RevWarReenactor Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 NWS is all on board with the last minute GFS runs. I don't buy it. Euro makes more sense with how these usually pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: GFS has been great last 3 years. Kuchera is never great yet people still post that. -RSC Is that a haiku? Not sure I agree with Kuchera not being great -- I think its a good tool to use to evaluate but snowmaps (10:1, snow depth change, Kuchera) shouldn't be taken verbatim but rather evaluated as one piece of overall guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Possibly... but its going to pack a punch I hope lol https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0036.html I like this part. Through 12-16Z, strengthening lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, beneath increasingly divergent mid/upper flow appears likely to contribute to a gradually consolidating and expanding area of moderate snow across a large portion of the Mid South. It appears that the heaviest snow may become focused just ahead of a frontal wave, across parts of western into middle Tennessee, where models suggest that lift will become maximized in the dendritic growth zone, near the nose of the better low-level Gulf moisture return (including precipitable water on the order of .50-.70 inches). This may include a couple hour period with snow rates of 1-2+ inches per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Is that a haiku? Not sure I agree with Kuchera not being great -- I think its a good tool to use to evaluate but snowmaps (10:1, snow depth change, Kuchera) shouldn't be taken verbatim but rather evaluated as one piece of overall guidance.Agree. In an event like this Kuchera may even be low.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 8 hours ago, RDM said: That's right over our old house in W-Spfld at Rolling and Old Keene Mill... Maybe we should move back there from Vienna??? Great little area…why not? I know that intersection well… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 7 minutes ago, nj2va said: Is that a haiku? Not sure I agree with Kuchera not being great -- I think its a good tool to use to evaluate but snowmaps (10:1, snow depth change, Kuchera) shouldn't be taken verbatim but rather evaluated as one piece of overall guidance. That's why I like kuchera. Comparison to the mundane 10:1 can provide some really good insight into a lot of small details that affect our ratios. Any time kuchera is over 10:1, it's a very useful indication of good snow growth, good column, and good surface. You need all 3 to exceed 10:1 here usually. When kuchera has high totals but surface is running the razor edge with temps, I'll toss it. Same with some sort of warm nose anywhere near the DGZ. High ratio killer even if kuchera says don't worry. Like all wx model output, useful tools galore but if you don't understand how to properly use them, being useful flips to harmful with decision making. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 No one look at the 12z HRRR would be my recommendation. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 12z HRRR has the dead zone near 95. <0.10" QPF in parts of Fairfax and MoCo. This seems like an extreme solution, but puts a lower bound on the event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: No one look at the 12z HRRR would be my recommendation. Looks like the Euro. The GFS is on an island of its own right now. 1 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Just now, osfan24 said: Looks like the Euro. The GFS is on an island of its own right now. Huh? The 06z Euro was 2-4 for just about everyone. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 If it's any consolation in regards to the stripe of 0.5" some of that is lost to rain. Take what you can get I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Huh? The 06z Euro was 2-4 for just about everyone. I meant with the banding placement. It's obviously drier than the Euro, but we are parsing tenths of an inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 5 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, H2O said: Talk about such drastic differences for 12-16 hours out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 No one look at the 12z HRRR would be my recommendation. Look at the nam3k instead 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: Talk about such drastic differences for 12-16 hours out lol Feels like we've said this for the last few winters now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Well 12z NAM is going west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Euro/NAM combo used to be pretty deadly at this range, so let’s hope that’s the case here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Well 12z NAM is going west...It’s a 4 hour storm, but at least it’s heavy enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2-4 for most on 12z NAM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Hrrr could be right. Looks just like a typical outcome for this kind of deal. At least it's kinda juicy leading in. Sometimes these shortwaves are dry AF to our SW and we wait for radar to "blossom"... my least favorite activity with NS systems. Thing is, these types of storms, no matter how many models show otherwise, have the potential to do exactly what the hrrr shows in real time. I have a good memory. And they aren't good memories for my yard. I'm not a deb, neg Nance, or wet blanket. If we really respect this hobby as a learning experience, accepting the possibility of the hrrr solution should be second nature. I can easily see "the middle" getting over 4" or just 1". Won't know until it's over 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Couple minor things different on the 12z Nams bs 6z: both have a slightly later start time and also have a brief period of rain before the switch to inside the beltway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Couple minor things different on the 12z Nams bs 6z: both have a slightly later start time and also have a brief period of rain before the switch to inside the beltway agree with point A, but not seeing the rain on these maps: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: agree with point A, but not seeing the rain on these maps: Shows up on pivotal w precip types. 12z 3kn also shows the Parr Ridge jackpot so it may be right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: agree with point A, but not seeing the rain on these maps: There's not a drop of rain near or inside the beltway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: agree with point A, but not seeing the rain on these maps: Yeah think getting in rain in this setup would be difficult. Maybe some mushy flakes, and not for long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: agree with point A, but not seeing the rain on these maps: One quick note: maps like these for any models except RAP/HRRR are completely derived by the site that displays them, and they involve a lot of estimating and interpolating. Only the RAP/HRRR have explicit totals by type. That said, most of the guidance now shows at most a very brief period of rain at the start. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: There's not a drop of rain near or inside the beltway Here's the map on pivotal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Pretty similar result on the NAM twins for dc metro but they cut back a bit SE of town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Here's a tip. Check soundings 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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