yoda Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 12z WRF-ARW2 has some definite banding as the snow arrives 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, yoda said: 12z WRF-ARW2 has some definite banding as the snow arrives do we even use that one? I mean if its good sure why not...just don't remember it being mentioned much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 15 Pee-wee models discussed in the last 2 pages…God help us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, yoda said: 12z WRF-ARW2 has some definite banding as the snow arrives Tomer Burg on Twitter has been hammering this home for the past couple of days. Global models might be a too dry/under estimating some banding that short term CAMS could pick up on. (Yes, he has a New England focus, but the same applies for I-95 crew) 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdcrob Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 When was the last time DC and South had snow falling on snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 10 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z WRF-ARW2 has some definite banding as the snow arrives It also runs the low over Richmond and then to Ocean City, MD, unlike most other models that keep the low farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Most important RGEM run of the last three days incoming! 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 12z Icon has a nice area of mod-heavy snow that traverses southern/central va at hours 39-42 and then up into the DC crew at hr 45. Low goes from GSO to VA Beach. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 15 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: 15 Pee-wee models discussed in the last 2 pages…God help us Wow, one real storm and people wanna skip the JV models. Are you kidding me? This hobby in the mid Atlantic DEMANDS us to agonize over half inch shifts on pee wee models. BTW icon is a perfect little commute wrecker/school closing kinda storm. 6 hours of snow right around rush hour with good temps leading in. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Eh. Its like 3 hours of snow though. Such a quick mover. As I’ve always told my girlfriend, it’s about intensity, not duration 1 20 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 17 minutes ago, wdcrob said: When was the last time DC and South had snow falling on snow? Not sure about DC, but I recorded 1.6" on 1/17/19, 4 days after DCA recorded a double digit snowfall. I could probably find the total, but that seems like the last time. A lot of our recent futility stems back to the period after the 18-19 winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Not sure about DC, but I recorded 1.6" on 1/17/19, 4 days after DCA recorded a double digit snowfall. I could probably find the total, but that seems like the last time. A lot of our recent futility stems back to the period after the 18-19 winter. I recorded 1.5" of "snow on snow" with this, as well. Had 10" from the January 12-13 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 6 minutes ago, mattie g said: I recorded 1.5" of "snow on snow" with this, as well. Had 10" from the January 12-13 storm. I literally put "freshen up the snowcover" in my notes for that event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Updated LWX AFD: Quote .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... CHILLIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE FAST ON ITS HEELS. A POTENT JETMAX AND SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET WILL WILL DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS AND MIDWEST THURSDAY. THIS WILL CARVE OUT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE DAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE DAY AS WELL. THE SHORTWAVE AND JETMAX WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS AND TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY EVENING AND OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE LIKE A MILLER B TYPE LOW. THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO PUT OUR AREA IN THE FAVORABLE REGION OF THE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL JET FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. ALSO, THERE MAY BE ADDED LIFT FROM THE COASTAL LOW, OR AT LEAST SOME LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AROUND 850MB (WHICH CAN BE SEEN IN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE). THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COLD AND DRY AIR FOR THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE SNOW, AND SNOW IS LIKELY TO ACCUMULATE FOR MOST OF THE CWA. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS, CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY, AND THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. AS OF NOW, IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SET UP OVER THESE AREAS, AND THAT WILL ALSO COMBINE WITH HIGHER SLR'S (ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS) TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL TOTALS. THERE WAS CONSIDERATION FOR ISSUING A WATCH FARTHER NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL VA/SOUTHERN MD AND THE WASHINGTON DC METRO AREAS. HOWEVER, LOWER SLR'S COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM KEPT CONFIDENCE BELOW 50 PERCENT FOR WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET. THIS WILL BE RE-ASSESSED LATER TODAY. HOWEVER, 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS, AND THAT WILL IMPACT TRAVEL, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MD, EASTERN WV, AND NORTHERN VA, ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS. HOWEVER, WITH THE BETTER SYNOPTIC LIFT MOST LIKELY SETTING UP TO THE SOUTH, THAT KEPT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR A WATCH IN THOSE AREAS AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH JUST SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG/WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. HOWEVER, WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING THERE WILL BE ISSUES WITH SNOW COVERED SURFACES THAT ARE UNTREATED. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH, AND THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL CAUSE BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH, BUT IT WILL BE COLD. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3K NAM has the Lo developing just in time for some back building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3k NAM has a Montgomery/Howard/Carroll/Fairfax/Baltimore county jackpot. Disregard the snow map panel in this image. It still snows after this screencap. Cold powder. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Philly to Boston could easily get a 6+ event from this. We may be struggling to get 2. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Amped said: Philly to Boston could easily get a 6+ event from this. We may be struggling to get 2. The king (GFS) begs to differ. DC gets more than Boston and nyc this run. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Amped said: Philly to Boston could easily get a 6+ event from this. We may be struggling to get 2. Keep the good news coming! 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Keep the good news coming! We really need a Debbie Downer emoticon 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Keep the good news coming! Yeah I guess no attention was paid to the last couple of suites that have taken their coastal piece away. We're almost better off with some of the 12z runs that just bring in a slug of precip through much like WAA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 12z NBM increases an inch or so over 06z run for most of the CWA 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: We really need a Debbie Downer emoticon Absolutely. We have members here that have thousands of posts over many years and never have they ever had 1 positive post. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, yoda said: 12z NBM increases an inch or so over 06z run for most of the CWA How many more models can you drag out? Any AVN or ETA? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: How many more models can you drag out? Any AVN or ETA? Lol NBM is National Blend of Models... so I assume that this would be an excellent resource 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, HighStakes said: Absolutely. We have members here that have thousands of posts over many years and never have they ever had 1 positive post. I might be wrong about this but i don't think amped has been correct on any call in the last 10 years 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 37 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: As I’ve always told my girlfriend, it’s about intensity, not duration What happens when she gets neither?. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, yoda said: Lol NBM is National Blend of Models... so I assume that this would be an excellent resource True. It is a valid piece of current guidance that is used by NWS WFOs, not some off or old model that nobody uses. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Absolutely. We have members here that have thousands of posts over many years and never have they ever had 1 positive post. 4 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: I might be wrong about this but i don't think amped has been correct on any call in the last 10 years He should change his name to damp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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