DDweatherman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I would gladly take that .4 in Smithsburg. Would probably translate into 5 to 7" with the expected ratios. Agreed here in Carroll Valley, I’ll echo that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I would gladly take that .4 in Smithsburg. Would probably translate into 5 to 7" with the expected ratios. Plus you have cold ground not to mention snow on snow, surface frigidization is in full play! Every snowflake will stick, from flake 1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, Jebman said: Plus you have cold ground not to mention snow on snow, surface frigidization is in full play! Every snowflake will stick, from flake 1. No snow on the ground for the NW crew unfortunately Jebman. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I'm not a fan of the HRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Super long range 00z HRRR QPF map shows the banding potential the Twitter Mets highlighted earlier. This run of the HRRR puts one basically right along I-95. I’d take this run in a heartbeat. The place between bands is a scary, scary place to be though. But I guess that’s what’s bound to happen to someone. Cross your fingers… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: The place between bands is a scary, scary place to be though. But I guess that’s what’s bound to happen to someone. Cross your fingers… Yeah, agree. At least we’ll have better than 10:1 ratios though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: The place between bands is a scary, scary place to be though. But I guess that’s what’s bound to happen to someone. Cross your fingers… Yea - that scares me. I'm right a the sw tip of the hole. Hope for everyone's sake who lives in that hole the transfer takes place in a better way that avoids any holes ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Yeah, agree. At least we’ll have better than 10:1 ratios though. In banding you will. In the subsidence zone between bands not likely. Typically you get bad snow growth in those zones and low ratios. So the ~.2 area is likely just ~2”. The .3-.35 area could be 5-6”. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 6 minutes ago, WVsnowlover said: No snow on the ground for the NW crew unfortunately Jebman. I am sorry about that, but you should get some from this system, as well as possibly from an anafrontal setup over the weekend or shortly thereafter. I am pulling hard for snow for the entire Washington Metropolitan Region this winter! This includes the northern and northwestern crews as well as the mountain areas such as Deep Creek Lake. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I’ll open the zoom at 9:20and we can watch the high resolution models come in. I don’t think there is much use in the Gfs/ggem at this point. We know the basic Synoptics and the euro is the only global with any chance of nailing banding features which is what we’re doing now. But I’m not staying up that late. Use same link. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I wouldn’t take the Hrrr banding locations overly seriously. 3k NAM and Euro had heavier precip in the location the Hrrr has the screw zone. It’s clear that the eastern shore and the far west crew will do best generally. Between NoVA, DC, and central MD there are going to be relative winners and losers. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 12k Nam looks to have scooted the band west from the coastal. Waiting on better maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: The place between bands is a scary, scary place to be though. But I guess that’s what’s bound to happen to someone. Cross your fingers… Ooof. Looks like I get the hairy pickle on that map. Can’t win them all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: I wouldn’t take the Hrrr banding locations overly seriously. 3k NAM and Euro had heavier precip in the location the Hrrr has the screw zone. It’s clear that the eastern shore and the far west crew will do best generally. Between NoVA, DC, and central MD there are going to be relative winners and losers. I probably wouldn’t take the exact location seriously until within 12 hours on any guidance. But in general we know the risk is high of that subsidence zone being somewhere through our area. But exactly where is a nowcast thing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 6 minutes ago, LP08 said: 12k Nam looks to have scooted the band west from the coastal. Waiting on better maps. It looks like a uniform 0.2”-0.25” through most of the area (outside mountains and far eastern areas) with exception of NE MD with 0.1”+. With image: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, nj2va said: It looks like a uniform 0.2”-0.25” through most of the area (outside mountains and far eastern areas) with exception of NE MD with 0.1”+. Closer to the coast is what I saw. Not much discernible difference other than that. Pretty distinct screw zone from NE Md up into souther pa like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 3k… 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Closer to the coast is what I saw. Not much discernible difference other than that. Pretty distinct screw zone from NE Md up into souther pa like you said. 3k is looking better. Higher QPF across the board. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Anyone got a link for the zoom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Just now, clskinsfan said: Anyone got a link for the zoom? Yea I’ll PM you now one sec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 We take. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I liked the 3k Nam out my way of course. Hug it for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 WB 3K NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Yea I’ll PM you now one sec. Can u send to me also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Yea I’ll PM you now one sec. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 NAM 3km is 0.3-0.4” for many of us, mostly within 4 hours. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Just now, MN Transplant said: NAM 3km is 0.3-0.4” for many of us, mostly within 4 hours. That would be ideal. Solid 3-6 inches with good ratios if that verifies. Sun angle should be good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: NAM 3km is 0.3-0.4” for many of us, mostly within 4 hours. I was gonna say it looks good based on the precip maps. I haven’t seen the snow map but nice run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: NAM 3km is 0.3-0.4” for many of us, mostly within 4 hours. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 one hell of a band in the NAM3. Looks like a freakin' squall line.... edit: Ninja'ed by @Deck Pic 15 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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