes ago, stormtracker said: What would this forum be without it? A few thousand million less posts probably. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: upon further review, temperatures are an issue for the beltway and close burbs this run. still probably a good run, but a flag. Some of the previous runs had a more immediate burst of moderate precip in the DC area to start while on the 12z NAMs it had a bit of light precip to start. DPs are still low and 12z RGEM does look better for DC area north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 13 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: 10 inches vs. .55 on the season will do that And it will even out over time. There will be some snow that will fall and that will be nice to see. Hope you can enjoy what does fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Pretty dangerous panel on the RGEM. Thankfully, the band in the west seems to sort of get absorbed by the coastal and still swings through the metro, but one could see a screw zone developing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 54 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Thanks for this list of unlikely places that have crushed the snow totals for the Hereford Zone so far this year. Hello darkness my old friend... Sorry buddy. Didn’t me to bring up a trauma. I’m right there with ya 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 45 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 3k looks really good for those of us in the northern Shen Valley. Really nice ratios at the start. And the air is moist enough that I dont think we see much virga. Snow should come in like a wall. If we end up with .4 precip we will break 5 inches. Couple of plots at onset for Winchester: You also predicted we’d get 2-4” Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 The WPC still has this as their 10th percentile map, which is pretty surprising IMO. Not complaining, just tough to see it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Pretty dangerous panel on the RGEM. Thankfully, the band in the west seems to sort of get absorbed by the coastal and still swings through the metro, but one could see a screw zone developing. It’s the same model that predicted 50+ inches for some last January. That should never leave your thoughts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: The WPC still has this as their 10th percentile map, which is pretty surprising IMO. Not complaining, just tough to see it. Maybe they are just riding the model (GFS) that shows the most snow. I can relate. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I can rationalize not getting snow tomorrow because I have a dentist appt in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 it's nowcast time... https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=09&length=12&dim=1 ...until the 12z globals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 42 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: 10 inches vs. .55 on the season will do that You really measure snow to the hundredth? Lol. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Where the NAM has the finger... the GFS says FU NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 GFS still holding quite steady. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now