Weather Will Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 WB 3K NAM. Did shift NW this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 ^ yes please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 We'll see, but it does look like the GFS might indeed be the outlier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 10 minutes ago, rjvanals said: Here's the map on pivotal Considering it's already 40 degrees at 9am that doesn't seem unrealistic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 The nam was initialized with a stronger low off the Florida coast. This tracks out to sea and takes some of the precip with it. Edit: not initialized but the low is stronger by the time it's off the carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 i like my spot with this system. the northwest trend makes perfect sense given the entire setup and how much further north the upper level energy is this time around compared to monday. the only things i'd be concerned about for the entire forum east of the apps is that downsloping is a thing with weaker systems (though that doesn't seem to be the case with this one). with that said, anyone who grew up in the 80s/90s in this area knows exactly what i'm talking about (though obviously models have improved in that regard). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Hi-Res FV3 looks nice. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: We are region centered of course but the last week across parts of Tennessee and I suppose northern Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia has been pretty epic. Thanks for this list of unlikely places that have crushed the snow totals for the Hereford Zone so far this year. Hello darkness my old friend... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Hi-Res FV3 looks nice. Looks like GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 16 minutes ago, rjvanals said: Here's the map on pivotal Yeah, that 10 min of rain might wet the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: Looks like GFS It’s “related” to the GFS so not surprising 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 57 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 12z HRRR has the dead zone near 95. <0.10" QPF in parts of Fairfax and MoCo. This seems like an extreme solution, but puts a lower bound on the event. awesome. keep the groin kicks coming. add in some benny hill music too, for proper effect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It’s “related” to the GFS so not surprising Correct. It's initialized with the previous GFS cycle and has a fairly similar overall configuration (with higher resolution). 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 ahhhhhhhh....the model run freak outs. Oh how I have not missed thee 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 3k looks really good for those of us in the northern Shen Valley. Really nice ratios at the start. And the air is moist enough that I dont think we see much virga. Snow should come in like a wall. If we end up with .4 precip we will break 5 inches. Couple of plots at onset for Winchester: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Hmmm. Dont know why but for some reason it posted last nights plots. But that is not what I clicked. I guess you will have to take my word for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Some/many/most of us have realized that there’s going to be a middle finger screw zone somewhere with this storm as the energy transfers to the coast and the precip to the west weakens before the coastal enhancement sets up. And we’ve been saying it could be through our region. Seems like there are two places the models are placing it so far this morning: 1. DC northeastward towards Lancaster Co PA. 2. Philly northeastward through the NYC area. Hrrr and Euro are in camp 1. 3k NAM and FV3 are in camp 2. Haven’t looked close enough to try and tease out what the precise differences are driving that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 9 minutes ago, H2O said: ahhhhhhhh....the model run freak outs. Oh how I have not missed thee What would this forum be without it? A few thousand less posts probably. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 17 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: awesome. keep the groin kicks coming. add in some benny hill music too, for proper effect. friend, we will see snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Some/many/most of us have realized that there’s going to be a middle finger screw zone somewhere with this storm as the energy transfers to the coast and the precip to the west weakens before the coastal enhancement sets up. Seems like there are two places the models are placing it so far this morning:1. DC northeastward towards Lancaster Co PA. 2. Philly northeastward through the NYC area. Hrrr and Euro are in camp 1. 3k NAM and FV3 are in camp 2. Haven’t looked close enough to try and tease out what the precise differences are driving that. where I live. Long live the curse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Some of you all are making Ji seem normal 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: where I live. Long live the curse. You're on a bit of a panic this morning. Worst case scenario you get at least 2. I know the shutout on Monday was tough but your move to Monkton will benefit you in the long run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 7 minutes ago, mappy said: friend, we will see snow. You need to deliver to him some cookies n milk to cheer the mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 44.0F and baro rising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, H2O said: 44.0F and baro rising The rain will melt the rest of your snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 5 minutes ago, H2O said: Some of you all are making Ji seem normal 10 inches vs. .55 on the season will do that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 33 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Hi-Res FV3 looks nice. upon further review, temperatures are an issue for the beltway and close burbs this run. still probably a good run, but a flag. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: 10 inches vs. .55 on the season will do that I hear you. I’ve been in Owings mills since 2018. Columbia and Dc area have had big snowfalls in that time. The most here was 5-6 inches and that took a three to four day span last year lol. Places North, south, east and west have all had bigger single storm totals in that time. Ever storm has practically underachieved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 6 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: 10 inches vs. .55 on the season will do that you gotta let that shit go man. we are going to see snow. Any amount is better than what we currently have. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 RGEM continues the trend shown by some of the other short range models -- doesn't really start the precip in DC metro until about 1am as the developing coastal robs the moisture. It does manage to come down pretty hot and heavy for three good hours from 2-5am though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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