H2O Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: It’s a Vice Regent winter and I do not like that 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Think the euro has been the most consistent with this one. Could be a bad memory though lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Think the euro has been the most consistent with this one. Could be a bad memory though lol It has hosed my area each time so , yeah. Consistent it has been. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Think the euro has been the most consistent with this one. Could be a bad memory though lol The most consistent in giving your area good snow...your memory is just fine lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 We are region centered of course but the last week across parts of Tennessee and I suppose northern Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia has been pretty epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Outside of the western highlands this is still probably a 2-4 deal for most. Any banding that develops would be pretty brief given the relatively short duration of this event overall. Those areas would probably see an additional inch or 2. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, H2O said: If the GFS wins again I think we are really looking at end of times I don't remember what the Euro showed in the final couple of runs leading up to the last storm, but did the GFS really win? It lead the way days leading into the storm that it would be coming much farther north and west than what most models showed and so it definitely won in that respect, but for my particular location, the totals were way overdone and it seemed like it had the general snow shield too far northwest than reality. I thought the 3k NAM did the best job showing the location of the cutoff, if I'm remembering correctly. I'd love for the GFS to be right because it has that band right over me, but no other model is showing that to be the location of the band, and the GFS doesn't seem like the best model to use for that kind of detail anyway. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Think the euro has been the most consistent with this one. Could be a bad memory though lol IDK... The GFS and EURO have both been consistent with with their outputs... just different outputs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 My forecast for Winchester is 2-3”. That is a reasonable expectation and in all likelihood the most probable outcome. I’d also expect earlier start time and end time from what is modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 My backyard final call 3.3" good luck all...just like Yeoman I have a busy work day today and an early nap to prepare for the 3 hours of snow overnight. Enjoy the melting today 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: My forecast for Winchester is 2-3”. That is a reasonable expectation and in all likelihood the most probable outcome. I’d also expect earlier start time and end time from what is modeled. Good luck up that way. I feel a dud coming down in my neck of the woods. Starting off in the low 40s and the main piece of precip is going to traverse WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 18 minutes ago, snowfan said: That’s a gfs map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 When’s Chuck gonna post a dot matrix northern hemisphere map and tell us this snow ain’t happening again? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 This thing is booking it...no surprise there but western areas may see first flakes before the sun sets. Weenie radar with returns reaching out for SW WV already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 7 minutes ago, poolz1 said: This thing is booking it...no surprise there but western areas may see first flakes before the sun sets. Weenie radar with returns reaching out for SW WV already. Possibly... but its going to pack a punch I hope lol https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0036.html 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 GFS has been great last 3 years. Kuchera is never great yet people still post that. -RSC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 NWS is all on board with the last minute GFS runs. I don't buy it. Euro makes more sense with how these usually pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: GFS has been great last 3 years. Kuchera is never great yet people still post that. -RSC Is that a haiku? Not sure I agree with Kuchera not being great -- I think its a good tool to use to evaluate but snowmaps (10:1, snow depth change, Kuchera) shouldn't be taken verbatim but rather evaluated as one piece of overall guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Possibly... but its going to pack a punch I hope lol https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0036.html I like this part. Through 12-16Z, strengthening lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, beneath increasingly divergent mid/upper flow appears likely to contribute to a gradually consolidating and expanding area of moderate snow across a large portion of the Mid South. It appears that the heaviest snow may become focused just ahead of a frontal wave, across parts of western into middle Tennessee, where models suggest that lift will become maximized in the dendritic growth zone, near the nose of the better low-level Gulf moisture return (including precipitable water on the order of .50-.70 inches). This may include a couple hour period with snow rates of 1-2+ inches per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Is that a haiku? Not sure I agree with Kuchera not being great -- I think its a good tool to use to evaluate but snowmaps (10:1, snow depth change, Kuchera) shouldn't be taken verbatim but rather evaluated as one piece of overall guidance.Agree. In an event like this Kuchera may even be low.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 8 hours ago, RDM said: That's right over our old house in W-Spfld at Rolling and Old Keene Mill... Maybe we should move back there from Vienna??? Great little area…why not? I know that intersection well… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 7 minutes ago, nj2va said: Is that a haiku? Not sure I agree with Kuchera not being great -- I think its a good tool to use to evaluate but snowmaps (10:1, snow depth change, Kuchera) shouldn't be taken verbatim but rather evaluated as one piece of overall guidance. That's why I like kuchera. Comparison to the mundane 10:1 can provide some really good insight into a lot of small details that affect our ratios. Any time kuchera is over 10:1, it's a very useful indication of good snow growth, good column, and good surface. You need all 3 to exceed 10:1 here usually. When kuchera has high totals but surface is running the razor edge with temps, I'll toss it. Same with some sort of warm nose anywhere near the DGZ. High ratio killer even if kuchera says don't worry. Like all wx model output, useful tools galore but if you don't understand how to properly use them, being useful flips to harmful with decision making. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 No one look at the 12z HRRR would be my recommendation. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 12z HRRR has the dead zone near 95. <0.10" QPF in parts of Fairfax and MoCo. This seems like an extreme solution, but puts a lower bound on the event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: No one look at the 12z HRRR would be my recommendation. Looks like the Euro. The GFS is on an island of its own right now. 1 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Just now, osfan24 said: Looks like the Euro. The GFS is on an island of its own right now. Huh? The 06z Euro was 2-4 for just about everyone. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 If it's any consolation in regards to the stripe of 0.5" some of that is lost to rain. Take what you can get I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Huh? The 06z Euro was 2-4 for just about everyone. I meant with the banding placement. It's obviously drier than the Euro, but we are parsing tenths of an inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 5 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, H2O said: Talk about such drastic differences for 12-16 hours out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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