Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, wxtrix said: it’s not complicated. the majority of the public doesn’t like snow. lots of people have to go to work, no matter what. for them the higher end is a worst case scenario. the NWS serves the public, not weenies. This. For most people (even those who like snow), the "worst" case scenario would potentially cause serious travel issues, closures, etc. I also think most people might not be as familiar with what exactly a percentile (like 90th) necessarily means. Not much different than CWG using the terms "boom" or "bust" in addition to expected amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: "Reasonable Worst Case Scenario" WTF is that exactly? Accuracy by obfuscation? Goodness that's bad. Worst case by whose standards? Does that mean that's the minimum or maximum? I'd be embarrassed as a met to put that out. These maps are mainly for probabilistic usage for EM's and decision makers. They can be disseminated to the public to convey highest and lowest potentials, but that is typically not advised and we stick with the range of the 45-55th percentile outcomes with the 50% as the expected. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 21 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: "Reasonable Worst Case Scenario" WTF is that exactly? Accuracy by obfuscation? Goodness that's bad. Worst case by whose standards? Does that mean that's the minimum or maximum? I'd be embarrassed as a met to put that out. It's primarily used by DOTs and emergency management. NWS has partner focus groups to work on labeling and delivery of products to certain entities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: These maps are mainly for probabilistic usage for EM's and decision makers. They can be disseminated to the public to convey highest and lowest potentials, but that is typically not advised and we stick with the range of the 45-55th percentile outcomes with the 50% as the expected. So it's not for the general public that generally doesn't like snow. Thanks for clarifying! I guess it wasn't so simple. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: It's primarily used by DOTs and emergency management. NWS has partner focus groups to work on labeling and delivery of products to certain entities. If the message is confusing and requires an explanation, it's poorly worded. The inverse map doesn't say 'Best case scenario' but rather it says 'low end amount - 9 in 10 chance of higher.' It's bad but whatever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: If the message is confusing and requires an explanation, it's poorly worded. The inverse map doesn't say 'Best case scenario' but rather it says 'low end amount - 9 in 10 chance of higher.' It's bad but whatever. Just use CWG language prediction/boom/bust....that usually makes the weenies happy and less confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 16 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: Maybe this sounds silly, but how much of that moisture "barrier" is due to upsloping from the coastal plain to the fall line? Could the fall line actually be squeezing the limited moisture out from the coastal? Or is it just coincidental positioning? That's a 3-hr precip map, so it's just that by this point the low is moving off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 GFS is pretty tasty...except the dry slot is over Westminster so we know it's wrong 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: GFS is pretty tasty...except the dry slot is over Westminster so we know it's wrong Seasonal trend. We are good w that being the screw zone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 If I'm the N/W folks I'd take my chances on this one. Coastal influence on the QPF shield closer to the cities is looking more evident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: If we could get that MSLP to jog westward even a little, I think we'd be really happy. You can start to see the coastal enhancement on the 3k just as the storm get's going, that's what really ends up providing the nice totals D.C-east, from my not-so-expert analysis. Getting that a bit earlier/further west would be nice. Depends where you are. Near I95 east yea you want that coastal to get going. NW of there actually wants the banding from the upper level SW along the jet streak to hold together longer. As soon as the coastal fgen banding starts to crank it will cut off that band further NW. It’s not a coincidence that runs that have a better coastal band DC east screw over places like Winchester, Leesburg, Frederick, Westminster. 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: GFS is pretty tasty...except the dry slot is over Westminster so we know it's wrong It’s not crazy if it’s right about developing that coastal banding where it does. That would kill the SW associated band and put up here is a subsidence zone and yes that does happen. I do get fringed up here. It’s not that rare. Actually it DC is getting cold smoke it’s pretty common. It’s just more than made up for by all the times I get 6” and it’s raining in DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, Negnao said: 25-40 mile nw push. **** it, I want the blue 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: 25-40 mile nw push. **** it, I want the blue Lol you can pry it from my cold dead hands. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, Negnao said: We like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 6 minutes ago, Negnao said: Ack...Baltimore ain't gettin' the love this week...sheesh 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Probability of >4” pretty high in this product: 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 FCPS caved for tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyBo Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, SnowDreamer said: FCPS caved for tomorrow Isn’t onset well after dark tomorrow?? Or is this still from the previous storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 52 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: It's an awful way to word it. Why not stick with the original designation - 10 percent chance? I'm not surprised honestly but this one is beyond dumb. Why do any of them at all. Make a forecast and go with it. We’ve had this discussion a million times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 26 minutes ago, Negnao said: Hey 6.8” for me with my 20:1 ratios! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3k NAM gets the coastal associated band going fast enough that it overlaps with the SW associated banding and limits the subsidence zone giving the entire area a nice 3-5” snowfall. That’s the best case scenario but I still find it more likely there is a gap between bands with a general ~2” with two zones of 3-5” on either side. Still a general 2-5” snowfall is fine and some places in here will be near median snowfall by the weekend with a pretty favorable pattern ahead. In a Nina no less when a a week ago people were talking about the prospects of a seasonal shutout! The sky isn’t falling. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 6 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: FCPS caved for tomorrow Tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, psuhoffman said: The sky isn’t falling. That’s what I want to see tomorrow night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
understudyhero Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Tomorrow? Pwc called it for Thursday citing widespread power outages for where the staff lives as a primary reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Hey 6.8” for me with my 20:1 ratios! Where’s your house Winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, understudyhero said: Pwc called it for Thursday citing widespread power outages for where the staff lives as a primary reason. Three week holiday break. Sure why not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA Mad Man Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Tomorrow? Yeah. I think this is more about rising COVID numbers (keeping kids out of school) under the cover of weather-related issues). They will almost certainly cancel Friday as we should get 2-5" of the good stuff. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, understudyhero said: Pwc called it for Thursday citing widespread power outages for where the staff lives as a primary reason. FCPS said this: Across Fairfax County, we continue to receive reports of roadways, sidewalks and pathways that remain unsafe for our students. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Where’s your house Winter I live in Winchester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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